California faces
power shortages

In California, statewide power capacity has been rising since the power meltdown of 2001 sparked a building spree of new power plants -– with some 26 new plants online and another 12 expected by next year. But a major transmission bottleneck –- roughly splitting north and south -– means that plentiful power in the north can’t flow to customers in the south who need it, according to Claudia Chandler, Assistant Executive Director of the California Energy Commission.

California hasn't felt the full impact of the Northwest drought, so it's in-state hyropower supplies won't be hit as hard, said Chandler. But the Golden State will still have to look to electricity imports from Nevada, Arizona, and Baja California in Mexico, to help out, according to Jeff Wright, a FERC energy analyst.

A very hot summer could leave a shortage of about 1,700 megawatts, or electricity for about 1 million homes, in southern California and a statewide shortage of 800 megawatts, according to an forecast from the Independent System Operator, which runs the power grid.

Utilities typically like to keep a surplus generating capacity of at least 7 percent above the peak load on the hottest day of the year. If temperatures are unusually hot this summer, said

Chandler, that surplus capacity in Southern California could drop to 2 percent or less.

“We look for interruptible power if we hit those temperatures because we just can’t get power from the north to the south beyond what we have already,” she said.

And the outlook for summer 2006 is more demand, zero net gain in new generation, and few transmission upgrades to get more imports. Most relief will not come until 2007-2008, the ISO forecast said.

Transmission bottlenecks are shaping up in various parts of the country -– the result of a combination of economic and regulatory hurdles. While power generating companies compete to sell power based on market prices set by supply and demand, most transmission lines are still regulated monopolies with a set rate of return, providing owners little financial incentive to invest in expanding capacity. And if the capacity of those lines doesn’t keep up with demand, pockets of the country can become overloaded.

Connecticut constraints
That’s what’s happened in southwestern Connecticut, where an expanding economy and strong job market has brought steadily rising power demands. Older transmission lines into that part of the state can’t handle the higher voltages of increased demand. But soaring real estate prices in highly developed towns and cities in the region have made it difficult to put in new power lines, according to Joseph McGee, Vice President for Public Policy for the Business Council of Fairfield County.

"The primary issue is these new lines have to be on towers that are 130 feet high,” he said. “So you’re putting these lines through very expensive and very intensely developed property, and there was a lot of opposition.”

The solution, which will allow construction of new lines to begin, was to bury much of the new transmission capacity underground, said McGee.

That still leaves Connecticut vulnerable to blackouts this summer. Grid operators have some 218 megawatts of portable generators standing by for emergencies. And, as in many areas where power grids are stretched, they’ve also set in place programs to cut demand. One offers homeowners the option of installing a switch on their central air conditioning units that can be shut off by the local utility. If hot weather creates a surge in demand, customers may lose the use of their air conditioner, but they’ll avoid a total loss of power.

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