Best actress: Why doesn't Hollywood care?

I’m surprised there’s not a bigger outcry over this. Is “Ray” better than “Maria Full of Grace”? Is “Finding Neverland” better than “Vera Drake”? Best picture nominees sprawl expensively; these best actress pictures, in contrast, tend to be tight, emotionally-draining films about trapped, flawed women. Some of these women manage to escape but none manage to win. Even those who win.

Let’s talk about this “flawed” aspect for a minute. It didn’t hit me until now but the only character who isn’t particularly flawed here is Swank’s Maggie Fitzgerald. Her family is certainly flawed (absurdly so), but she? She’s just determined, spunky, loyal, tough and unbelievably brave. The characters in the other four movies all have their flaws, and it’s part of what makes them complex and fascinating to watch. Bening’s Julia is vain and deliciously revengeful; Moreno’s Maria has the itchy pride of one who feels she’s better than her small town (she is); Staunton’s Vera is incredibly short-sighted (no matter your view on abortion); while Winslet’s Clementine: Impetuous, nutty, impossible. That Swank’s Maggie is complex without a flaw is a testament to her acting; but if it’s a flaw not to have a flaw, then this could be a chink in her armor.

Sum up
So here are the nominees, in easy-to-read format:

Hilary Swank as Maggie Fitzgerald in “Million Dollar Baby”

Sipa Press

Strengths: Lots of buzz, youth, a Golden Globe winner and her movie has seven nominations, including best picture.
Weaknesses: Already beat Bening once. Has she no heart? Plus the “no flaw” thing, but, okay, nobody’s going to listen to me on that one.

Annette Bening as Julia Lambert in “Being Julia”

Sony Pictures Classics

Strengths: A distinguished Hollywood actress with no Oscars on her shelf who’s already lost to the upstart Swank once.
Weaknesses: A light comedic performance in a picture that few people saw. In fact, she’s the film’s only nominee. (On the other hand, so was Charlize Theron in “Monster.”) Plus she’s over 40, which is like death for women in Hollywood.

Imelda Staunton as Vera Drake in “Vera Drake”

Fine Line Features

Strengths: Won virtually every film critics association award in America.
Weaknesses: Won virtually every film critics association award in America. (The Academy seems to care even less what critics think than the general public.) And she’s over 40. And fewer people saw her picture than “Being Julia,” which is almost impossible.

Catalina Sandino Moreno as Maria Alvarez in “Maria Full of Grace”

Peter Kramer / Getty Images

Strengths: She’s a babe, and the elderly, heavy-breathing Academy likes babes these days.
Weaknesses: It’s a little-seen, Spanish-language film. As with Bening, she’s her picture’s only nominee.

Kate Winslet as Clementine Kruczynski in “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

Ho / Focus Features

Strengths: Another babe, who appears in the most popular film in this category — which is to say the 76th most popular movie of the year (and dropping). It’s also her fourth nomination — the most of any of these actresses — with no award yet.
Weaknesses: When was this movie released again? Wasn’t it a comedy or something, with, like, Ben Stiller?

After you parse it out like this, it appears to be a slam-dunk for Hilary Swank. But if the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that slam-dunks can miss, too.

MORE FROM MORE OSCAR NEWS

Rivers duo praise Oscar gowns

Rivers duo praise Oscar gowns Warner Bros. KOs Miramax in Oscar race ‘Sea Inside’ wins for best foreign film Vote: Who should win the Oscar? How to make a memorable Oscar speech ‘Million Dollar Baby’ has momentum Best song? More like most mediocre Best actor belongs to Jamie Foxx Best supporting actress showdown Rock's not sanitized for your protection   Add More Oscar news headlines to your news reader: