Quake's first seconds may show its strength

Getting the word out
Another key to the prediction system is that not everyone sits atop the spot where an earthquake originates, and the waves of an earthquake travel much more slowly than the light-speed communications that could send a warning.

If a rupture occurs at the extreme northern end of the 800-mile San Andreas fault, for example, the shaking could take 80 seconds, traveling about 2 miles per second, to reach San Francisco. Such a far-off event might not destroy the City by the Bay. But no matter where the epicenter, there would be a window for warning most of the ultimate victims.

"It is more likely than not that there would be greater than 20 seconds warning for the earthquakes most damaging to the city of San Francisco," Allen's team states on its web site.

Allen said at least a year of further testing is needed before a real warning system could go live.

He envisions using the Internet to transmit information of a quake. A computer at the other end would interpret the warning for the specific location and estimate timing and intensity of the anticipated shaking. There might be multiple warning methods.

"Cell phone towers could determine the impact of the earthquake for the area they cover and transmit a warning to the cell phones within range," Allen said.

Allen is working with the U.S. Geological Survey to determine how accurate the warnings from his Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) would be.

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