Senators may block Social Security vote

Two of the three Democrats who did not sign the letter -- Conrad and Sen. Russell Feingold (Wis.) -- told The Post this week that they would not support individual accounts under the scenarios that White House officials have generally outlined. Conrad said he will not agree to personal accounts "financed by massive borrowing and steep cuts in benefits."

That leaves Nelson, who faces a potentially tough reelection race next year, as the only Senate Democrat who did not sign the letter and who told The Post this week that he is open to considering Bush's proposals.

Although most Democrats appear resolute in their opposition, the White House is stepping up its outreach to what it considers the half-dozen or so Senate Democrats who might be persuaded to back personal accounts. Treasury Secretary John W. Snow and Allan B. Hubbard, the president's chief economist, are leading the effort. Without the support of some Democrats, White House officials privately concede the Bush plan will fail.

Based on private conversations over the past two weeks, White House officials said they were led to believe Lieberman, Nelson, Landrieu, Pryor and Carper were open to the individual accounts.

‘Main goal is solvency’
Snow has met with most of the targeted Democratic senators, including a recent meeting with a bipartisan group led by Lieberman. But Lieberman told The Post this week that he will not support Bush's plan, saying, "to me, the main goal is solvency" of the Social Security trust fund. Pryor's spokesman said his boss opposes personal accounts as described by the White House. Carper said through a spokesman that he would "oppose any sort of carve-out account," the term used for an investment account that would divert payroll taxes rather than create a new revenue source for retirement benefits. Landrieu answered "no" when The Post asked: "Are there any circumstances in which you would support allowing workers to divert any portion of their payroll taxes into Social Security personal accounts?"

Unlike recent battles over tax cuts, the threat of Bush campaigning for their defeat does not appear to be scaring Democratic senators, White House officials concede. Some aides are surprised at the unified and stubborn opposition of Democrats and, in a tone that sounds much more pessimistic than a few weeks ago, talk of how a defeat of the Bush plan this year could lead to GOP congressional and gubernatorial losses in 2006.

Key Democrats are signaling their opposition to carve-out accounts just as top White House officials are drawing a line in the sand on the issue. Hubbard, in an interview published in yesterday's USA Today, said the Democrats' call for Bush to drop the plan for individual accounts financed by payroll taxes is "absolutely a non-starter."

The list of Senate Republicans who have refused to endorse the Bush accounts includes Olympia J. Snowe (Maine), Susan Collins (Maine) and Lincoln D. Chafee (R.I.).

Researcher Brian Faler contributed to this report.

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