First glance
There's a whole lot going on in the world today, but not much going on in politics.  Which means that in the political world, all the more attention will be paid to what just happened in Ohio, where a Democratic combat veteran ran for public office criticizing President Bush's conduct of the war, even calling him a "son of a bitch," and came up just short.

The more things seem the same, the more they change.  Unlike John Kerry's loss in Ohio just nine months ago, Paul Hackett's loss to Republican Jean Schmidt in the state's vacant 2nd district is being interpreted as a win for Democrats in some respects.  Chief among them, that Hackett harshly attacked President Bush's conduct of the Iraq war, and voters in this historically conservative, GOP-leaning district didn't appear to penalize him for it, as Schmidt and Republicans urged them to do.  Instead, they came closer to electing Hackett than they have come to electing any Democrat to Congress in decades.  Nonpartisan political analyst Charlie Cook points out to First Read that Hackett may have blurred party lines by airing ads featuring Bush talking about the importance of military service, then showing Hackett in uniform.

Democrats hasten to note -- in their best interests -- that Hackett did not run a single-issue campaign on the war.  Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel tells First Read that although the Iraq combat veteran was uniquely qualified to talk about the war, his message was primarily about the economy and education.  Clearly, though, "the war is not what it was six months ago, or 12 months ago" in terms of being an automatic advantage for Republicans, Emanuel says.  Based on Hackett's tally in a district that gave Bush 64% in 2004, he declares, "no district is safe."

Certain aspects of this special election may have been too particular to call it a classic bellwether, but here's what we do think can be read into Schmidt's close call:

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1) The outcome reflects a shift in the political debate over the Iraq war that might otherwise have gone undetected because Democrats in Washington have refrained from talking much about it, and it's not a central issue in any of the big races of 2005.  Voters, including Republicans, now appear to be more receptive to criticism of the Administration's approach to Iraq -- a change seemingly corroborated by the slight drop in Bush's approval rating between 2004 and now.

The US military passed the 1,800 casualty mark yesterday; 14 Marines already have been killed today.  Political pollsters are starting to focus on swing voters as being either "defeat-averse" or "casualty-averse."  The development of a clear strategy to win the war would probably appeal to the former group, while talk of US troops coming home next year probably appeals to the latter.

2) The outcome shows that Republicans need other major campaign planks besides just standing behind President Bush and criticizing Democrats for criticizing him.  Schmidt did focus on other issues; National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Reynolds praised her, in a (very) brief statement last night, for focusing "on the issues of greatest importance" to the district's voters.  And when Reynolds' committee got involved late in the race, they ran a TV ad charging Hackett with wanting to raise taxes.  But their nationally publicized aim was to "bury" Hackett for talking about Bush the way he did.

3) Bush and congressional Republicans are at a critical point in the 2006 election cycle when Republicans are starting to put their re-election prospects ahead of their president's wishes, and when all eyes are on Bush for signs of lame-duck syndrome.  Some Republicans have already begun distancing themselves from Bush's positions on Social Security and on immigration.  Schmidt's close call might expedite that process.

And 4) to the extent that ethics and the scandals plaguing GOP Gov. Robert Taft's administration kept voters from favoring Schmidt, the national party may worry that the whole Jack Abramoff/Tom DeLay/Bob Ney/dysfunctional House ethics panel ball of wax may do the same in 2006.  In a statement, John Kerry asserted that Hackett's showing "sends a warning signal to the Washington Republican establishment and the Ohio Republican Party that voters... are troubled by the corrupt culture and do-nothing Congress."

President Bush, now based in Crawford, addresses the American Legislative Exchange Council in Grapevine, TX at 1:00 pm ET.  Vice President Cheney, former President Bush and Colin Powell, among others, travel to Saudi Arabia to pay their respects to the royal family after the passing of King Fahd.

Recess politics
In a roundtable interview with the Des Moines Register and several other papers, Bush commented on Social Security, the Roberts family values, the Supreme Court decision on eminent domain, military base closings, and the war in Iraq.

The Washington Times notes how quickly Bolton has gotten to work, and how at the Bolton-Annan meeting yesterday, "tense body language belied a courteous verbal exchange."

Democrats are banging the "shady"/"secretive"/"abuse of power" drum.  Senate Foreign Relations ranking member and potential presidential candidate Joe Biden (D) e-mailed supporters: "It is important to remember that the reason John Bolton didn't get a vote in the Senate is because the administration refused to provide information to which no one disputes the Senate is entitled."  A fundraising solicitation from the Democratic Senate campaign committee asks, "What are they trying to hide?"  And DNC talking points charge that "President Bush abused his power by refusing to provide information needed to answer legitimate questions about John Bolton and our national security."

It was only a matter of time before someone -- odds were on the Washington Post -- took stock of Bush's long stay in Crawford.  The Post reports today that by "historical standards," the trip "is the longest presidential retreat in at least 36 years."  "To critics and late-night comics, [Bush's vacations] symbolize a lackadaisical approach...  The more vociferous among Bush's foes have noted that he spent a month at the ranch shortly before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks...  To Bush and his advisers, that criticism fundamentally misunderstands his Texas sojourns.  Those who think he does not remain in command, aides say, do not understand the modern presidency or Bush's own work habits."

And here's a little recess fun.  The folks at International Strategy & Investment found an academic paper on "Congress and the Stock Market," in which the authors from the Universities of Cincinnati and Missouri assert that the stock market does better when Congress is out of session.  Their main findings:

-- that the daily returns when Congress is out of session tend to be higher;
-- that the effect is "strongly influenced by public opinion of Congress," with higher disapproval ratings correlating with even higher returns when Congress is out of session;
-- that "market returns are more volatile when Congress is in session, and that is entirely accounted for by periods when Congress has an above-average disapproval rating;"
-- and that the CW "holds true, that the market does better under Republicans than Democrats.  That is, the market does better when an unpopular Democratic Congress is out of session than it does when an unpopular Republican Congress is out of session."

"Applying these results," the ISI folks write, "the current market has 2 of 3 factors going for it now.  Congress is out for 5 weeks, and it has a low approval rating.  If it were only a Democratic Congress then it would be very bullish for stocks."  The authors of the study "suggest that policy or regulatory uncertainty is greater when Congress is in session."  And: "They offer another alternative that they admit is less rational, that Congress being in session is, well, depressing."

Ohio-2
Per the AP, Schmidt got 52% to Hackett's 48%.

The Cincinnati Enquirer calls the narrow margin "nothing short of astounding...  The ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan was a central issue in the race, with Hackett criticizing the Bush administration for invading Iraq in the first place and urging a swift training of Iraqi security forces and a speedy withdrawal of U.S. forces, while Schmidt steadfastly supported the Bush administration in all aspects of the war on terrorism.  It was a particularly potent issue in the 2nd Congressional District, where military service is honored and where five families have seen loved ones killed in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Schmidt called her win a "vindication of Bush administration policies."  Cincinnati Enquirer

Also yesterday, as expected, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick finished second in the primary behind Freman Hendrix.  The Detroit Free Press: "Finishing a distant second to Hendrix could prove devastating both to Kilpatrick's psyche and fortunes...  Kilpatrick's showing Tuesday makes him the first mayor since Edward Jeffries in 1947 to finish second in a primary."

The Roberts nomination
The results of John Roberts' Senate Judiciary Committee questionnaire and financial disclosure statement are picked over in this morning's papers.  One factoid: Roberts is worth more than $6 million.  USA Today

Another: he "condemned judicial activism."  - Washington Times

Another: that "the White House had been focusing on him months before a seat came open."  -Washington Post

One possible point of interest: "Roberts's lobbying work for two organizations representing peanut growers.  The lobbying could be of interest in trying to determine what legislation he was engaged to promote or defeat."  - Boston Globe

Also, he still has no recollection of being a Federalist Society member.  And he stayed in Florida less than one week while working on Bush v. Gore.  – New York Times

The Wall Street Journal says the questionnaire shows Roberts painting a "more-measured picture of himself than that emerging from Reagan administration documents, which depict a forceful conservative who as a young Justice Department and White House aide helped mold a legal counterrevolution against liberal judicial trends of the 1950s and 1960s."

Bloomberg says of an interview to be aired today that Bill Clinton "praised" Roberts as "'highly intelligent'" but voiced "reservations about a memo Roberts wrote in 1984 that called for stripping the high court of some of its power" -- the busing memo.  "Clinton said the Senate should explore the memo Roberts wrote as a lawyer in the Reagan administration that argued that Congress should be allowed to bar courts from ordering busing to desegregate schools."  Still: "The overall tenor of the former Democratic president's comments about Roberts was favorable."

The Hill reminds us that no Senate Democrat has said he or she will vote to confirm Roberts, and games out how the party's presidential hopefuls might vote (for the most part, presumably, with the base and against Roberts).

Tom DeLay will appear at Justice Sunday II, and the New York Times covers it from the angle of Roberts' nomination: “Mr. DeLay's planned appearance adds the imprimatur of a top Republican elected official to the event, which seeks to call attention to what its organizers say is the Supreme Court's hostility to Christianity and traditional families in its decisions about abortion, homosexuality and government support for religion… ‘It is certainly not going to help the White House build support for Judge Roberts on Capitol Hill,’ said Jim Manley, communications director for Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader."

Ethics
The Los Angeles Times follows up on the ABC News report that top Karl Rove aide Susan Ralston appeared last week before the grand jury investigating the Plame leak.  The paper notes that special prosecutor Patrick "Fitzgerald may be interested in her testimony for other reasons" beyond efforts to resolve differences between Rove's testimony and others.

The New York Times: "A person sympathetic to Mr. Rove said that the questions seemed typical of those posed by a prosecutor wrapping up the loose ends of an inquiry.”

The Hill reports that "Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.) may have violated ethics rules by using her congressional office to issue a press advisory endorsing a" candidate "for surrogate court judge of Brooklyn, a borough represented in Congress by Velazquez and others."

The values debate
The Washington Post says Bush's support for the teaching of intelligent design along with the teaching of evolution has "invigorated" supporters of ID, while critics of the theory "said there is no scientific evidence to support it and no educational basis for teaching it...  The White House said yesterday that Bush's comments were in keeping with positions dating to his Texas governorship, but aides say they could not recall him addressing the issue before as president...  Bush gave no sign that he intended to wade that far into the debate."

Bush defended his stance on embryonic stem cell research in his interview with the Des Moines Register yesterday: "I am confident I have achieved the right balance between science and ethics...  We'll see how it plays out in the U.S. Congress...  I don't expect everybody to agree with me.'"

The Hill reports on how Bill Frist upset House GOP leaders last Friday with his announcement on stem cell research both because of its substance and timing.  Apparently Frist didn't notify either Hastert or DeLay that his announcement was coming.  And the paper suggests that the discord now may be a preview of more to come when Congress returns and the House passes a bunch of stuff hat the Senate may not act on.

Frist hasn't been invited to address Justice Sunday II, even though it's in Tennessee.  – Los Angeles Times

The Washington Post focuses on Sen. Hillary Clinton's challenge in developing a forward-looking message that negotiates her husband's issues and administration, and also bridges the center-left rift within the Democratic Party.

USA Today says Christian conservatives' efforts to register new voters in Ohio "has alarmed some establishment Republicans who back rival contenders and warn that an assertive Christian right campaign could repel moderate voters the party needs."  Noting that the effort isn't limited to Ohio, the paper says that an "unyielding focus... on such issues as abortion and gay marriage worries Republican loyalists who have other priorities.  Economic conservatives want to lower taxes...; small-government conservatives want to limit the intrusion of government on daily life."

USA Today also covers the rush by states to pass eminent domain laws as part of the backlash against the Supreme Court ruling allowing state and local governments to seize homes for private development.  Alabama's governor signs such a law today.  "The issue has spawned an unusual alliance among conservatives opposed to the principle of government seizing private property and liberals worried that poor people would be the most likely victims."

Oil and gas politics
The Washington Times covers new economic data showing that "[c]onsumers shrugged off record-high gasoline prices and went on a spending spree this summer, splurging especially on new cars."

CNOOC 's decision to drop its bid for US-based Unocal in the face of vocal opposition from some in Congress and the Bush Administration's refusal to referee "could lessen Chinese interest in future deals with U.S. companies and stiffen its resistance to other priorities of the Bush administration and Congress, such as allowing further appreciation in the value of the yuan...  It could also increase China's interest in making energy deals with nations that Washington considers dangerous rogue states, such as Iran and Sudan."  - Washington Post

"The hostile political climate created 'a level of uncertainty that presents an unacceptable risk to our ability to secure this transaction,' CNOOC said in a statement...  'Are we pissed off?  Yes,' said Tim Payne, a CNOOC spokesman in Hong Kong."  - Los Angeles Times

"What finally doomed the CNOOC bid was a provision Congress inserted in the energy bill last week that would have delayed for month’s completion of any CNOOC takeover of Unocal," says the Wall Street Journal.

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