Poll: Bush, Kerry in Tie Before Election

WASHINGTON - Many voters are dissatisfied with President Bush's job performance but uneasy about Democrat John Kerry's ability to protect the nation, according to an Associated Press poll that found the two presidential candidates locked in a tie.

"The country is looking for a real leader _ an FDR or a Kennedy," said Warren Hutchinson, an independent from Massachusetts who leans toward Kerry. "There don't seem to be any on the horizon."

Many voters believe Bush is better qualified to protect the country _ an important attribute for an electorate very focused on national security. A majority consider Kerry indecisive, less solid on national security. But Kerry is seen as stronger on creating jobs.

Neither candidate has been able to gain a clear advantage. In the survey of 976 likely voters, Democrats Kerry and Sen. John Edwards had 49 percent, compared to 46 percent for Republicans Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. That's within the margin of error of 3 percentage points for the poll conducted Oct. 18-20.

Many polls out recently show the race even, and some show Bush slightly up.

Almost one in five, 17 percent, of voters remain the target of nonstop campaigning by Bush and Kerry, the AP-Ipsos poll found. These persuadable voters say they're undecided or are tentatively backing a candidate while remaining open to changing their minds.

They are more likely than others to disapprove of Bush's job performance and believe invading Iraq was a mistake. And they are more likely than other voters to believe the nation is on the wrong track, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

More in this group lean toward Kerry than Bush. But persuadable voters backing Kerry are more likely to switch sides than those backing Bush and they're more likely to trust Bush than Kerry to protect the nation.

"Kerry spent his whole time in the debates saying, 'your president has not done this or done that,' instead of saying what he would do as president," said Laurie Anusvkiewicz, a businesswoman from Beckley, W. Va.

Some surveys have found that a majority of voters saying they're concerned about the risks of changing presidents at a time of terrorist threats and war.

"I'm pretty sure I'll vote for Kerry," said Mary Anne Connolly of Middletowne, N.J. "It's more that I don't want Bush. I'm still not comfortable with Kerry. I'm not sure he's real strong on foreign policy."

Despite doubts about Kerry on national security and strength of leadership, Bush hasn't been able to pull away from the Democrat.

Less than half of likely voters in the AP-Ipsos poll, 47 percent, approve of Bush's job performance. A rating below 50 percent spells trouble for any incumbent, and the president hasn't been above that threshold since before the first debate.

Some 56 percent of likely voters believe the nation is on the wrong track, another warning sign. By an 18-point margin, voters believe Kerry would be best at creating jobs. They are evenly split on who would do the best job on Iraq.

The president fares better on national security issues like terrorism. A majority of likely voters approve of Bush's handling of the war on terror and foreign policy. By 7 percentage points, more believe he would do a better job than Kerry of protecting the country; Bush had a 23-point advantage in March.

Mark Silva, 56, of Redding, Calif., has his problems with Bush, but definitely doesn't like Kerry. "I guess we're stuck with Bush," he said.

Among the poll's other findings:

_ Twenty-four percent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before Election Day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush.

_ A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. About as many said they were asked to vote for Bush as for Kerry.

_About three-fourths of likely voters said they have seen ads for Bush and ads for Kerry in the last week.

The steady crossfire of attacks on the air waves has worn out the patience of James Bates, a 44-year-old independent from Reno, Nev.

"I'm sick of all this innuendo, all this untrue stuff," Bates said. "It has no basis in fact. Both sides are guilty of it _ it's a crime."

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AP Political Writer Ron Fournier and Trevor Tompson, manager of news surveys, contributed to this story.