NASA sets schedule for handling asteroid threat

Will it make impact?
Asteroid-watchers may be able to rule out a collision entirely as early as next year, when Apophis is in a good position for further observations. However, the key observations will come in 2013, when astronomers can analyze subtle changes in the asteroid's orbit. If that analysis shows there's still a significant chance of impact in 2036, NASA would send a radio-equipped probe toward a 2019 rendezvous with the asteroid, and collect a year's worth of data about its position.

"With the use of these transponder data, the 2036 impact could be definitively ruled out (or in) by 2020," Cleave said in her letter.

If the impact is "ruled in," NASA would proceed with the deflection probe. "Although the precise method and timeline of a deflection effort cannot be established in this early stage, the recent experience of Deep Impact, which went from initial planning to successful impact on Comet 9P/Tempel 1 in less than seven years, is relevant," Cleave said.

One way or another, NASA would try to push the comet out of a path leading to the 2029 keyhole. The letter explained that "it would be far easier to accomplish a deflection mission prior to the 2029 close approach to avoid any potential 2036 collision."

Of course, chances are that the Apophis affair will turn out like previous asteroid alarms have — with more detailed observations eventually ruling out the threat. Even in that case, NASA may decide to go ahead with the radio probe or the deflection probe anyway, for the sake of science rather than planetary survival.

Concerns remain
Schweickart said the B612 Foundation — which takes its name from an asteroid mentioned in Antoine de Saint-Exupery's "The Little Prince" — still had concerns about threats from near-Earth objects in general, and about Apophis in particular.

He worried that the funding might not be available to make high-quality radar readings of Apophis by 2013 — particularly readings from the Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico, the world's largest single radio dish. "It's no secret that Arecibo is fairly precarious right now, and especially the radar function, because that is not needed for the bulk of radio astronomy," Schweickart said.

The B612 Foundation said the National Science Foundation should make sure there is reliable radar capability "to support early warning of pending NEO [near-Earth object] impacts and rational deflection mission planning."

Schweickart said NASA should also boost research into advanced propulsion methods that might come into play for deflecting near-Earth objects — such as Project Prometheus, the nuclear propulsion program that was recently pared back.

Who should be in charge?
Finally, Schweickart and the B612 Foundation said the responsibility for protecting Earth from hazardous asteroids and comets should be officially assigned to a capable U.S. government agency. That agency might turn out to be NASA or the Department of Defense, Schweickart said, but "from a bureaucratic point of view, the candidate might be Homeland Security."

Schweickart said the cost of fending off dangerous near-Earth objects would be far less than the cost of cleaning up after this year's hurricanes — and would produce spin-offs in the form of scientific insights as well as next-generation propulsion and power systems.

"The development of that technology is not like the development of a levee around New Orleans, which serves only one function," he said.

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