Something rotten in the state of Hollywood

Wanted: The Bill James of movies
Twenty-five years ago Bill James helped create a revolution in the way we look at baseball statistics by asking simple questions. What’s the point of baseball? To win. How do you win? By scoring the most runs. How do you score runs? By getting on and moving around the bases. He concluded that the best measure for a hitter was not the traditional one — batting average — but on-base and slugging percentage. Eventually the baseball world agreed with him.

The movies need a Bill James. Every Monday we get a list of the Top 10 movies in terms of box office, but it only says what Hollywood wants to know ($$), not what we need to know. Which movie has the highest per-theater average? Which has the lowest? Are these films popular because people like them, or because they’re being pushed on us?

Box office results Estimated ticket sales for Nov. 6-8 1. "A Christmas Carol," $31 million. 2. "Michael Jackson's This Is It," $14 million. 3. "The Men Who Stare at Goats," $13.3 million. 4. "The Fourth Kind," $12.5 million. 5. "Paranormal Activity," $8.6 million. 6. "The Box," $7.9 million. 7. "Couples Retreat," $6.4 million. 8. "Law Abiding Citizen," $6.2 million. 9. "Where the Wild Things Are," $4.2 million. 10. "Astro Boy," $2.6 million.

Sometimes you wonder if distributors even know what they’re doing. The most likable, date-friendly romantic comedy of 2004 was “Garden State” (88 percent), but it didn’t even earn a wide release (1000 or more theaters), let alone a very wide release (2000 or more theaters). Yet it still pulled in $26.7 million.

How many 2004 movies earned a very wide release and didn’t earn that much? Thirty-five: “Chasing Liberty,” “Disney’s Teacher’s Pet,” “Torque,” “Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!,” “The Perfect Score,” “The Big Bounce,” “Catch That Kid,” “Eurotrip,” “Welcome to Mooseport,” “Twisted,” “Havana Nights,” “Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London,” “The Alamo,” “The Whole Ten Yards,” “The Girl Next Door,” “Godsend,” “Laws of Attraction,” “Envy,” “New York Minute,” “Around the World in 80 Days,” “Two Brothers,” “Sleepover,” “Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle,” “Thunderbirds,” “Little Black Book,” “Yu-Gi-Oh! The Movie,” “Paparazzi,” “Wicker Park,” “Mr. 3000,” “Wimbledon,” “First Daughter,” “Raise Your Voice,” “Surviving Christmas,” “Seed of Chucky,” and “Alfie.”

Fox Searchlight Films and Miramax Films Why didn't "Garden State" earn a wide release?

So why didn’t “Garden State” earn a wide release let alone a very wide release? Was its star, Zach Braff, too unknown? Too Jewish? Was the film too slow? Too quirky? Did it test poorly? Are these tests accurate? (Initially, remember, “Seinfeld” tested poorly.) By the way: Of the aforementioned 35 films, only four were considered “fresh” on rottentomatoes.com, and none of these came close to “Garden State’s” rating. Maybe there’s a lesson in there somewhere.

What’s the point of movies? To entertain us with stories. Is this being done? Well, 44 for 157 would indicate…not particularly.

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