Katrina may cost as much as four years of war

Full damage remains unknown
They may get mind-boggling answers because Katrina has shattered all the models on picking up the pieces.

Insurers and actuaries have dealt with the wind damage from hurricanes, but not the impact on buildings and roads of an entire city engulfed in bacteria-laced, sewage-tainted water, possibly for weeks.

"An entire metropolitan area flooded is something we don't have a lot of experience with," said Rade Musulin, an actuary with the Florida Farm Bureau.

Among the lingering questions are what will be rebuilt and who does the work; in writing the insurance checks, is it the government or private companies; how long do food stamps and other assistance last; and how much do federal officials provide.

Homes, levees and even the two new light-rail systems in New Orleans have to be repaired or razed.

Cost depends on recovery time
"It depends on how this proceeds," said Dan Crippen, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. "The compensation costs for refugees, you can't keep them in sports stadiums forever. It depends on how quickly they're employed, have homes, how much public assistance. There are so many unknowns here."

The various states and the District of Columbia that have provided a safe haven for evacuees will be sending their bills to Washington. Texas' two senators, in a letter to Bush, asked about reimbursement for enrolling refugees in Medicaid. The city of New Haven, Conn., has estimated that caring for 100 families that it has offered to house would cost $80,000 each, a bill of $8 million.

Mississippi signed a contract for $5.1 million to repair the Interstate Highway 10 bridge in Columbia. If the contractor can finish the work ahead of schedule, a $100,000-a-day bonus is promised.

The images from New Orleans underscore another question. "Who would pay to replace the Superdome?" asked Scott Lilly, a former appropriations staffer, now a senior consultant with the Center for American Progress.

Robert Lichter, a statistician who studies the use and misuse of numbers in public policy, cautioned against reading too much into the early figures.

"Assume that all estimates are self-interested and all estimates are too low," Lichter said, especially those coming out of Washington. "The government is like a contractor — whatever it says, triple."

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