Bali blasts are sign of weak terror crackdown

In some of the tsunami-affected areas, such as Banda Aceh, there was a strong separatist movement there. Is there any connection between the devastation wrecked by the tsunami and the strength of the Islamic fundamentalists? Or is there any connection between the separatist groups and the fundamentalists at all?
I would not say that the tsunami affected the strength of terrorism.

The tsunami hit northern Indonesia, in the Banda Aceh region on the island of Sumatra. There were rebels in Banda Aceh who had been agitating for more than a decade, at times violently, for independence from Indonesia. But, in the past year, since the tsunami, there have been agreements made with the rebels and a partial withdrawal of troops, as part of that agreement by the government of Indonesia. So, that situation seems to have been defused to a large part.

The rebels of Banda Aceh were much more keen on having autonomy or an independent state. They were really not targeting foreigners necessarily. They were certainly not tied to Jemaah Islamiyah, which has been active both in Jakarta and Bali.

You mentioned tourism, how badly do you think this latest attack will affect the tourist industry in Bali?
I think it will have a worse effect on the tourism industry than in 2002. That attack was viewed by many as being a one-time incident.

Granted, it had a horrific effect — with more than 200 killed and hundreds injured — but this incident showed that it can happen again, in the same place, same time, under the same circumstances. 

It’s sad because it’s an island that really appeals to tourists and the people have good relations, by and large, with the hundreds of thousands who visit every year.

What kind of progress has been made in the investigation?
It does seem that the Indonesian police have learned a lot from the recent spate of attacks over the last three years.

Already they have been out interviewing survivors of the attacks in hospitals. We’ve seen pictures of them sifting through sand on the beach where one of the attacks took place.

The police have also handed out photographs of the three heads of the individuals who are believed to have carried out these suicide bombs. The heads are in remarkably good shape so that they can get a sense of who these individuals were, and identification should be possible. Those are going to be a good lead for police.

They also have very chilling home video that was shot of an individual walking inside one of the restaurants, with what appears to be a large waist belt, and then an explosion went off. So, that video should provide some evidence in trying to track down who is tied to these attacks. 

As I said, they are looking closely at Jemaah Islamiyah, which is a very active but very shadowy group with links to al-Qaida. They are very open about their goal of trying to create an Islamic state in South East Asia that would take up parts of the southern Philippines and parts of Malaysia as well as Indonesia, so creating an Islamic caliphate, if you will, in South East Asia. 

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