MSNBC.com

Oct. 1, 2005 - It had to happen. Just as a declining stock finds its “floor,” the point where the faith of hard-core supporters buttresses the price from falling any farther, President George W. Bush had to find his. And the new NEWSWEEK poll suggests he has.

In the wake of what was widely seen as an inept government response to Hurricane Katrina, the president’s approval rating sank three weeks ago to a NEWSWEEK poll record low, dipping to just 38 percent. But the new NEWSWEEK poll, taken on Thursday and Friday nights, after the indictment of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, shows the president’s support bolstered slightly, up to 40 percent. With a four-point margin of error, two points is not considered “statistically significant,” but tell that to the White House. Polling is all about momentum, and the president has clearly stopped the slide.

How he did he do it? Partly, Americans believe he has done a better job handling Hurricane Rita and her aftermath. While 49 percent disapprove of Bush’s response to Rita (42 percent approve), after Katrina the numbers were more dire, with just 37 percent of Americans approving of the president’s actions and 57 percent disapproving. And a majority of Americans, 57 percent, believe that after the hurricane doubleheader and the departure of former FEMA Director Michael Brown, the federal government is “better able to respond to a major hurricane or other natural disaster” in the future.

In addition to the president’s action offensive--he’s visited the devastated Gulf region more than a half-dozen times--most Americans may simply not link the president to DeLay. Another possible explanation is that after weeks of strident criticism of the president, the Republican base is rallying round their man. Republicans’ renewed support is obvious in the small approval rebound in the president’s area of greatest strength: 51 percent of Americans approve of his policies on terrorism and homeland security in the new poll, compared to 46 percent three weeks ago. While that’s still less than his historical average, somewhere north of 60 percent when it comes to homeland security and terrorism, it’s going in the right direction.

And the deterioration in the president’s other usual areas of strength has at least stabilized: 50 percent of Americans say he has “strong leadership qualities,” compared to 49 percent three weeks ago; 50 percent say he is “honest and ethical, unchanged from three weeks ago; and 43 percent say he “cares about people like [them],” versus 42 percent three weeks ago.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that Republicans’ support, while halting the president’s fall, even after the indictment of DeLay, isn’t resuscitating Bush’s political fortunes.

Despite a much more hands-on presidential approach after Hurricane Rita, a competence gap may be opening for the president. When given a choice, 49 percent of Americans in the new NEWSWEEK Poll say Bush is “a bad manager who doesn’t know enough about what’s going on around him and below him.” Forty-three percent say he’s a “good manager who focuses on what’s important and delegates well.”

More Americans still disapprove of the president’s handling of problems caused by Rita than approve (49 percent vs. 42 percent.) And, across the board, most of his most visible policies only pull the support of a third of the country: on the economy, 35 percent approve; on Iraq, 33 percent; on energy policy, 28 percent.

More worrisome still, the base that provides the floor to the president’s support are critical of their own party these days. For instance, a 49-percent plurality of Republicans says their party is “too close to oil companies” and a 53-percent majority says it’s “too close to big business.”

Those party members are the ones susceptible to being sliced off by the opposing party in an election year--say, 2006, when the midterm Congressional elections roll around. (Democrats do not seem to be as disparaging of their party; majorities of Democrats say their party is not too close to “labor unions,” 51 percent, or “minority interest groups,” 50 percent.)

Why the bout of GOP self-criticism? The DeLay indictment isn’t a boon to Republican self-esteem. While a third of Americans aren’t sure what to make of the charges that DeLay conspired to violate Texas election laws (10 percent aren’t aware of the charges and 23 percent say they don’t know whether he is guilty or a victim of a political vendetta), even 21 percent of Republicans believe DeLay “probably engaged in serious wrongdoing” (not surprisingly, 59 percent of Democrats do.) Also not surprising, a plurality of Republicans, 47 percent, believe this is “more likely a case of DeLay’s political opponents wanting to embarrass him.” But overall a plurality of Americans, 39 percent, says he probably engaged in serious wrongdoing.

Still, a healthy majority, 63 percent, believe that if DeLay is exonerated, he should return to his post as Majority Leader. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans feel that way and, perhaps surprisingly, 50 percent of Democrats agree.

The good news for the Republicans is that Americans don’t see the GOP-controlled Congress or the Bush White House as any more corrupt than most congresses or administrations: 56 percent say the GOP-controlled Congress will turn out to be about the same as the previous Democratic-controlled Congress, 23 percent say it will be more corrupt, 15 percent says less. And 56 percent say the ethical conduct of members of Congress has “stayed the same” in recent years, 34 percent say it has declined and 7 percent say it has improved.

The White House can’t exactly celebrate the numbers in the latest NEWSWEEK poll: only 31 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the way things are going in the United States, 61 percent are dissatisfied. But, three weeks ago, only 28 percent were satisfied. And the important thing in opinion polls is momentum. (Three weeks ago, two-thirds of Americans were dissatisfied.) That the bleeding seems to be staunched is good news for the administration. Even better news: the president’s approval rating may be at 40 percent, but Congress’s stands at 32 percent.

Still, the president’s legacy is far from assured. True, the one area where he enjoys the support of a healthy majority of Americans is in his appointments to the Supreme Court: 57 percent of Americans approve, while only 28 percent disapprove, where his living legacy will hand down laws affecting Americans for a generation. But 43 percent of Americans believe history will see George W. Bush as a “below average president;” 35 say average and only 19 percent say above average.

Pundits continue to debate whether Bush’s missteps in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina will have lasting political consequences for the Republican Party. The new NEWSWEEK poll suggests they won’t. Perhaps the best news for the president in this fall of his discontent is that Americans are more than happy to give a “do over.” Either that or we have short memories. In the NEWSWEEK poll three weeks ago, only 38 percent of Americans approved of the president’s handling of the problems caused by Katrina. This week that number rose to 41 percent. Two months ago, 45 percent of Americans thought Karl Rove--remember him?--was “guilty of a serious offense” after reports emerged of his alleged involvement in leaking the name of Valerie Plame, an undercover CIA agent. This weekend, only 37 percent of Americans thought Rove was guilty; and a 41-percent plurality said they didn’t know.

Most importantly, in the last poll, in the midst of the Hurricane Katrina debacle, when registered voters were asked which party they would vote for if the Congressional elections were held that day, 50 percent said they would vote for the Democrat; only 38 percent said they would vote for the Republican. This week: Democrats, 47; Republicans, 42.

The gap is narrowing. Why? Maybe it’s because with time, the pain of Katrina, for most of us anyway, has receded. Maybe it’s because the president is getting back in the game (59 percent of Americans say the president is paying the same amount of attention to his job in his second term as he did in his first; 24 percent say he is paying less and 14 percent say more.) Or maybe it’s because the Democrats don’t seem to have an alternative plan to attract wavering Republicans or independents. Or maybe it’s simply because the president has found his floor.

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,004 adults aged 18 and older between Sept. 29-30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.