First Glance
In a homeland security-heavy day, the President is expected to announce his nomination of Bernard Kerik to head DHS at 9:50 am, and also plans to send his GOP friends in the House a letter asking them to please pass the intel reform bill on Monday.  

The orderly chaos of Cabinet post resignations and nominations continues, with Tommy Thompson appearing to be the next to go, and Medicare administrator Mark McClellan already being floated as his likely replacement.

Democrats have some relatively good news to contemplate: The Democratic National Committee outraised its Republican counterpart in the 2003-2004 cycle (by either $4 million or $12 million, depending on how you calculate it).  And, per a new NBC analysis of the exit poll data, Bush performed less well among Hispanic voters overall than was previously projected, getting 40%, as opposed to other projections of 44%; see below. 

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That being said, Bush made real gains among this growing voting bloc, and as the RNC points out in regards to being outraised by the DNC, Bush still won.

Meanwhile, Democrats' 2004 presidential nominee is still not only out of public view, but party insiders suggest he's not doing much to capitalize on the reservoir of goodwill for him following his loss -- and indeed, you could argue that he's frittering it away.  First, Democrats in DC were annoyed to discover that Kerry finished the election with $15 million left in the bank which could have gone to other candidates or party committees.  Kerry then proceeded to push Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack for DNC chair without, in the view of some DNC members and operatives, going through the proper channels.  And he waited till nearly one month after election day to have his lawyers get involved in the recount effort in Ohio, arguably breaking his pledge to make sure every vote is counted, and more practically, leaving those recount activists hanging without a show of support.

And yet, Kerry heads to Manchester, NH tomorrow to hold some closed meetings...

In addition to the Kerik announcement, President Bush today signs HR 1350, The Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act of 2004, at 10:20 am, then at 2:25 pm signs S 150, The Internet Tax Nondiscrimination Act.  McClellan gaggles at 9:20 am and briefs at 12:30 pm.

And Democratic candidate Christine Gregoire says she might give up the fight in Washington state's gubernatorial race today, despite an infusion of hundreds of thousands of dollars from various Democratic entities to help pay for another recount.  Democrats have until 8:00 pm ET to submit a $750,000 deposit.

Other countries' elections
The Washington Post calls Bush's standing firm on the Iraqi election date yesterday "his strongest reaffirmation of the election plan" yet.

"Both Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, in separate appearances Thursday, joined in Bush's demand that the election go forward as planned."  - Los Angeles Times

In Ukraine, the Supreme Court is expected to rule as early as today on its evaluation of the November 21 run-off results.  Russian President Putin is siding with outgoing President Kuchma and their favorite, Yanukovych, in opposing a quick, second run-off election in December, which reformer Yushchenko favors.  Putin also wants other candidates to be allowed to participate in the new election. 

Yushchenko has a Wall Street Journal op-ed in which he seeks to deflate the outgoing government's "threat of separatism and the dissolution of Ukraine.  I state with full responsibility for my words: This is a fictional, artificial threat.  It does not exist."

The Washington Times notes one likely reason for Yushchenko's push for a quick repeat run-off: "Mr. Yushchenko runs the risk that the mass demonstrations in his support will lose steam and he will run out of funds."

The Boston Globe suggests that the pro-Yushchenko protest "seems to have taken on a life of its own and seems to be no longer under Yushchenko's control, if it ever was."

The Los Angeles Times, on the other hand, reports from eastern Ukraine: "any court decision to annul the allegedly fraudulent results that led to Yanukovich's victory at the polls will surely leave large numbers of citizens in the east feeling angry, disenfranchised and perilously alienated."

And the Boston Globe reports on the January 9 Palestinian Authority election: "A former communist who runs a respected Palestinian human rights organization, a professor with ties to Islamic groups, and a lawmaker known for exposing government corruption are among the 10 candidates... in what analysts here say will be the first truly competitive presidential election in the Arab world."

Bush II
The New York Times notes that many prominent New Yorkers -- including Democrats -- are pleased with Kerik’s nomination to DHS, because they believe he’ll be an advocate for delivering (still) more homeland security funds to New York.

The Chicago Tribune reminds us: “Though Kerik was hailed in the aftermath of Sept. 11, a consulting group's study found problems in the response by New York Police and Fire Departments to the Trade Center attacks.  McKinsey and Co. said in a report in August 2002 that the NYPD leadership suffered from the lack of a 'single, strong operational leader' and a clear command structure..."

The Los Angeles Times: "Other contenders for the post... have more experience with the Washington bureaucracy and with Congress, qualifications many observers said would be necessary to manage the department's varied and sometimes conflicting parts...  Some of Kerik's biggest challenges could come in trying to deal with Congress.  The funding formula skews domestic security money to states with low populations, rather than to likely terrorist targets."

The Washington Post: "White House officials described Kerik... as a proven crisis manager...  Other Republicans said Kerik would provide a telegenic presence, and one presidential adviser pointed out that Kerik 'brings 9/11 symbolism into the Cabinet'...  Some Bush officials said they were concerned about his lack of Washington experience..."

The Post story also notes that Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator Mark McClellan is likely to replace Tommy Thompson.  And it says that although Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson was the White House's first choice for ag secretary, "Nelson called Rove back Nov. 17 to say he was not interested...  But he said he was interested in two other Cabinet posts, according to a Republican familiar with the exchange.  Nelson said that he... would be interested in being commerce secretary and that he... would also accept the job of energy secretary, the Republican said."

The Lincoln Journal Star says that with Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns as Bush's pick for ag secretary, "the state faced its first gubernatorial resignation in more than a century, elevation of Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman to the governorship and a totally restructured 2006 Senate race."

USA Today covers Danforth's departure from the UN Ambassador post.

The Wall Street Journal says conservatives are pushing former Sen. Phil Gramm (R) for the Treasury slot not yet vacated by Secretary Snow: "The former Texas senator isn't close to Bush, but the Republican right believes it has little to show from Cabinet shuffle so far."

The Bush agenda: Intel reform
In a letter to congressional leaders today "that will emphasize his support for the compromise legislation... and ask that the House pass it on Monday," Bush "will deal with the two issues House Republican leaders have cited as obstacles to approval -- protection for war fighters and control of illegal immigration." – Washington Post

The Washington Times says that in blocking the intel reform bill, "some congressional Republicans say they were showing President Bush he will split the party if he goes ahead with his broader immigration-reform plan...  Some Republicans say the intelligence bill impasse should be seen as the first round of a broader fight over the president's proposed guest-worker program."  Incoming RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, not surprisingly, disputes the idea that the party is divided on the issue.

The Bush agenda: Taxes, the deficit, and Social Security
The Los Angeles Times says the President's scheduled December 15-16 economic summit "is modeled after one that Bush called in Waco, Texas, in the summer of 2002 as the nation was struggling to recover from a recession.  Widely regarded at the time as a public relations effort, the meeting nevertheless helped set the stage for one of Bush's across-the-board tax cuts."  Scott McClellan "did not dispute the notion that the two-day session was, at least in part, an effort to build and shape public opinion for Bush's economic agenda."

Note that McClellan yesterday also argued in the White House briefing that the transition costs of Social Security private investment accounts, estimated at almost $2 trillion, "will actually be a saving in the overall costs in the long haul for Social Security." 

Meanwhile, a top Bush economic adviser suggested that any overhaul in Social Security would have to include cuts in benefits for future retirees, the New York Times reports.  “‘Let me state clearly that there are no free lunches here,’ said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, at a conference on tax policy...  In his speech, Mr. Mankiw flatly rejected raising taxes as a means of saving the federal retirement system...  Instead, he took particular aim at a specific feature of current law under which retirement benefits are linked to the rise in wages rather than the rise in consumer prices.”

Richard E. Efford, a mid-level GOP aide on the House Appropriations Committee, takes the blame for inserting that provision into the spending bill "that could give staffers on the House and Senate appropriations committees broad access to Americans' tax returns."  - Washington Post

Democrats' post-mortem
The Democratic National Committee outraised the Republican National Committee for the 2003-2004 cycle, marking the first time ever that the DNC has outraised the RNC for a cycle.  And it is yet another demonstration of unprecedented Democratic fundraising -- between the Kerry campaign, the 527 groups, and the party -- in defiance of the earlier CW that Democrats would be in dire straits in the McCain-Feingold era.

"Total spending on the presidential campaign from all sources seeking to influence the outcome exceeded $1.7 billion, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and the Internal Revenue Service.  At least $925 million was spent in support of Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) and $822 million in support of President Bush.  In the 2000 presidential contest, total spending was just under $1 billion."  The Washington Post says the increase was largely due to the two candidates' decisions to forgo public financing in the primaries.

The New York Times: “Republicans acknowledge that the committees were evenly matched financially, though noting that it is President Bush, not Senator John Kerry, who will be inaugurated next month.”

NBC's Ana Maria Arumi addressed the National Association of Hispanic Journalists in DC yesterday with some findings from the exit poll.  "Out of the 250 precincts in the national survey there were 11 plurality Hispanic precincts," she writes for First Read.  "Through the luck of the draw, four Hispanic precincts were in Florida and three of those were in Miami-Dade County.  This demonstrates some of the clustering effects you can have in a national sample of 250 precincts when you are looking at breakouts of subgroups like Hispanics -- in this case an overrepresentation of Cuban opinion in the overall Hispanic numbers."

"To ameliorate this clustering problem I aggregated the 50 state polls which were collected from a total of 1,469 precincts and looked at the Hispanic data in this much larger sample, which yielded smaller, but still significant, Bush gains among Hispanics:" 40% for Bush to 58% for Kerry.

With Democrats grasping for answers to turn their defeat in 2004 into victories in 2006 and 2008, Democratic governors assembled yesterday in DC to emphasize that they should be playing a stronger role in rebuilding the party.  "We have to be the center of gravity in the Democratic Party, because Democratic governors know how to get elected in the red and blue states," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the newly elected DGA chair and potential presidential candidate in 2008.

Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, the new DGA vice chair, added, "We are very pragmatic.  We are very fiscally responsible.  And we are very centered on the things that average citizens care about, because we are out on the ground and we see it every day."  Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell chimed in that Democrats who live in the Beltway "don't understand how issues are playing out in the heartland...  Too much of our party gets trapped inside the Beltway."

During the Q&A, Granholm addressed the question of values and said that Democrats need to talk about them in a way that's consistent with the party's philosophy.  She cited a passage from Matthew in the Bible: "Inasmuch as you have done it unto one of the least of my brethren, you have done it unto me."  "That's a value, that's a Democratic value," Granholm said.

Also during the Q&A session, the matter of the next DNC chair was brought up.  Richardson said the governors would endorse a candidate before they vote in February, but he said that they believe the party should adopt a co-chair system -- one chair to serve as the CEO, and one to be the party's spokesman.  Granholm said the chair, or chairs, should be centrist; comfortable in battleground and red states; and able to speak to the Heartland.  Rendell quickly added, however, that the chair also needs to represent the party's base.  (All traits easy to find in one single candidate, we'd note...)

The Washington Post mentions that several of the governors "demurred when asked about the possible candidacy of former Vermont governor Howard Dean, a past chairman of the DGA."

Also, during the presser, the DGA sign attached to the front of the podium fell off.  Granholm quickly swooped down and placed it back on the podium.  "Wait a second," she said.  "This is not a metaphor."  A few minutes later, however, the sign fell off again, and remained off for the rest of the presser.

The Washington Times: "The governors did not direct any of their criticism against Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts,... but some pointedly said the party had to erase its liberal image."

2004
The AP summarizes the recount situation in Ohio, including Kerry's recent involvement, and the delayed lawsuit that was expected to be filed earlier this week: "a lawyer representing a group alleging fraud in the Ohio presidential election put off until at least Friday the filing of a challenge to the results.  Cliff Arnebeck, who alleges that votes intended for Kerry were shifted to Bush, said his legal team needed more time to collect and analyze evidence.  He said the filing could take place as late as Monday."

Final tallies in Ohio give Kerry 18,000 more votes, reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  "The new totals mean Bush beat Kerry 2,858,687 to 2,740,244 - a margin of slightly more than 2 percent and far greater than the 0.5 percent margin needed to trigger an automatic recount."

Democrats might not have enough money to pay for another recount in Washington state’s gubernatorial race.  The Seattle Times reports that Christine Gregoire (D) said that she is willing to concede the race today unless her party raises enough money to conduct a full, statewide recount.  But "Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt said he will request a recount in only a few selected counties if that's all the party has money to pay for when the 5 p.m. deadline hits today.  He said Gregoire can concede the race to Rossi, a Republican, if she wants.”

“Berendt said yesterday he had raised $650,000 of the $750,000 needed as a deposit for a statewide hand recount of the nearly 3 million ballots.  He said he was optimistic he would raise the rest today.” 

2005
The Newark Star-Ledger on just-announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jon Corzine: “Republicans attacked Corzine yesterday, accusing him of spreading millions in campaign contributions around the state to support a corrupt ‘Democratic boss system.’”

However: “…Corzine said he will refuse campaign donations from people associated with firms that have state contracts.  He will limit individual contributions to $500 -- more than $2,000 lower than state law allows.  And he said he would forgo public financing and pay for his effort largely out of his personal wealth, valued at $300 million.”

2008
USA Today notes how "debate over a proposed 28th Amendment" allowing immigrants to run for president "is focused on the popularity and political future of one man: macho Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger."

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