Hybrids try to muscle in on European diesels

GENEVA - Diesel is still sweeping Europe. Hybrids are catching on in North America and Japan. But these trends are only short-term, as the industry prepares for the day the world’s fuel reserves dry up, some auto engineers said at the 75th International Motor Show in Geneva.

Nearly every automaker is here showing off its latest hybrid cars, fuel cell models or electric prototypes, along with the latest diesel options.

“Diesel is popular in Europe, clearly, but it’s a short-term trend,” said Laurent Aebi, a product specialist at Honda Motor Co., which was displaying its new FCX fuel cell car, powered by an electric motor that uses hydrogen as its energy source. “I give it another 10 years maximum. After that it will be the hybrid car. But both the diesel car and hybrid car are a transition as we head to fuel cell cars or pure electric cars.”

Yoshio Ishizaka, an executive vice president at Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-biggest carmaker, went further. “Hybrid is really not an intermediate technology," he said, predicting it would even power sports cars some day. "We think hybrid is the technology we have to see for the future.”

Toyota is exhibiting its successful Prius gas-electric hybrid, while Volkswagen is featuring its new Golf Bifuel, which runs on gasoline or natural gas. GM is displaying its concept Sequel car with hydrogen technology, and Honda’s FCX is being shown off on a giant podium complete with glittering water pool.

Lexus is unveiling its 270-horsepower luxury RX400h, the first performance SUV hybrid — which can go from 0-60 mph in 7.6 seconds. This SUV, with a 3.3-liter gasoline engine combined with hybrid synergy drive, goes on sale in the United States in April.

The long-term energy picture
Currently, gasoline accounts for 98 percent of energy used in transport. The world consumes about 80 million barrels of oil a day, a number that continues to increase. American consumption alone is expected to grow nearly 50 percent over the next 20 years.

Available & upcoming hybrids DaimlerChrysler Diesel-electric Dodge Ram: Pickup gets 15 percent mileage boost. 2008: Dodge Durango SUV with 25 percent mileage improvement. Ford Escape Hybrid: SUV rated at 36 in city driving with two-wheel-drive model, nearly double that of the gas-only Escape. Highway driving rated at 31 mpg. Mercury Mariner SUV: 33 mpg in the city, 29 on the highway. 2007: Mazda Tribute SUV, no mileage data yet. 2008: Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan sedans, no mileage data yet. General Motors GMC Sierra/Chevrolet Silverado: 2WD models get 18 mpg city, 21 mpg highway for an increase of 10-12 percent over gasoline siblings. Saturn Vue: SUV rated at 27 mpg in city and 32 mpg highway — a 20 percent increase over gasoline sibling. 2007: Saturn Aura sedan, no specs available. Chevy Tahoe, GMC Yukon, up to 35 percent mpg boost. Chevrolet Malibu, 15 percent increase. 2008: Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups that get up to 35 percent mpg increase. Honda Insight: two-door rated at 56 mpg on highway and in city but discontinued starting in 2007 model year. Civic Hybrid: four-door rated at 51 mpg on highway and 49 mpg in city. Accord Hybrid: rated at 35 mpg on the highway, 29 mpg in the city. Nissan Fall 2006: Hybrid version of midsize Altima. Toyota Prius: Sedan rated at 60 mph in city, 51 mpg on highway. Lexus RX 400h: SUV rated at 31 mpg in city driving, two thirds more than its gas-only RX 330 sibling. Highlander Hybrid: SUV is rated at 32/27 mpg in city/highway driving based on two-wheel-drive model. Lexus GS 450h: Sports sedan rated at 25 mpg in city and 28 mpg highway, along with 339 horsepower. Camry Hybrid: Sedan rated at 40 mpg in city, 38 on highway.

Estimates vary on when production will begin to decline. Some believe it is imminent, saying discoveries of oil have slowed and little is left to be found. Others believe oil will remain abundant for at least several decades and new extraction technologies will ensure plentiful supplies for a long time.

“War in Iraq, no war in Iraq. We are still looking at long-term solutions,” said Yves Dubreil, vice president-deputy director of vehicle engineering at Renault.

“We the manufacturers need to be ready and find a solution for any political, economical or ecological crisis,” Dubreil added. “The world’s reserves are running out, there is no getting around that. Maybe in 100 years but probably a lot less.”

Hybrid cars draw power from at least two energy sources, typically a gas or diesel engine combined with an electric motor. Surplus engine power and energy produced by braking are used to continually recharge the vehicle’s battery.

Automakers are trying to convince consumers that hybrids can be just as powerful as traditional vehicles, but Dubreil says unless they save consumers money, they are unlikely to catch on.

Honda says that because of the relatively new technology, its hybrid Civic, for example, costs about $2,000 to $3,000 more than a comparable non-hybrid Civic.

“The performance today of hybrids is not better than diesel in terms of economy, speed and power,” Dubreil said. “And our problem is that we cannot change the behavior of people on our own. We can only offer them hybrid cars. But the hybrid is just getting started. Does it have a future? For that we need a crystal ball.”

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