Israel sensing shifts in U.S. relationship

‘A longer view’
These subtle new pressures on Israel, U.S. officials say, reflect a desire in the Bush second term to begin to address some of the underlying causes of the hatred directed at the United States in the Islamic world, as well as some practical realities that grow out of the wars in Iraq and against al Qaida and the surging price of energy.

“You can deter rogue nations and stand and fight when that is necessary in some other cases, but you also need to take a longer view about such a conflict,” says a Bush administration foreign policy advisor on Middle East policy, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“The longer view includes making it clear that the United States wants the Palestinian people to have a state, a democratic state, and that the United States wants the Islamic world to enjoy the fruits of democracy. We think that’s the long-term way to guarantee peace because democracies just don’t tend to attack other democracies.” 

In Israel, some believe this shift will become more pronounced if the current cease-fire between the Israelis and Palestinians, and the slow moves back toward negotiations as a means of settling the conflict collapse in a new round of violence. Ehud Barak, Israel’s former prime minister, says a new round of violence will exasperate a Bush administration and severely strain ties with Israel now that Washington has more pressing priorities in the Middle East since 9/11.

“Only then, with Europe against us and America not with us and internal unity crumbling, will Sharon get it,” Barak said in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz last Thursday. “Suddenly he will see the light. He will see what anyone with eyes in his head can see now. But then, after hundreds have been killed and billions of shekels lost and after an internal rift, we will no longer succeed in preserving all the large settlement blocs inside Israel. At the end of the great shortcut, we'll find ourselves withdrawing to a line that is worse than the line to which we could withdraw now. We will find ourselves on a line that is very close to the Green Line" -- a reference to the Israeli frontiers that existed before its seized the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Golan Heights in 1967.

More even-handed?
The willingness to differ in public has been on display recently. During their April meeting, Bush noted his differences with Sharon, specifically on the prime minister's plan to expand West Bank settlements. Referring to the plan, concocted in part to mollify the right wing of his party angry about the Gaza withdrawal,  Bush said: "I told the prime minister not to undertake any activity that contravenes" the road map that the U.S., Europe, Israel, the Palestinians and many Arab governments have endorsed. "Israel has obligations under the road map. The road map clearly says no expansion of settlements.”

Alternatively, Bush's April 25 meeting with the Crown Prince in Crawford featured important concessions to the Saudis -- including easing of travel restrictions dating to 9/11 and praise for modest recent reforms allowing Saudi legislative elections, plus a noticable lack of criticism on issues of human rights.

National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, in post-meeting discussions with reporters, would not comment on whether the president had raised human rights issues, including the imprisonment of Saudi dissidents who called for a constitutional monarchy.

"They are in a position of power here now," says Dorfman, the Israeli diplomat. "They realize as long as oil prices are skyrocketing, they have a very strong hand to play."

The emphasis on even-handedness is apparent even before audiences of Israel’s supporters. On Monday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking to the most powerful Israeli lobbying group in Washington, AIPAC, got a round of applause for noting that Abbas will find the president insistent that he continue to root out terrorism in the Palestinian Territories and cooperate with Israel to prevent attacks.

"The president will be clear that there are commitments to be met, that there goals to be met," she said.

Arab diplomats say Abbas will be looking for assurances from Bush that he will use U.S. resources to mitigate Israeli complaints about continued arms smuggling or perceived laxity on terrorism, which the Palestinian leader says he is moving against as quickly as is politically possible. Abbas will also seek American aid, diplomats say, in securing Israeli withdrawals from other West Bank cities that the Israeli military reoccupied when renewed violence destroyed the Oslo peace process in 2001.

Still, a senior Bush administration official cautioned that it would be wrong to interpret the willingness of the president to lend such support as a major shift in policy. “Everyone here, I’m sure, would claim we’ve been even handed all along,” says the official.

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