Fall shopping still sluggish at retailers

Unenticing fashions
Shoppers are also unimpressed with fall fashions. The season’s lineup — which includes boxier jackets and Victorian style looks like high-collared lace blouses, all in dark colors like brown — are far more conservative than last year’s bright-colored body-conscious clothing. Even when the cold weather comes, some analysts are not sure how much shoppers will buy.

“Forest greens and browns just don’t jump out at you,” said Marshal Cohen, chief analyst at NPD Group, Inc., a market research company based in Port Washington, N.Y.

Julie Lin, from Manhattan, agrees, noting she’s just not into brown, and doesn’t like “retro” clothing like lace up boots.

“The aesthetic is more difficult to pull off,” said the 26-year-old, who says she will probably buy only a coat this fall. She added she prefers more “cleaned up, modern looks.”

Cumella is more bullish on fall’s trends, reporting solid sales of items like velvet jackets and flowy skirts. But she said those fashions only make up a small part of the overall business for many merchants and are not enough to significantly boost profits.

Cumella said sales of basic items like denim, suits, and sweaters have fallen below stores’ expectations, and she hopes that a cold snap will ignite business.

That may not happen. Even before Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast more than two weeks ago, consumers were struggling to fit higher gasoline prices into their budgets, hurting low-price stores like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. That strain was more evident in overall August sales figures, which were solid but below the pace for the first six months of the fiscal year.

Worries about consumer spending escalated after Katrina, whose costs are being played out in near-record energy prices, snarled shipping traffic, which threatens to push food prices higher, and lost jobs. Analysts are concerned that consumers’ financial pressures will worsen this winter when consumers get slammed with their home heating bills.

Allocca, a publicist, said she is already spending $160 more per month compared to last year to fill up the tank in her Volvo. In Katrina’s aftermath, she said she will be more on guard when she spends.

An AP-Ipsos poll, conducted between Sept. 16 through Sept. 18, revealed that 65 percent of the 1,000 people surveyed expected that gasoline price increases will cause financial hardship in the next six months, with 39 percent of that group describing it as “serious.” Only 34 percent said it would not cause financial hardship. One percent said they were not sure.

As for higher food prices, 44 percent of those polled said it would cause financial hardship in the next six months, compared with 55 percent, who said it would not. One percent of the respondents said they weren’t sure.

The survey also found that 58 percent polled expected the sharp increase in gasoline prices after Hurricane Katrina will be long-term, while 41 percent thought it would be short-term. One percent said they weren’t sure.

Amid such worries, two retail forecasts predicted slower growth in holiday sales from last year.

The National Retail Federation projected holiday sales, which encompass November and December, to increase 5 percent, less than the 6.7 percent gain in 2004.

Ernst & Young LLP estimated that total holiday retail sales will rise between 6 percent and 7 percent, compared to last year’s 8.3 percent increase.

The good news for consumers will be that the nation’s retailers are expected to be more aggressive about discounting from the start of the holiday season. But they better be very generous for shoppers like Allocca.

“I am looking for more than 40 percent off,” the 35-year-old said.

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