The frightening evolution of al-Qaida

The Zarqawi-bin Laden alliance
After initially failing to make the connections with Zarqawi in the months after the November 2002 shura, al-Qaida succeeded in early 2004, leading to eight months of negotiations and then in October 2004, Zarqawi’s “announcement of good tidings” — his alliance with bin Laden.

“There have been contacts between Shaykh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — may Allah protect him — with the brothers in al-Qaida for 8 months. After an [initial] exchange of viewpoints took place, a catastrophic dispute occurred,” said the statement, sounding much like a diplomatic discussion of an exchange of frank and candid views.

“However, Allah has been benevolent to us in resuming those contacts, and now our noble brothers from Al-Qaida understand the strategy of the Tawheed wal-Jihad Movement in Mesopotamia … and their hearts are pleased by the methods we have used.”

Bin Laden, he said, was his “commander.” He swore “bayat,” or personal fealty, to him and added a recruiting pitch to join “the leading unified brigade of the mujahideen.”

[What was the catastrophic dispute? U.S. intelligence won’t say, but one official hinted at “bad blood” that developed between Zarqawi and, ironically, Setmariam Nasar, the architect of the new al-Qaida. “They don’t like each other,” said one official.]

Technological trademark
Bin Laden was soon providing money and other help to Zarqawi. When Zarqawi left behind communications gear in an escape from American troops six months later, the U.S. military was not surprised to find a bagful of jump drives, small computer drives that can be hidden in shoes or passed by handshakes and yet contain tens of thousands of pages of documents or thousands of maps or hundreds of  short videos. They are an al-Qaida trademark.

Zarqawi, for two years in the top ranks of terrorists worldwide, was now joining the top leadership of al-Qaida as well.  “He is ambitious,” said the senior U.S. intelligence analyst. “He wants a presence in the larger Middle East and Europe — and he is very good.”

What’s next if bin Laden is killed or, less likely, captured? Ayman al Zawahiri, bin Laden’s No. 2, is his designated successor, but he too appears to be out of the operational loop. Other top leaders, Abu Laith al Libbi or Abu Hadi, who brokered the deal with Zarqawi, might step up.  Al-Qaida as an entity might morph further, with its leadership shifting to Zarqawi and its base of operations to Iraq.  Jemaah Islamiya, the Indonesian group, might rise to be the main Islamic terrorist group. Most intelligence services see it as the most dangerous group after al-Qaida or the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

"We are also starting to see al-Qaida operations in West Africa, particularly Nigeria, among indigenous Muslims in South Africa, and in Western Europe. The record shows that the recruits for al-Qaida in Western Europe are not immigrants but among second and third generation, like those captured in Britain and those captured in Spain.

Training in Iraq
Cressey also believes the next attack on the United States may come not from a central al-Qaida plan, but one formed by those who are fighting U.S. troops in Iraq.

“One of the greatest unintended consequences of the war is the development of the new generation of jihadis who have developed their training inside Iraq,” he said. “And [they] are now looking for new targets. So as this new cadre grows and becomes more capable, they may look at the United States as the next target for them. So we're not going to know the answer to that question for several years. But they could become a very important threat to us.”

No matter what, however, said the senior U.S. intelligence official, “al-Qaida the group is in decline, but al-Qaida the movement — the like-mindeds and affiliates — is on the rise. The lines crossed that morning in Madrid. Everything changed that day. Whether we can stop the movement is something that is beyond our military or intelligence capabilities, and we are at the beginning. This struggle will be with us for a generation or more.”

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