Summer travel preview 2005

Procrastinators beware: the summer travel booking season kicks in six months before the fact, and often enough he who hesitates gets the middle seat. So now that the snow and ice has been melted a good couple weeks, the first flowers are blooming, and the ski season is almost over, it must be time to think about travel in July.

A constellation of factors will conspire to make this one of the trickiest summers to get good deals and avoid crowds in some time:

* pent-up demand
* high fuel costs
* weak dollar

Pent-Up Demand: They're Going Anyway
I could make a case that a weak dollar, astronomical fuel prices worldwide, and political uncertainty during wartime might keep US travelers at home again this year.

And I would almost certainly be wrong - after three post-9/11 summers of very tentatively returning to the airways, American travelers appear poised to hit the road this summer in record numbers that could even shatter the boom-time records set in summer 2000. In fact, pent-up demand over the past few years may make July the biggest month of travel to Europe in history.

Already in April airlines are reporting passenger loads rivaling 2000, and this trend will continue. Airfares to Europe during the summer are already high; as I'll explain below, your best bet for now might be to sit tight, let the airlines reconsider some of their pricing, and be ready to pounce if a good fare shows up.

Weak Dollar: The Reverse Commute
Typically, it is Americans invading international tourist destinations that characterizes the summer travel crush. This year, with foreign currencies including the euro and yen doing extremely well against the dollar, it may be foreign tourists at North American destinations that will push up demand, prices, and crowds.

The competition may be particularly fierce for hotel rooms. Already hotels in premium, high-profile locations like Hawaii, New York City, Las Vegas, and the major theme parks are reporting abundant hotel bookings by foreign travelers, with overall occupancy rates pushing up toward 90%, according to a study by Smith Travel Research.

Airfares
Due to intense competition led by the discount airlines, domestic airfares should remain relatively affordable all summer. All bets are off on peak weekends, such as July 4 and Labor Day, and certainly airlines will push up fares whenever planes start to fill.

July 4th - Hoo Boy
Expect the July 4th weekend to be one of the biggest and most crowded summer travel weekends in at least a half-decade. The 4th falls on a Monday, so vacation travel will be extremely concentrated as travelers make the most of the three-day weekend. Expect crowds and lines at airport check-in, parking, hotels, theme parks and attractions, and in your aircraft row; it is going to be a wild one.