Bob Neumeier

Now that post positions have been set for the Breeders' Cup, let’s take a glance at our sometimes-sharp crystal ball and offer an analysis. Keep in mind that the handicapping has been done with a “fast” main track and "soft-to-yielding” turf in mind. The forecast calls for dry, cool weather, but in the New York metro area that can change in a minute.

Juvenile Fillies
Most prep races have been extraordinarily slow for this division. They have been run in fast early/slow late race shapes, not particularly unusual for two-year-olds. The co-favorites Folklore (5-2) and Adieu (3-1) possess the best early speed, which allows them to separate from the opposition, none of whom have shown any ability to come from off-the-pace in their respective preps. Although Adieu has a 2-1 advantage over Folklore in their rivalry, the public will make the latter the favorite off her 14-length romp in the Matron. Still, they are tough to separate.

The critical question is, is there a filly that can sit chilly off the contested early pace and run by the favorites down the lane? At first glance, Original Spin (6-1) with Jerry Bailey aboard appears to fit that mode off her rallying win in the Grade 3 Arlington Lassie at a flat mile. Unfortunately, the 26-second final quarter-mile does not inspire confidence.

The California fillies Wild Fit (6-1) and Diamond Omi (12-1) appear overmatched on speed figures and need to make dramatic leaps in form. She Says it Best (15-1), Sensation (8-1), and Along the Sea (20-1) figure to get chewed up chasing Adieu and Folklore.

That leaves the Canadian filly Knights Templar (12-1) as the only filly that can challenge the top two speedballs. She ran a legit figure around two turns at Woodbine but on the lead, a place she will unlikely occupy on BC day.

If, however, trainer Danny Vella can get her to relax for jockey Gary Stevens off the hot, early fractions, I believe this is the one filly that can spring the upset. If you like her chances, you’ll have to buck several significant historical trends — early speed and favorites have done very well in the Juvenile Filly division.

1-2-3: Knight’s Templar, Adieu, Folklore
Longhsot specials: Knight’s Templay 12-1, Original Sin 6-1

Juvenile
There is only one knock on the odds-on chalk First Samurai — he will be vastly overbet. That fact alone should send value players sprinting to the windows to find a way to beat the impressive winner of the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 and exhibited an ability to relax off a suicidal pace in the sloppy Champagne.

Slide show   Images of the Triple Crown See images from the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

With speedballs Brother Derek (20-1), Dawn Of War (20-1), Dr. Pleasure (20-1), Henny Hughes (5-1), and Private Vow (8-1), you can bank on a crazy pace. First Samurai has thwarted the freaky fast Henny Hughes in both the Hopeful and Champagne, but he has yet to tackle the Steve Asmussen-trained Private Vow. Are they comparable? On Aug. 7 at Saratoga at six furlongs, First Samurai beat a sprinter called Trippi Appeal by six lengths. Three weeks later at the Spa at seven furlongs,  Private Vow beat Trippi Appeal by five and a half lengths.

Speed will not win. Sorcerer’s Stone ( 12-1) is an intriguing longshot based on a 24-second final quarter-mile posting in the Arlington Washington Futurity. He should be closing from off the back markers. So should Merv Griffin’s Stevie Wonderboy (8-1) off an eye-catching five-length romp in the Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs, again off the pace. But closing ground at six and seven furlongs does not guarantee that said horse will rally at a 1 1/16 miles.

First Samurai will also be challenged by three superb European trainers. I don’t know how good Aidan O’Brien’s Ivan Denisovich (12-1),  John Gosden’s Leo (20-1), or Criquette Head’s Set Alight (20-1) are, but is their current form any less appealing than last year’s winner, Wilko? It’s just another variable in the path of First Samurai. This result could pay telephone numbers.

1-2-3: Sorcerer’s Stone, First Samurai, Private Vow
Longshot specials: Sorcerer’s Stone (12-1), Private Vow, Stevie Wonderboy (8-1), any of the Euros

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