U.S. agency poised for big border security operation

Deterrence, risk questioned
Despite the success of last year’s effort, the flow of illegal migration seems to have had little effect on the numbers of those attempting illegal migration.

“These guys really want to get in,” said Clemens.  “They have an economic incentive to get in, you see some trying over and over and over again,” she said.  “Why hasn’t it been a deterrent?  I think it has,” Clemens said, “you also have to look at our numbers in San Diego and some in Texas, they are way down,” leaving Arizona has the main problem area, she said.

But those who study the issue maintain that such efforts have little or no real deterrent effect.  “The ‘ABC Initiative’ is tantamount to tossing another boulder in the stream,” said Cornelius. In January he interviewed more than 600 Mexican immigrants who recently returned to their home communities.  Overwhelmingly Cornelius said he found that tougher border enforcement “has had no deterrent effect on the likelihood that someone would cross the border illegally.” 

Knowledge of increased border enforcement and even first hand knowledge of someone that has died attempting entry into the U.S. doesn’t have a deterrent effect, he said.  “Migrants and people-smugglers are avoiding, end-running, the most heavily fortified areas,” he said.  “They know perfectly well where these are. Their probability of being apprehended is still low enough to justify the physical risks.”

The vulnerability factor
A federal law enforcement agent familiar with "Operation Full Court Press" voiced concern that critical areas of the country, already deemed to be “high interest targets” for terrorists, were being left vulnerable because so many resources were being shifted to Operation Full Court Press.

“Anyone determined to enter this country in a clandestine fashion will know shortly or already knows about this operation,” the federal agent told MSNBC.com on the condition of anonymity. “They will also know that we have finite resources … the vulnerability is huge for it will make it easier to cross the border in other places,” the agent said.

In addition, shifting assets to the Arizona border for an extended time significantly decreases the investigative support those resources provide for other anti-terrorism operations, such as the Joint Terrorism Task Forces, the agent said.  “Foolish placement of all of ones assets in one place will allow the enemy to sneak in behind you and hit you where you are vulnerable,” he said.

CPB’s Clemens acknowledges such potential but maintains that because there is now a single agency responsible for border protection the agency has greatly expanded its flexibility and mobility.  CPB officials will be briefed daily, Clemens said, and if a problem is noted, such as a surge in apprehensions in another border area, resources will be shifted from Arizona to deal with the problem. 

And no area, Clemens insists, is being left vulnerable. 

“A lot of work has gone into figuring out that delicate balance (of shifting resources), taking some air assets, taking some personnel borrowing, if you will… from areas were it’s deemed it will not leave them vulnerable,” Clemens said.  “We have a limited number of resources and have got to do the best job with what we currently have.”

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