‘Survivor’ finale
tough to handicap

And then there were four on “Survivor Palau.”

Already? How did that happen?

Even though we’ve been watching the final four — Tom, Katie, Ian, and Jenn — since February, in many ways, we just met them.

Each week, their alliances have shifted so dramatically that the game has followed no clear path. Although NYC firefighter Tom has dominated in both challenges and game play, he’s far from guaranteed a win on Sunday’s finale.

For the first eight episodes, we watched one tribe decimate the other. Four Ulong members went home before Koror visited tribal council, and then it was just to dispose of Willard, who checked out and turned in his key weeks earlier. After that, three more Ulong members took the walk of shame as the lamest tribe in the history of “Survivor” continued to fall on its face.

This unprecedented slaughter had consequences for viewers. Every time Ulong lost, the episode focused primarily on its members’ politicking. By episode eight, viewers were quite familiar with the Ulong tribe’s inner workings, but by then just Stephenie remained. As a result, we’ve only had the past five episodes to introduce us to the politics inside Koror. That hasn’t been enough time to get a sense of what’s going to happen.

Typically, when tribes merge, we’re only about halfway through the season. This time, when the tribes merged — Stephenie rowed her boat over to Koror — the season was two-thirds over. Thus the past few weeks have been a whirlwind; suddenly, just four people remain, and the season finale is just days away.

Alliances shifting with the wind
During some “Survivor” seasons, the editors have kept key strategizing out of the episodes, which makes for more dramatic — if less informed — tribal council viewing. While it’s frustrating to watch concealed strategies play out without any hint of what’s to come, it’s tough to keep track of the endless strategizing and socializing without a flow chart.

‘SURVIVOR’ ODDS Tom Odds: 1:2 Bottom line: Has dominated physically and emotionally. If he wins immunity, the game is his to lose. Ian Odds: 1:3 Bottom line: Latched himself to Tom but has strategized quite a bit on his own. If he can navigate his relationship with Katie, and win immunity like he did in the past, things may go his way. Katie Odds: 1:3 Bottom line: If she’s playing Ian like she appears to be, and she ends up in the final two with him, she could take it all. Jenn Odds: 1:6 Bottom line: She doesn’t seem to be very involved except to follow the leader, but that might be enough to carry her through to a point where she can make her move.    —A.D.

These past few episodes, transparency has been the name of the game for the editors, who’ve shown us a lot of the tribe’s inner machinations. And alliances have moved around like pairs of shoes banging around inside a dryer. Last week, Tom, Ian, and Caryn banded together to boot off Gregg, a former ally of Tom and Ian, betraying a friend to advance in the game. That must have been a difficult move, but it was smart play: Gregg was strong and a tough competitor.

This week, Katie’s friendship with Ian seemed to be at the center of yet another shift. When Ian won the reward challenge — a red convertible Corvette and a night away from camp at a hote l— he decided to take Tom with him. This was baffling, since Ian and Katie had previously promised to share any rewards. And Tom and Ian had earlier agreed to not take one another, thereby preventing the women from being alone.

The only explanation for Ian’s behavior — other than that the dolphin trainer flipped out after spending so much time with humans on land — was that Ian wanted the women to get together, form an alliance, and vote out Tom. He’d indirectly be disposing of his toughest competition before the game reached its final three days.

Thus the women gathered together and appeared to be ready to send one of the men on their way to the jury. But with yet another power play afoot, everyone started fighting for their lives. And then, at tribal council, Caryn hurled a metaphoric tank of propane into the fire, and the resulting explosion threatened to change the game.

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