Something rotten in the state of Hollywood

What’s the worst movie month?

Let’s consider the question logically first. If a movie tests well it’s going to be released when people have money and time, which is during the summer months or winter holidays; and if a movie is award-worthy the studios will push it into theaters before December 31st. The holidays for Hollywood are like the holidays for you and me. They have to entertain a lot of people and by the end their cupboards are bare. What’s left? Just dusty stuff on the back shelf that never looked particularly appetizing in the first place. That’s what they serve in January. January, for moviegoers, is dried onion soup mix month.

Of course some people actually like dried onion soup mix. So is there any way to back this up statistically? Is there a way to quantify quality?

The closest thing we’ve got right now is rottentomatoes.com, a Web site which gathers movie reviews (100 or more for wide releases), assigns a thumbs up or down if the critic already hasn’t, and tabulates the results. If 60 percent or more critics like a film, it’s considered “fresh”; if 59 percent or lower don’t, it’s considered “rotten.”

Fox Searchlight Pictures Is "I Heart Huckabees" really two percent better than "Ocean's Twelve"?

There are obvious problems with this strategy. The “fresh” and “rotten” numbers are arbitrary. “I Heart Huckabees” got a 60 percent rating, so that’s considered a good movie. “Ocean’s Twelve” got a 58 percent rating, so that’s considered a bad movie. One or two percent, apparently, can make all the difference.

The site also includes too many online and marginal critics. (To my mind, you shouldn’t be included unless someone hires and pays you for your opinion.) Then there’s this thumbs up/down business. Most publications employ a four-star system or a letter grade. But what about those awkward B- or two-and-a-half star movies? Someone at rottentomatoes has to point our thumbs one way or the other, and, for me anyway, it’s often not the way I would point it. Did I really recommend “The Medallion,” for example? I wrote, “As special effects reveal how super Eddie Yang is, they also reveal how ordinary Jackie Chan has become.” That’s a recommendation?

Brother, can you spare a theater
Still, the site can tell us a lot about the recent year in movies. According to my calculations, 157 movies were released at least marginally in 2004. (A marginal release, for the purposes of this article, is 500 or more theaters; a wide release is 1000 or more theaters; a very wide release is 2000 or more theaters.) Of these 157 movies, 44 managed a “fresh” rating.

Walt Disney Pictures "Teacher's Pet" earned a "fresh" 76 percent rating from rottentomatoes.com

The best month was July, in which seven of 13 films were considered fresh. The worst month? A tie, between our old pal January, and (surprisingly) May, both of whom went one for 10. The good news for May is that its one hit was a grand slam, “Shrek 2,” with a 90 percent rating and $436 million U.S. box office, while January managed only a bloop single, “Disney’s Teacher’s Pet,” with its 76 percent rating and $6.2 million. So, yes, even statistically, January gets the worst movie month award. Congratulations.

But February can’t exactly pat itself on the back either. It went two for 13 (“Barbershop 2” and “Miracle”), while both August and September had just three winners each. March was the first of four months (April, October, and November were the others) to give us four good movies, while December had five, and June went six for 12. Add it to July’s totals and it’s obvious that summer ruled in 2004.

If these overall numbers seem low to you (44 for 157 is just a .280 batting average), please don’t assume movie critics are being elitist here. Among their recommended films? “Starsky & Hutch” (62 percent), “Hellboy (78 percent), “I, Robot” (61 percent), “The Terminal” (63 percent), “Wimbledon” (62 percent) and “Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow” (73 percent).

20th Century Fox Even a strong month like June can produce a "rotten" film like "Garfield."

No, the numbers are low because many of the better-reviewed movies don’t manage even a marginal release and so haven’t been counted. Stuff like “Garfield” (13 percent), “Catwoman” (9 percent), and “Taxi” (9 percent) get dumped into over 3000 theaters opening weekend, and even middling fare like “Paparazzi” and “Wicker Park” (19 percent and 22 percent) will see 2000 or more theaters; but movies that critics rave about barely play.

In its best week, Richard Linklater’s “Before Sunset” (94 percent) was seen in only 203 theaters. “Touching the Void” (93 percent)? 137. One of my favorite movies of 2004, the surfing documentary “Riding Giants” (91 percent), had a high of 64 theaters one week. That’s it. Even the best week for the best-reviewed movie of the year, “Sideways” (96 percent), saw just 497 theaters, or about one-fifth of the theaters “Wicker Park” saw its opening weekend.

MGM via Reuters More theaters showed "Wicker Park" than "Sideways"? Say it isn't so.

None of this is news, particularly, but it is a reminder of how marginalized quality is. It also raises a variety of complex issues. Do the majority of Americans go see crap because they like crap, or because it’s the only thing playing at the local cineplex?

Looked at one way, the stats blame the public. For 28 weeks last year, the number one movie in America was a rotten one. Looked at another way, the stats blame the movie distributors. For 29 weeks last year, the most widely distributed movie in America was a rotten one. Want to hear the scary part? Eleven of these weeks don’t match. That is, distributors blanketed America with a rotten movie, which America smartly side-stepped…only to go see a different rotten movie. It’s no wonder I’m cynical.

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