U.S. life expectancy may drop due to obesity

Report called 'very one-sided'
James Vaupel, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, and a research scientist at Duke University, co-authored the 2002 forecast, based on data from developed nations including the United States.

Vaupel called the new report “very one-sided” and said he doubts that obesity will negate the effects of other medical progress in improving mortality.

Emory University health policy expert Dr. Kenneth Thorpe said that while obesity is clearly damaging public health and driving up health care spending, rising rates aren’t enough to resolve Social Security’s woes. “That’s too simplistic,” he said.

Other life expectancy forecasts rely on past mortality trends; the Olshansky group used obesity prevalence data and previously published estimates of years of life lost from obesity.

They calculated in reverse, assessing the fall in death rates that would occur if all obese Americans had a normal weight. Their estimate shows that, if not for obesity, life expectancy at birth should be four to nine months higher than the record 77.6 years announced by the government last month. That slight gain translates into a loss that will worsen if current trends continue, the researchers said.

Richard Suzman, a researcher at the National Institute on Aging, which helped fund the study, said the projections are “possible, but I would say unlikely.” He said the best approach is to estimate life expectancy using historical trends.

The Center for Consumer Freedom, an advocacy group for the restaurant and food industry, which argues the obesity problem has been exaggerated, said the paper should be discredited because co-author David Allison has done consulting for makers of weight-loss products.

Allison, a biostatistician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, noted that the journal mentions his financial ties. While the study methods are partly based on assumptions, they are also sound, Allison said.

Obesity researcher Dr. JoAnn Manson said she agrees with the paper’s message, if not the methods.

“The calculations that were made may not be perfect,” but the emphasis on obesity’s dangers “should serve as a wake-up call for policy makers and the public health community,” said Manson, chief of preventive medicine at Harvard’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin said Wednesday that the report supports his efforts to have government regulation of junk food marketing to children.

If the dim life expectancy forecast doesn’t demonstrate a need for action, “I don’t know what will,” the Iowa Democrat said.

MORE FROM MORE HEALTH NEWS

More Health News Section Front

Study: 15,000 will die from CT scans done in 1 year New VA patients younger, more often women Wireless devices may read words in the brain Pregnant woman claims hospital ignored her U.S. needs to address vaccine safety, report says Power line pollutants pose health risks Promising treatment for adults with sickle cell CDC: Pet frogs source of salmonella outbreak 1 in 5 on Medicare rehospitalized in one month Feds probing chemical levels in Zhu Zhu toys More Health News Section Front   Add More Health News headlines to your news reader: