Space tourism market faces realities

By Leonard David

Senior space writer

updated 6:50 p.m. ET June 24, 2005

The welcome sign is up at Mojave, Calif. — the proud home of SpaceShipOne, the piloted craft that achieved the first privately bankrolled suborbital flight.

Last year’s notable suite of runs to the edge of space by the rocket plane has raised expectations of a money-making, booming market for passenger-carrying spaceliners.

Taking the lead in the space travel business is Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic spaceliner operation. It is based on a much larger, multiseat version of SpaceShipOne. Price per passenger seat: $200,000.

Suborbital spaceships not only can whisk tourists to the outskirts of the atmosphere, they can have other advantages too. As spaceports are planted in spots around the planet, there is already chatter about a new form of "point-to-point" express-mail package delivery.

Still, the promise of big-dollar markets for public space travel remains front and center. A study done by a think tank a few years ago underscored that fact. It reported that the overall space tourism market could generate revenues in excess of a billion dollars per year in about a decade and a half. A big chunk of that cash is expected to come from suborbital space tourism.

Turn up the volume
"The biggest difficulty we’ve faced in the space business is the lack of volume," said Peter Diamandis, chairman and founder of the X Prize Foundation, based in Santa Monica, Calif.

Diamandis said that volume brings increased learning, safety, robustness and decreased cost. "The potential for hundreds and thousands of flights driven by the personal spaceflight market will end up benefiting the rest of the space market, from military to satellite launch," he told Space.com.

As more and more people take part in personal spaceflight, Diamandis added, there will be a ripple effect in other sectors. "We are likely to see a decrease in insurance rates as the base of insurable launches increases, a decrease in spaceport range costs, a decrease in materials and components, and a larger skilled workforce."

The bottom line for Diamandis: "Everyone wins."

Early adopters
The budding suborbital and follow-on orbital space travel marketplace has sparked the need for training of businesses and individuals.

That’s the belief of George Tyson, chief executive officer of the Orbital Commerce Project Inc. of Oviedo, Fla. He is developing a school devoted to the training of personnel to take part in the commercial human spaceflight industry.

"Part of this training involves educating the general public," Tyson said. Regarding the market for passenger space travel, don’t expect an immediate rush of folks trying to get to the ticket counter, he predicted.

"As with any new industry, it will start slow," Tyson noted. "The ‘early adopters’ who can afford the initial trips will pave the way for future tourists. Once a company begins to fly tourists and shows a profit, outside investment will flow more freely into the industry."

People making money will accelerate entry to market of new firms, Tyson suggested, providing the impetus for the lowering of prices and increased innovation.

"I predict that we will see orbital tourism three to five years after the first suborbital tourist flight and actual hotels, laboratories … in orbit one to two years after that. A commercial moon base would not be far behind. In other words, I see the human race taking the first steps in becoming a true spacefaring race by the end of this decade," Tyson said.

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