Poll workers' courage could be key to election

Is there a sense of confusion over secret polling stations?
Initially yes, although that’s starting to lessen. They have been kept quiet, but word is getting out and an official announcement will shortly be made.

I actually got a chance to see a map of Baghdad and where all the polling stations are located. One of the other problems is that cars — all vehicles — are going to be banned from the streets of Baghdad on Election Day. That raises the question: Well, how then do you get there? They tried to strategically locate the polling stations so that there is basically one in every neighborhood and people can just walk. So that they can absolutely limit all vehicular traffic, because car bombings have been so prevalent recently.

But, there is some confusion; for the most part the polling stations are being set up at schools.

The communities, though, are pretty tight and there is a lot of communication within the neighborhoods about what’s happening. An official announcement will be made shortly, but they really didn’t have a choice — because polling stations have become such a target over the last few weeks — other than to keep things quiet until the last possible moment.

You’ve been out on patrol with U.S. troops. What is their feeling about the election?
In talking to the troops they voice a lot of frustration. One thing I noticed going out with them is that it’s not as though the entire country is in flames. There are areas of Baghdad, and certainly parts of the country in the north and the south, where there is some stability. Places where people are out walking the streets and there is a level of comfort there that you don’t see in the news reports because of the violence.

Slide show   Countdown Iraqis in Iraq and abroad prepare hopefully and warily for Sunday’s elections.

There are troops, for example, in Sadr City who are working on reconstruction projects that are beginning to show some signs of progress in those very poor neighborhoods. But, they don’t get a lot of attention for their efforts because there is so much focus on the violence, with good reason.

So, they are in a tough spot. They are doing the best they can in a very difficult circumstance. 

Are Iraqis aware that overseas expatriate voting has begun?
Yes, from news reports, they are aware of the ex-pat voting. But, Iraqi officials are disappointed in the number who registered overseas. It’s approximately 280,000, or slightly more than that, and they had hoped that number would be far greater.

That’s one of the things you really have to look at. Not just the ex-pat voting, but obviously the voter turnout in general. It’s going to be such a measure of success for this election. That’s the thing we have to watch for on Sunday.

If there are 14 million people who are registered to vote, basically, what the Iraqi government will tell you is that if half of those people turn out to vote; that will be great. Fifty percent would be something they’d be really pleased with, that's 7 million people. But, it may be far less than that. They have no sense, it’s so unpredictable.

The other thing to look out for is the level of Sunni participation. The sense here is that given the level of intimidation — if 25 percent of the Sunnis actually turned out to vote — that would be a success. If it’s five percent, that’s not a good sign. It obviously hinges on the level of violence and what we see tomorrow and Sunday.

So, in summary, what are the most important things to watch for on Sunday?
The election workers showing up and being a lynchpin for what happens. And the level of participation and the level of violence are essentially the other factors that will determine whether or not the election is a success.

Where do we go from here?
What’s crucial is, obviously, longer-term security. Most of the U.S. officials here will tell you that is entirely dependent on the training of Iraqi troops.

Starting in April they are going to be putting 20-man advisory teams with each Iraqi battalion — these will be regular Army and Marines. So far, they’ve been doing that on an ad hoc basis, but this is essential to getting them up to speed.

So again, as the military would say, until they are able to hand over the bulk of this effort to the Iraqi troops it will remain problematic.

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