What went wrong in hurricane crisis?

Looking back at it now, at the devastating destruction across the Gulf region, at one of America’s most beloved cities under water, at all the unimaginable  human anguish, it’s hard to conceive that events unfolded as painfully as they did.

Just as in the aftermath of 9/11, tough questions are being asked. How much of the damage done by this catastrophic storm could have been prevented? What did the government know before Katrina hit? What went wrong? And who is accountable? "Dateline" talked to some of those who say Hurricane Katrina didn’t have to turn out the way it did.

Two days after hurricane Katrina struck, the Secretary of Homeland Security seemed almost self-congratulatory about the federal response to the disaster.

On August 31, 2005, Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff said, “We are extremely pleased with the response that every element of the federal government, all of our federal partners, have made to this terrible tragedy.”

But as the days passed, images flooded the airwaves: people stranded, lawlessness in the streets, people without food, water.

Four days after Katrina stuck, the president made his first trip to the region. As he left the White House, he acknowledged that something had gone terribly wrong with the relief effort.

He said: "The results are not acceptable. I'm heading down there right now. We'll deploy the assets necessary to get the situation under control."

But by the time he arrived in the area that same day, he was heaping praise on the man then running the relief effort. “Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job,” he said. “The FEMA Director is working 24 -- they're working 24 hours a day.”

But as more time passed, additional questions would be raised about just how good a job the government did.

Walter Maestri: What happened? How did this breakdown occur? You know, what led to this kind of catastrophe ?

The catastrophe of Katrina may have come as a shock to most Americans, but it should have been no surprise at all to many officials in local, state and federal government.

A prophetic newspaper series
Marc Schleifstein, a reporter for the New Orleans Times-Picayune, says the danger New Orleans was in wasn’t a secret.

In June 2002, he co-authored what can only be called a prophetic five-part front page series warning that a direct hit on New Orleans by a major hurricane was inevitable.

Stone Phillips: Your words three years ago: "Thousands will drown trapped in homes or cars by rising water.  Others will be washed away or crushed by debris. Survivors will end up trapped on roofs, in buildings or on high ground surrounded by water with no means of escape and little food or fresh water perhaps for several days.” I mean, that’s just a part of what you wrote. It sounds exactly like what happened.

Mark Schleifstein, reporter for New Orleans Times-Picayune: It is what happened. And we knew it—we knew that was going happen. 

That’s because hurricanes have battered New Orleans and other towns along the Gulf of Mexico forever. Before Katrina, there were a dozen deadly hurricanes stretching back over a hundred years—to a time when they couldn’t be predicted and didn’t have names. 

When hurricanes weren’t devastating the region, floods were.

The great flood of 1927 displaced more than 300,000 people—many of them ending up in tent cities.

In fact, the threat of hurricanes and flooding was so severe that as far back as the 1700s private landowners began to build a system of levees to protect New Orleans.  Because what was obvious back then, and what we’ve seen again these past ten days, is that New Orleans is uniquely vulnerable to flooding.

Schleifstein: It’s a bowl. And it’s so low—my house is eight feet below sea level behind that levee. So once water tops the levees, you’re filling a bowl. And the more water that pours in, the more water, the higher it gets.  And you can’t get the water out.

Recognizing that threat, in the 1960s, the federal government spent millions around New Orleans to greatly expand the levee system. The goal: to make sure the levees could withstand a major hurricane and hold back the water surge that might accompany it.

One way or another the city survived every major hurricane that came its way: Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, and Ivan just last year.

Forecasters' growing alarm
Two weeks ago, as Hurricane Katrina approached the Gulf coast, forecasters became increasingly alarmed that Katrina was growing into a monster unlike almost any other storm they’d seen before.

Billy Wagner: There's gonna be a tremendous amount of damage. It's a big system. It's a lot bigger than Camille was.

That was the scene inside the National Hurricane Center in Miami as the storm approached.

The experts in Miami weren’t the only ones worried about Katrina. At the same time, in Baton Rouge, another hurricane expert, Ivor van Heerden of Louisiana State University, was running computer models to predict the possible damage. It was looking really bad to him too.

Ivor van Heerden, hurricane expert: On Saturday evening, we put out our first storm search model output that showed the city was going to flood.

Phillips: On Saturday night?

Van Heerden: Saturday night. And we sent out an e-mail to federal agencies, to the state agencies. 

Phillips: So, your model said even on its track Saturday night that a storm surge could lead to flooding in the city of New Orleans.

Van Heerden: Yes.

He sent the e-mail to the Hurricane Center in Miami. There, Max Mayfield, the director, had already issued a public alert, warning this could be the big one.

Max Mayfield, director of hurricane center in Miami: And—you know, we—kept emphasizing that the potential for large loss of life was there. And our headline said, “Potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Katrina.” So that is really hard to let go of loss of life.

He was so concerned he did something he rarely ever does. He called everyone he could think of who could help get the word out. Among them was New Orleans newspaper reporter Mark Schleifstein.

Schleifstein: He said, “Mark, how high is your building and what’s its structural integrity?” And I knew at that point that we were gonna get hit.

He also called Walter Maestri, one of the top emergency relief officials in the New Orleans area.

Walter Maestri, New Orleans relief official: And he said, “Walter, let me tell you right now, I think it’s coming to you.  Be prepared.”   I said, “Max, are you sure?”  He said, “I’m as sure as I can be.”  And I can tell you, Max Mayfield’s not a person who does that lightly.

And he didn’t stop there.

Mayfield: And I did call the Louisiana and Mississippi governors. And Mayor Nagin in New Orleans, just to tell them that this is—the real thing.  I wanted to be sure that I had done everything that I could do to—you know, let people know how serious this was.

On Sunday, as the storm picked up speed, Mayfield even briefed President Bush via video conference.

The president had already declared a state of emergency. And the mayor of New Orleans who had urged people to leave the city voluntarily, now made evacuation mandatory. 

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said, “We are facing a storm that most of us have feared I do want to create panic, but I do want people to understand that this is of the highest nature.”

The next day, Monday, Katrina came ashore.  And early indications were that the city once again had dodged a bullet. But this time the Big Easy had run out of luck.

And the people of New Orleans were about to pay dearly for years of government inaction.

Van Heerden: I hope they apologize to everyone of those people who’ve died unnecessarily because there are thousands, in my opinion, who have died unnecessarily.

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