Poll workers' courage could be key to election

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Security, turnout and the presence of workers to run the polling stations are the key variables to watch as Iraqis prepare to vote in Sunday's historic election, according to NBC's Campbell Brown.

What is the extent of security preparations ahead of the election?
U.S. military forces are on patrol and are focusing, at least in Baghdad, on the areas around the polling stations. They are doing door-to-door sweeps where they, based on intelligence, go into someone’s home and check for weapons, and, in general, scope it out to try to get a sense of the area.

When we have gone out on patrol with [the U.S. forces] they were also looking for locations around polling places where, for example, a sniper might be able to hide out and target people going in and out. They are keeping a very visible presence, particularly in those areas. The polling places are also heavily guarded by Iraqi police.

Beyond that, coalition forces have been running operations over the last few weeks throughout the country. They have been acting on intelligence to specifically try to keep insurgents on edge to disrupt whatever they may be planning.

Part of it is just a presence, to be as visible with that kind of show of force as possible. To try to lend some sense of security to the Iraqis and to give them the confidence, frankly, for them to be willing to take the chance to actually go to the polls.

What are the types of potential threats that voters fear?
In the more dangerous areas — the areas that we hear about — it’s the obvious. Here in Baghdad, as well as in Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit, there are constant bombings. Polling place in particular have been a target, but also election workers. Election workers have been killed, have been kidnapped, their families threatened. Anyone directly associated with the election is obviously a target.

But one of the things that is of a major concern is some of the areas where there has been more stability, particularly in the south, and in the north, in the Kurdish areas.

FREE VIDEO Jan. 27:  NBC's Campbell Brown reports on U.S. efforts to secure polling sits around Baghdad. Today show

It's there that both the Iraqis and the military may take areas for granted and assume that there is a comfort level and that people will go out and vote.

But in fact, according to military officials, they believe that’s what insurgent leaders like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi want, which is to trigger a civil war between the Shiite and Sunnis. They believe that Zarqawi may think he could make huge headway toward that goal by creating a spectacular event in one of those areas where it is not expected. That is one of the things that is really keeping the military on edge; that for all of the attention that Baghdad and Mosul and places like that are getting right now, that the more stable Shiite areas could end up being the target for something fairly dramatic.

How do regular Iraqis feel about the intense security?
The people that actually do go to the polls will be showing extraordinary courage. Almost everybody you talk to says that they are afraid. It’s obvious that there is nothing comfortable about this for any of them.

One of the lynchpins that we need to focus on here is the election workers themselves. There is no “Plan B” if those people don’t show up. They have to actually go to the polling places and be there throughout the day to run them and operate them. They are taking enormous risks.

While they are being trained right now, there is great concern that when push comes to shove — because their families are being targeted, because they are being targeted so intensely — that they will fail to show. If you have a polling place where the workers don’t show up and you do have people who turn out there, you could have a very dangerous situation on your hands. And then there’s no option other than to shut it down. And then what do you do with all those people who turned out?

From the people I’ve spoken to, the election workers are really going to be the ones who pull this off — by demonstrating their bravery by showing up and turning out that day.

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