A food fight in the Big GOP Tent

Howard Fineman • E-mail

WASHINGTON - I’m wondering if we haven’t just witnessed a turning point in politics. Years from now, when we look back on the “Gang of 14” deal, will we see it as the moment when the tide of conservative Republicanism crested?

American public life moves in cycles. A generation ago, Lyndon Johnson trounced Barry Goldwater. But Goldwater’s 1964 crusade unleashed energy and ideas that inspired the New Right-Republican movement, which eventually reached its zenith in George W. Bush. He unified the libertarian, religious and corporate cadres of conservatism under his GOP banner.

Is the wheel turning again with another bold Texan in power? Hard to know, of course, and the Democrats won’t rise in some mere hydraulic fashion. They need to find vision, ideas and charismatic leaders, and none of them seem to be in great supply. But the line of products – call them “Bush Right” – suddenly is looking like what marketers call a “mature brand.” There are signs of age, strain and overreach, internally and externally.

A generation ago, voters turned against the Democrats for the excesses of their welfare-state, big-government thinking. Washington WASN’T the answer to everything.

But, voters may conclude, the Bible isn't either. They could turn against the GOP if they think the party is sacrificing the American tradition of pragmatism and respect for scientific progress – on, say, stem-cell research – in favor of religious fundamentalism, however sincere. Take a look at some of the key supporters of stem-cell research: Nancy Reagan, to name one – not to mention corporate executives who don’t want to see research money and energy drift away to other countries. Two religions are in collision, one of them secular and scientific, the other Biblical.

All that glitters is not gold
The external pressures on the GOP were mounting before the “Gang of 14” deal set off a food fight in the Big Tent.

To the extent the American economy is doing well, the president isn’t getting credit. Gasoline prices are one reason; the listless stock market (in which 60 million Americans are directly invested) is another. Bush pushed his entire pile of second-term chips to the middle of the Texas Hold ‘Em table when he bet on Social Security reform. He’s down to his undershirt on that one.

Then there's the health-care system, which is an incomprehensible and expensive mess. Voters may agree with the president that trial lawyers are one reason why, but Americans have a sense that the trouble is deeper than that, and the greed more endemic. Federal spending has run wild under GOP control of Congress – and voters (many of them Republicans) may be about to conclude that Republican leaders are using the war on terror as a cover story for profligacy.

Looking abroad, voters haven’t quite lost patience with the war in Iraq. But they have lost hope that it will lead to a sunny upland of peace and security, and their skepticism could turn into a “bring-them-home” crusade. 

Voters remain supportive of the president’s overall handing of the war on terror, but the rest of the Bush poll numbers must make for dismal reading at the White House: down on the economy, down on Social Security, down on the handling of the war in Iraq. He’s still in fat city compared with Republican-run Congress, which is posting the same kind of ratings the Democrats did when Newt Gingrich let his uprising back in 1994.

But it is the internal fissures that signal an aging and vulnerable political cycle.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

NYT: Health bill revives abortion groups Stars are out at White House state dinner Obama vows to ‘finish the job’ in Afghanistan Is Obama's star dimming as U.S. stock drops? Obama hails 'defining partnership' with India Analyst: India needs reassurance it's a priority Conservative concedes again in N.Y. 23 Obama administration won't sign landmine ban Newsweek: How Hillary can reset Obama's foreign policy No jail time for figure in Abramoff scandal Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: