North Korea nuke test
would be ‘disastrous’

WASHINGTON - The U.N. atomic watchdog on Friday warned that a North Korean nuclear test would have "disastrous political repercussions" and called on world leaders to pressure Pyongyang not to cross that line. The warning comes amid reports that U.S. spy satellites had detected what may be preparations for the regime's first test of a nuclear weapon, although some analysts believe it could be a calculated ruse on Pyongyang’s part.

Asked what the effect of a North Korean nuclear test would be, Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters: “There will be disastrous political repercussions in Asia and the rest of the world. I think there could be major environmental fallout, which could lead into dissemination of radioactivity in the region.”

“I hope every leader who has contact with North Korea is on the phone today with North Korean authorities to dissuade from test,” he said.

The satellite images show North Korea has dug and refilled a significant hole at a suspected test site in Gilju in the northeastern part of the country, said the official, discussing intelligence only on the condition of anonymity. The hole was dug in a manner consistent with preparations for an underground nuclear test, although it is not known whether the North Koreans deposited a weapon inside, the official said.

In addition, the official said, they have built some bleachers a sufficient distance from the hole, presumably for viewing any test.

Officials elsewhere in the U.S. government played down the remarks.

FREE VIDEO Stern warning to North Korea May 6: The U.N.'s atomic watchdog agency issued a stern warning to North Korea not to perform nuclear testing, reports NBC's Andrea Mitchell. Nightly News

One who spoke on condition of anonymity said activity at the site could be consistent with preparations for a nuclear test, but other explanations are also possible.

The official said the U.S. government’s working assumption is that North Korea could test with little notice and is believed to have the technical capability to do so. Its decision is considered to be one of politics.

At the State Department, spokesman Tom Casey said, “We don’t have any new assessment” of North Korea. Casey said various North Korean statements had raised concerns and the United States was sharing them with other governments.

Although North Korea has claimed it has nuclear weapons, an actual test would be a first and confirm their capabilities to the world.

But the North Koreans also have a good idea when U.S. spy satellites are overhead — the U.S. does not possess enough to watch the country constantly — and are capable of making such preparations solely to cause a reaction among its adversaries, the defense official said.

The big question: What if?
But some analysts believe Pyongyang may well gamble on conducting a real test.

ENCARTA NORTH KOREA: Maps, facts and figures

North Korean leader "Kim Jong Il in his mind benefits from a test because he thinks he'll get the recognition of being a nuclear power from the U.S.,” former CIA analyst Arthur Brown told NBC News.

This week, the United States warned North Korea that it has military options.

"The United States maintains significant — and I want to underline significant — deterrent capability of all kinds in the Asia-Pacific region," said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Since September, the Pentagon has had B2 stealth bombers and F15e fighter jets on alert in Guam and Diego Garcia and a contingency plan to take out North Korea's nuclear sites.

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