Bob Neumeier

While the size of the field for the Belmont Stakes remains unclear, what is certain is that Afleet Alex will be the overwhelming favorite to grab the last leg of the Triple Crown.

His near-calamitous stumble and miraculous recovery in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico had folks around the Monday water coolers buzzing from Maine to Montana. Even a vast number of casual sports fans who saw the collision with Scrappy T could only marvel at the balance and athletic agility of both the colt and his young rider, Jeremy Rose.

Not only did the decisive victory validate the unusual training tactics of Tim Ritchey, the feat of derring-do by Rose has made him an instant celebrity. The national media has placed a full court press on the young man what with TV, radio, the Internet, and print types all looking for a Rose petal. From all indications, he seems to be handling his new-found celebrity with grace and enthusiasm.

But as the show business saying goes, “your only as good as your last show,” and Rose will be squarely put to that test in the Belmont Stakes on Afleet Alex. His problem has less to do with his mount or even his competition.

No, Rose will ultimately tested by the Belmont Park track itself and more importantly, the quirky and unusual distance of the race — a mile and a half on the main track. Even the regular New York jockeys like Jerry Bailey, Edgar Prado, Richard Migliore, and John Velazquez ride about three or races a year at this marathon distance.

For a push-button horse like Afleet Alex, young Rose will be asked to properly time his move — too soon and he’ll be dead between the eighth and sixteenth pole . . . too late and he’ll run out of real estate. No wonder the young pilot has been asked by his trainer to ride as  many mounts as possible at the track to get acclimated before the big June 11 event.

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But riding at six furlongs and even a one-turn mile and an eighth race is one thing — riding the mile and a half Stakes before 70,000 screaming fans something different.

So clearly, Jeremy Rose will be the focal point of the Belmont Stakes. Critics of previous Belmont rides include charges of premature  moves by Kent Desormeaux on Real Quiet’s quest for a Triple Crown when that horse was nailed on the wire. Even Stewart Elliot took his share of heat for similar tactics in last year’s race, when Smarty Jones was bidding for his Triple Crown.

That ride was the source of spirited debate when a number of pundits chided the jockey for not saving enough fuel in the tank for the stretch drive. My view of the 2004 edition was that Elliot could have taken back into that first turn and run up the backside but clearly would have lost valuable position in the race had he taken the conservative approach.

Would Smarty Jones have won the Belmont with a more patient ride?

Who knows?

Jockey Mike Smith will have no such dilemma riding Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo in the Belmont. This horse actually has an ideal stride for this track and this race — that long grinding approach that served him so well in Louisville. While the silly pace clearly played to Giacomo’s Derby success, he will not need that identical set-up at Belmont Park. No, the very distance of the event will help him just as the track and distance played against him at Pimlico.

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Giacomo can turn the tables on Afleet Alex in the Belmont Stakes. Should both colts retain their present form (always questionable given the campaign), the key will be when Rose decides to make his move with Afleet Alex. Again, the timing will be critical. One false move and Alex will be cooked and Giacomo or another fresh face will beat him.

Given the even-money or 4-5 odds expected on the Preakness winner, value shoppers will be looking at other possibilities. Alex deserves to be the solid favorite.

Those who try to beat him in the Belmont Stakes have to hope that the favorite has an off day or that young Rose makes a blunder.

In the quirky Belmont, it has happened too many times to recount which should make this year’s edition a fascinating one and a fitting conclusion to another interesting Triple Crown campaign.

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