Saudi succession stable, for now

Richard Engel Chief foreign correspondent • Profile

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - King Fahd, the 84-year-old Saudi ruler, was laid to rest in a simple unmarked desert grave after prayers at a packed Riyadh mosque on Tuesday.

The death of Fahd marks the first change at the top in Saudi Arabia in 23 years. NBC News’ Richard Engel discusses how succession is expected to affect stability in the desert kingdom, in the Middle East region and U.S.- Saudi relations.

King Fahd’s half-brother, the former Crown Prince Abdullah, who has been the nation’s de facto ruler for the last 10 years, is now the king. How was such a smooth succession possible?
The succession issue was largely settled a long time ago. The fact that he has been the de facto ruler made for this very smooth transition. Everybody knew that Crown Prince Abdullah would become king. Everyone expected that. So there were no surprises, there were no power struggles.

Fahd has been very ill for a very long time. This issue had been particularly acute over the last two months since he was sick with pneumonia. He was even incubated, so that should give an idea of how problematic the pneumonia was.

At one stage, he appeared to be getting better. Only a week ago he had gotten out of bed, and people thought that was a sign that he was on the road to recovery. But then he died early Monday morning.

So, in the end, it was something of a surprise, but it didn’t create any succession issues.

Now, of course, there are succession issues because they recognize that with Fahd gone, the next people in line are all very old.

We have King Abdullah now, who is himself 81, I believe that is the most accepted figure. Then there is the now-Crown Prince Sultan, who himself is, I’ve seen anywhere between 77 and 80 years old.  He was once treated for colon cancer, so he’s been ill himself.

So, the Saudis recognize that there is a succession issue that they are going to have to address.

We know who No. 1 is — King Abdullah. We know who No. 2 is — Crown Prince Sultan. But before, we also knew who was the No. 3. Now, we don’t know that is. That position has been left vacant, perhaps purposefully.

I am hearing from royal sources that it has been left blank because they haven’t worked out what they are going to do with it yet. There may be a generation shift — they may jump to someone who is much younger than the current kings have been.

Traditionally, all the kings of Saudi Arabia have been sons of the founder of Saudi Arabia and they’ve gone from one son to the next. Now, there could be a shift after we go through these two leaders of going to the next generation — the grandsons or even cousins or another male relative in the royal family.

So, right now, we are in something of a crossroads because they recognize that they are entering a face when there could be rapid turnover of rulers. So, this one was smooth, but there is no guarantee that the next one will be.

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