Oscar bait: an early forecast

Battle of the dames
As usual, there will be a hunt for five nominees to fill the best actress category. Rachel Weisz gives her most passionate performance to date in “The Constant Gardener,” Ziyi Zhang is overdue for Oscar recognition, and it’s possible that Diane Keaton (“The Family Stone”), Joan Allen (“The Upside of Anger”) and/or Charlize Theron ( “North Country”) will be in the running again. Amy Adams (“Junebug”) could provide a dark horse here.

The category could also turn into the battle of the dames: Dame Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents” (a backstage theatrical tale that is likely to be heavily promoted by producer Harvey Weinstein) vs. Dame Joan Plowright in “Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont” (a “Separate Tables”-like drama that still needs a distributor). While Dench already has her Oscar, Plowright has been nominated only once before (for a supporting part in “Enchanted April”), and “Mrs. Palfrey” provides her with her biggest, richest film role to date.

Michael Moore failed in his bid last year to get a best-picture nomination for “Fahrenheit 9/11,” but the surprisingly popular and much less controversial “March of the Penguins” stands a chance of becoming the first documentary to be recognized in that category. DreamWorks’ new “Wallace and Gromit” feature, due in October, looks like a contender for best animated feature. So do Tim Burton’s “Corpse Bride,” due in late September, and Disney’s November release, “Chicken Little.”

Some of the year’s most acclaimed movies have had such limited exposure that they seem unlikely to register with Academy voters. Still, Gregg Araki’s “Mysterious Skin” has earned some of the year’s most ecstatic reviews, and some critics have pulled out the stops in praising Gus Van Sant’s fictionalized Kurt Cobain movie, “Last Days.” If they collect year-end critics’ awards, they could wander into Oscar territory as well.

Opportunities for smaller films often depend on which of the official fall releases actually open in time for the Oscar deadline. Many a major-studio “December” release has been pushed into the following year, without suffering fatal consequences. If it's strong enough, “Munich” could become this year’s “The Godfather” — which didn’t make its late-1971 release date but ended up with the Oscar for best picture of 1972.

MORE FROM MOVIE OPINIONS

Does ‘Precious’ stereotype big black women?

Does ‘Precious’ stereotype big black women? Newsweek: The problem with ‘Precious’ When it comes to stardom, Clooney has smarts ‘Saw’ franchise creates buzz, but is it any good? Remembering concert documentaries that rock theGrio: ‘This Is It’ a final act fit for a king Best actress category looks slim for Oscars theGrio: Tyler Perry can’t do bad all by himself Is ‘Wild Things’ too scary for young children? Newsweek: The death of shock cinema   Add Movie opinions headlines to your news reader: