Final showdown

At the end of the "American Idol" broadcast Tuesday night, when both Bo Bice and Carrie Underwood had finished their trio of songs, Simon Cowell made his prediction: "Carrie, I think you’ve done well enough to win the competition."

That statement may have a big impact. The timing of the pronouncement at the end of the show, shortly before the phone lines opened is key — it’s the show’s final message to viewers. And the belief that this was a close race that could come down to a few votes, means that Fox wants viewers to think that every vote counts — although given the fact that the network doesn’t release the vote totals, take that bit with a grain of salt.

Plus there was the fact that neither of the other judges said anything original about either candidate all night. They were so undistinguishable that both Randy Jackson and Paula Abdul may as well have taped their comments to Bo and replayed them after Carrie’s performance. Perhaps Simon felt it was up to him to try and foist his will upon the American voters.

What Simon did not say, and what he could not have accurately said, is that Carrie outperformed Bo in Tuesday night’s finale.

Bice has more talent
Bo Bice has been the better singer throughout much of the competition, and certainly in recent weeks. If the point is to pick someone to go out on tour right now and get the audience rocking, he’s the clear choice.

But "American Idol" isn’t designed to pick the better musician; it’s a popularity contest. In addition to having the better voice and a charming manner, Underwood seems to have a whole lot of popularity to draw upon.

She’s never been in danger of being voted off, and there’s never been any indication that her support slackens when she struggles.

Bice probably needed to score a knockout blow to feel secure in his chances in the voting. That didn’t happen.

It probably wasn’t even a possibility, given the songs each of the contestants were given to sing. It was mostly a night of cheesy ballads, and lulled the public to sleep as much as it inspired people to vote.

Original songs were original duds

Slide show   American Idol See pictures from this season.

Neither of the two was able to do much to knock the other out of the competition. Both were pretty average on "Inside Your Heaven," a boring original that will sadly be the winner’s first single. It’s a cookie-cutter ballad sort of like Kelly Clarkson’s "A Moment Like This," only seven times as banal and not nearly as memorable.

Bo’s version was a little better. However, his second song was the best of the night, because it showcased his advantages while Carrie’s second song pointed out her big weakness – the lack of any kind of stage presence.

The most noticeable advantage Bice has is that he’s much more comfortable on stage than Carrie. For that second song – deemed to be his favorite from the competition thus far — Bice sang the Ides of March’s "Vehicle" and marched about the stage like he’d get bonus votes for hitting every nook and cranny.

Meanwhile, Carrie sang Martina McBride’s "Independence Day" and pretty much stood there like a statue, as she did for her two other songs (both ballads). Her voice was nice, as it always is, but she was singing a song while Bo was putting on a show.

That coin toss matters
Carrie, however, might have had the two biggest advantages. First is that rock-solid fan support, but more importantly, she won the coin toss before the show.

The first coin toss was aborted when Ryan Seacrest somehow dropped the coin down a grate. On a season that’s made the news for snafus as much as singing, it was somehow fitting that the show’s host would fumble the coin. It’s probably a miracle that everyone has simply managed to find their way to the set each week.

By winning the toss, Underwood got to sing last. For most of the night, it seemed like a disadvantage, as her nerves seemed even greater coming after the more experienced Bice. Particularly on the second song, Bo set the bar too high for Carrie to match.

MORE FROM AMERICAN IDOL

Happy birthday, Simon, the best mean Brit ever

Happy birthday, Simon, the best mean Brit ever ‘Idol Gives Back’ returns to ‘American Idol’ Ellen brings EveryFan sensibility to ‘Idol’ Paula Abdul wishes Ellen luck on ‘Idol’   Add American Idol headlines to your news reader: