Israel sensing shifts in U.S. relationship

For the first time since the Clinton administration, the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority are in Washington during the same week advancing their particular perspectives on how and when a solution to the bloody and burdensome Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be possible.

President Bush will welcome Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas to the White House  Thursday, ending a long freeze on such ties that ended only with the death of Yasser Arafat in November. But there will be no White House meeting for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

“There was a sense that this just wasn’t the optimal time for the two men to meet,” explains a State Department official. “They met in Crawford [Texas] just last month and so there wasn’t a pressing need for another meeting. You shouldn’t read into it.”

In fact, both Israeli and Arab diplomats are doing just that, pointing to a separate meeting last month between Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah in Crawford, where the Saudis reportedly requested that the White House “clear the decks,” in the words of one of the Israeli source, for Abbas’ visit.

“This is a serious, important moment for Abbas and for the Palestinians,” the Israeli diplomat said. “Abbas is weak, challenged by Hamas in the upcoming legislative elections, and even being challenged inside [his own party] Fatah. Both Israel and you guys want this guy to succeed, we worry we’ll be dealing with a Hamas government if he doesn’t. So if getting Sharon out of Dodge helps that along, so be it.”

A senior administration official involved in Middle East policy, speaking on condition of anonymity, was unaware of any Saudi intervention on the timing of Sharon's visit.

New pressures
In Washington Tuesday, Sharon told AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israeli lobbying group, "I appreciate Chairman Abbas' decision to condemn violence and terrorism. With this approach, it can be a partner in implementing the [internationally-brokered] road map and to move the process forward. But his statement must be translated into real actions on the ground."

Sharon also said Israel would release another 400 Palestinians held in its prisons as a good faith gesture upon his return.

That is precisely the kind of action the Bush administration favors, says Dan Dorfman, an Israeli diplomat based in New York. He and other Israelis say they have noticed a gradual shift in the Bush administration’s policies back toward a more even-handed approach that was predominant in the Clinton years.

“I don’t know how deep it goes, but there has been a shift, in large part because in the Iraqi theater, the U.S. needs for us to play ball, to lay low, in order for U.S. policy to work,” says Dorfman. He says it is natural at this point that the United States is demanding progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track as it seeks to dispel the notion in the Arab world that American policy is hopelessly slanted toward Israel.

“Left to our own, we might not be so eager to take steps like handing back control of certain West Bank cities to Abbas’ security forces, or to open, as we have, negotiations with Egypt on the Sinai,” says Dorfman. Israel has had talks with Cairo about allowing the Egyptian military to patrol parts of the Sinai, which was demilitarized by the 1979 Camp David accords. That might address some of Israel's concerns about arms smuggling into Gaza.

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