No stopping rising sea levels, study says

By Robert Roy Britt

updated 11:12 p.m. ET March 17, 2005

Even if all industrial pollution and auto emissions suddenly ceased today, Earth's climate will warm at least 1 degree by the year 2100 and seas will rise 4 inches (11 centimeters), according to a new study.

The warming is likely to continue through 2400, another study forecasts.

The worst-case scenario projects the global average temperature rising 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit within this century and the sea level climbing a foot or more.

The outlook is based on greenhouse gases that were in the atmosphere in 2000, with no additional input of the chemicals, which serve as a global blanket to trap solar energy.

INTERACTIVE The greenhouse effect How the Earth maintains a temperature conducive to life

"Many people don’t realize we are committed right now to a significant amount of global warming and sea level rise because of the greenhouse gases we have already put into the atmosphere," said Gerald Meehl, who led the study out of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

"Even if we stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate will continue to warm, and there will be proportionately even more sea level rise," Meehl said today. "The longer we wait, the more climate change we are committed to in the future."

Trends and forecasts
Results of the computer modeling are reported in the March 18 issue of the journal Science.

Computer models like these are based on what's known about past climate change. Projecting the future involves many variables that are not completely understood, scientists caution. Critics charge that the models do not necessarily represent actual outcomes.

Few scientists doubt that the planet's climate is indeed growing warmer. A report last month confirmed that last year was among the four warmest on record and projected 2005 will be the warmest.

More controversial is whether and how much humans have contributed.

The model through 2100 has the temperature rising at least 1 degree Fahrenheit, or about a half-degree Celsius. That's similar to the warming scientists say occurred during the 20th Century.

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