Will Emmys be ‘Lost’ and ‘Desperate’?

Reality competition
Nominees: “The Amazing Race,” “American Idol,” “The Apprentice,” “Project Runway” and “Survivor”

Who will win: “American Idol.” Though “Survivor” is the father of all primetime reality and remains a ratings force, “Idol” is the cultural phenomenon. More importantly, it makes for edge-of-your-seat entertainment.

Who should win: “American Idol.” “The Amazing Race” has been an Emmy darling, winning the last two years, but enough’s enough. Carrie or Bo? Who’s your choice? That was all anyone could talk about in May. And the finalists of “Race” were … um, were …

Actor, drama
Nominees: Hank Azaria (“Huff”), Hugh Laurie (“House”), Ian McShane (“Deadwood”), James Spader (“Boston Legal”) and Kiefer Sutherland (“24”)

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Who will win: Ian McShane. In this battle of Brits, McShane defeats Laurie in a tight race. Trying to undo the injustice last year of not even nominating him, the Emmys will take a cue from the Golden Globes and give McShane his due.

Who should win: Ian McShane. On the best show on TV, he’s its greatest asset. In any one scene — whether he’s about to kill someone or receiving oral gratification — McShane’s villainous, hilarious and always mesmerizing.

Actress, drama
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (“Medium”), Glenn Close (“The Shield”), Frances Conroy (“Six Feet Under”), Jennifer Garner (“Alias”) and Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”)

Who will win: Frances Conroy. Even though it was the lackluster and whiny last season that’s supposed to be under consideration, here’s a guess that voters will disregard that fact, recall the most recent and revitalized episodes of a few weeks back and place Conroy on top for his stellar work as the dour mom on the recently deceased “Six Feet Under.”

Who should win: Jennifer Garner. Without perennial favorite Edie Falco, this category looks awfully weak. The pick here is for Garner, who deserves a lot of credit for enduring all the stunts and physicality of being a top super spy over the years. Add the fact that she’s been nominated three times before without winning — and with a baby on the way, now’s the time to give Garner her due.

Actor, comedy
Nominees: Jason Bateman (“Arrested Development”), Zach Braff (“Scrubs”), Eric McCormack (“Will & Grace”), Ray Romano (“Everybody Loves Raymond”) and Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”)

Who will win: Jason Bateman. He’s the center of sanity on a show where insanity reins. It’s not easy being the straight man to his character's lunatic siblings and parents, but it’s really Bateman’s strength and cool resolve that makes everyone funnier. (Take away everything previously said if Bateman wins and reads off an emotionless laundry list of 'thank you’s' as he did at the Golden Globes.)

Who should win: Ray Romano. It’s an unpopular choice as many compare him to Jerry Seinfeld, both known more for their writing than acting, but the TV Academy has been known to acknowledge folks for a body of work and no comedy has been funnier than “Raymond” over the last five years. Plus, the show’s last season was as good as ever. Thanks for the great work, Ray.

Actress, comedy
Nominees: Marcia Cross (“Desperate Housewives”), Teri Hatcher (“Desperate Housewives”), Patricia Heaton (“Everybody Loves Raymond”), Felicity Huffman (“Desperate Housewives”) and Jane Kaczmarek (“Malcolm in the Middle”)

Who will win: Marcia Cross. Talk about your great catfights. The infamous Vanity Fair squabble will pale in compare to this throwdown. Hatcher has somehow became the awards darling of the show with Globe and SAG wins but one senses the tide is turning. Cross sealed the deal in the last episode when she painstakingly made the bed and moved at a snail’s pace before taking Rex to the hospital for his final meal.

Who should win: Felicity Huffman. Huffman was great in Aaron Sorkin’s critically beloved but little seen “Sports Night” and she was far and away the character which audience could relate in “Housewives”. Her weekly struggles with giving up her lucrative office job to stay home, keeping the kids in line and trying to be a patient and understanding mom without losing her sanity was spot on. She was the most heartfelt character in a show that sometimes teetered more toward the silly and soapy than what audience really want — a connection to themselves.

Stuart Levine is a senior editor at Daily Variety in Los Angeles.

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