Which way will America's voters go?

Clash over illegal immigrants
Kilgore has run ads calling for a crackdown on illegal immigrants and he has accused his Democratic opponent, Kaine, of being unwilling to carry out the death penalty if elected governor.

After Monday's rally Kaine told reporters that Kilgore's use of the illegal immigration issue was “a late hail Mary pass."

“If my opponent really wants to do something about illegal immigration, he ought to take the opportunity when he is standing on stage with President Bush tonight to say to him, 'the federal government should follow and enforce the immigration laws.' They’re intentionally not enforcing the laws and they’re dumping the cost and consequences on state and local governments,” Kaine said.

State Senator Russell Potts Jr., a maverick Republican, is also on the ballot as an independent.

While you wait for Tuesday’s results, you can ponder last Tuesday’s election in Colorado.

By a narrow margin, Colorado voters approved a ballot measure which relaxed strict limits on taxes and spending. The Taxpayer Bill of Rights, known by its acronym TABOR, was enacted in 1992 and has been one of the most stringent controls on state spending in the nation.

Using a formula based on population growth and inflation, TABOR capped the amount of revenue the state was allowed to keep each year and required the surplus to be refunded to taxpayers.

The referendum approved by Colorado voters last week will allow the state to keep revenue in excess of the cap for the next five years.

Lessons from Colorado
“Colorado is moving to the middle,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli, sizing up last Tuesday’s results.

By passing TABOR in 1992, “we in Colorado presaged the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994. The era of the 1990s was dominated by Republicans out here.”

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Last Tuesday’s outcome, he said, makes the state more competitive in next year’s congressional and gubernatorial elections.

One of the measures on the ballot this Tuesday in California is a TABOR-like spending limit, which Schwarzenegger supports. That measure would also give the governor more power to cut state spending.

There are plenty of other ballot initiatives for California voters to ponder:

• Proposition 73 would amend the state constitution by prohibiting abortion for a minor until 48 hours after her physician notifies her parent or legal guardian, except in an medical emergency.
• Proposition 74 would increase the length of time from two school years to five before a teacher could be granted tenure.
• Proposition 75 would curb campaign contributions by public employee labor unions. Union leaders would need to get prior written consent from individual members for their dues money to be used for political purposes.
• Finally, Proposition 77 would take the drawing of congressional district lines out of the hands of the heavily Democratic state legislature and hand it to a panel of retired judges. (A similar measure is on the ballot in Ohio.)

Bruce Cain, Director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley, said that three of Tuesday’s ballot initiatives have national resonance.

The curb on unions using member dues for political campaign is important for “its implications for whether unions are still strong enough to repel attacks after the failure to win the (gubernatorial recall) election for the Democrats in 2004 and the split in the union leadership this past summer.”

The outcome on Proposition 77 is important, Cain said, “for its take on whether redistricting reform is the next wave, as some would hope, and for the possibility that new competitive seats in California might help swing the House against the Republicans if things do not turn around for Bush in the next year.”

And finally, the vote on the abortion measure is significant, Cain said, to see whether “a blue state like California accepts this restriction on abortion in the context of a likely Supreme Court debate over Roe v. Wade related to (Supreme Court nominee Samuel) Alito.”

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