Disaster-prone cities worry about next big one

New doubts in savvy L.A.
Los Angeles, which has been through earthquakes, wildfires, and riots, is as well prepared as any city for a large-scale disaster. All kinds of heavy equipment and a satellite communications system are available to Los Angeles County. Thousands of National Guard and California Highway Patrol officers are based in Los Angeles.

But Katrina made even officials there think again. They now recommend, for instance, that residents keep five to seven days of food and water on hand instead of the three days’ worth that were previously recommended.

Katrina turned to fiction the comforting idea that “Uncle Sam is going to ride to the rescue,” said Los Angeles City Councilman Jack Weiss, who has written a report for the city on preparing for terrorism. “That’s the message to every city as a result of Katrina.”

There were other messages. After seeing New Orleans residents refuse to leave their homes, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he’d “get a court order, if we have to,” to get people out.

Bracing for the long haul
The mayor of Moore, Okla., Glenn Lewis, heard another message: Citizens, he said, should increase sevenfold the amount of food and supplies they store at home — three weeks’ worth, instead of the previously recommended three days’ — “after we saw the disaster in Louisiana.”

His town is in the heart of tornado country. A twister that hit Moore in October 1998 damaged more than 100 homes, and a massive tornado the following May did more than $1 billion in damage and killed about 40 people.

“You have to have a local plan,” Lewis said. “If you’ve got to wait on FEMA or the state and you don’t have a plan, you’re going to wait a long time. It will seem like forever.”

Self-sufficiency has been turned into a formal public awareness campaign in San Francisco by Mayor Gavin Newsom — based on the theme of “72 hours,” the amount of time he believes people should presume it will take for outside help to arrive in the event of a massive earthquake.

“What we’re asking people to do is to be prepared to take care of themselves and their families (for that length of time) ... so that we can focus on rescues, focus on putting fires out,” said Anne Marie Conroy, director of San Francisco’s Office of Emergency Services and Homeland Security.

New focus on the poor, immobile
Disaster planning and infrastructure improvements are business as usual in the Bay Area. Even so, Katrina has helped officials focus their planning. Since Katrina, Conroy and others have shifted their thoughts to the problem of displaced citizens.

“Every time there’s a major event like the London bombings, the tsunami and now, Katrina, we always go back and revisit our plans,” Conroy said, “and we always go back and look at what went right and what went wrong .... and adjust our plans.”

Linda Johnson, who lives with her husband and two cats in a rented one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco’s Mission District, said Katrina has made her realize she needs to gather together in one accessible place her scattered disaster supplies.

“I think it’s really important for people to take advantage of this window of opportunity, when they’re so aware of what disasters can do to families,” she said. “Our family doesn’t own a car, so we would really need to connect with our friends and loved ones to make a plan for evacuation if we needed to.”

Volcanic threat looms over Northwest
Farther north, Washington state’s most populous cities, Seattle and Tacoma, live under the double threat of earthquakes and active volcanoes. Two of the country’s three most dangerous volcanoes, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, are in Washington: Mount Rainier and Mount St. Helens. The latter erupted about 20 years ago, covering the Portland, Ore., metropolitan area in a blanket of ash. An eruption of Mount Rainier, scientists believe, could send a deadly mudflow down its slopes and could kill thousands.

“A lot of people probably question us, ‘Why do you spend so much time preparing for an event that might never happen?’” said Jody Woodcock with the Pierce County Department of Emergency Management. “My response is, ‘But it could happen.”’

Like the New Orleans flooding, an eruption of Mount Rainier, Woodcock said, “is something we really can’t comprehend.”

The last time such a mudflow — made of melted ice, dirt, rocks and debris, and called a lahar — came down Rainier was 500 years ago. It could happen again at any time, though residents would presumably have several days warning, as volcanic activity can be monitored.

If the mudflow was big enough it could reach Tacoma, but probably not Seattle, where the biggest threat is an earthquake. A strong quake shook Seattle in 2001.

After Katrina, local businesses and volunteers showed an increased awareness of disaster planning and response — flooding local agencies with offers to house evacuees and help in the relief effort. Woodcock and others hope they can tap into these newly discovered resources should a disaster befall the Puget Sound region. To be sure, they will be watching what goes on in Louisiana and Mississippi.

“I think we’ll learn a lot from watching the recovery process,” Woodcock said, “seeing communities completely rebuild. I think emergency managers from around the world are going to be watching.”

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