Slow pace could spell trouble
Afleet Alex is a stalker who can be expected to be near the back of the pack in the early stages of Saturday’s race. That could put him in a bad position if the pace of the race is slower than the average recent time of 1:12 3/5 for 6 furlongs, a distinct possibility with the withdrawal of the speedy Scrappy T.

There is also reason for concern over Afleet Alex’s staggering finish in the Kentucky Derby.

The colt was bounced around a bit before finding a clear path in the stretch and some have criticized jockey Jeremy Rose — most notably New York trainer John Parisella — for switching to a right-handed whip in the final yards, causing his mount to veer in toward the rail and probably costing him a second-place finish.

But here is where the Point Given comparison falls apart.

Point Given raced close to the fastest 6-furlong splits in Kentucky Derby history while racing wide around the first turn, a tactic that trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Gary Stevens both later attributed to overconfidence in a colt that they were almost sure would break the long Triple Crown drought.

Afleet Alex, on the other hand, was in a perfect position to benefit from the suicidal fractions laid down by Spanish Chestnut, racing at the back of pack in the early going and then charging to the front in midstretch. But instead of drawing away, he got rubber-legged in the final strides and was beaten by two horses — Giacomo and Closing Argument — that, as the Preakness showed, he should have beaten.

Advantage could evaporate
That inability to put away those rivals suggests that his speed figure advantage — the 112 Beyer he earned in winning the Preakness is 6 points higher than the best number of any other Belmont contestant — could evaporate in the final yards of Saturday’s race as a horse that he could easily handle at a shorter distance comes powering down the stretch.

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The question is which of his rivals is ready to turn in the race of his life?

I see three horses — Andromeda’s Hero (15-1 in the morning line); Reverberate (6-1) and Southern Africa (12-1) — as most likely to upset the Afleet Alex applecart.

Andromeda’s Hero looks like a horse loaded with stamina (check out the gallop out after the Kentucky Derby, when he looked like he wanted to go around again); Southern Africa has good tactical speed and is on the improve; and Reverberate is a threat on the front end who earned the second-highest Beyer Speed Figure of any horse in the field.

I’ll use all three in $5 exacta boxes with the favorite, and box the trio for the same price in case two of them can run past him in the stretch. Total wager: $60.

I’m taking a chance in discounting Giacomo, figuring that he’s unlikely to move forward off of modest speed figures earned in winning the Derby and finishing third in the Preakness. If I’m wrong, I’ll tear up my tickets and move on to the 12^th race at Belmont.

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