Dark horse Republican
to the rescue?

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The only real Southerner
Whether Barbour would be the “only real Southerner” is of course a matter of debate – but the fact that it’s a debate is what’s relevant. By my admittedly rough count there could be at least FIVE Southerners in the ’08 contest, plus several others who, while not Southern, can speak the local GOP language of “traditional” values: hetero-only marriage, gun rights, prayer in the schools and occasional, lovingly administered corporal punishment in the home. That’s the liberal media caricature. The more profound idea is this: that faith in God, family and the Bible should inform and guide American public life.

The Southerners could include: Frist of Tennessee, Barbour of Mississippi, Bush of Florida, Sen. George Allen of Virginia and – hold onto your NASCAR gimme cap – former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. The non-Southern conservatives who think they can play there – and elsewhere on the values circuit – include Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and maybe even Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Then there is the other side of the ledger: less obviously churchy figures such as Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Gov. George Pataki and New York and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

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A central political drama of this spring – and, in a way, the opening scenes of the GOP race – revolves around the question of what to do about the filibuster. If you’ve read this far you know what I’m talking about. What no one knows for sure is which way Frist and several of the other combatants will jump.

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Curry: Make or break week for Frist and DeLay

All the certified Southerners and Northern purebreds want to junk the filibuster because, they claim, doing so will allow them to confirm (by a simple majority vote) judges who will rein in the “out of control” federal judiciary. More important, this legislative orthodoxy is what religious conservative – men such as Dr. James Dobson – believe, and that is what they are telling their millions upon millions of loyal listeners, viewers, subscribers and parishioners.

Frist is looking for a compromise, but there isn’t one – and Democratic Leader Harry Reid doesn’t really want one, because he thinks he can win the vote. If Frist wants to be taken seriously by the religious right he has to take the plunge and call for a vote.

It looks like McCain is going to jump the other way and, if he does Hagel, a fellow war hero and longtime buddy, could do the same. If both men vote against the Republican Party line, the filibuster rule might survive.

The wingers will vilify McCain; the Mainstream Media will lionize him, although how they (we) could make him anymore leonine is a very good question.

But here’s the kicker: Rove and most Republicans will privately cheer if the rule survives. It means they will have a Cause to campaign on in 2006 – and to raise money on in the meantime.

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