First glance (2 days out)

The NBC News electoral college ratings (no, still no change):
Toss-up states (9): Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Total Toss-up electoral votes: 109
Lean or Solid Bush votes: 222
Lean or Solid Kerry votes: 207

We don't get why you're tying yourself in knots trying to figure out who's going to win this tied presidential race, when all you need to do is check the 'Skins-Packers outcome.

Going back more than six decades, whenever the Redskins have won their last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party has kept the White House.  Today's game at FedEx Field pits (Bush and) the 'Skins versus (Kerry and) Green Bay. 

You may recall that Bush-Cheney have razzed Kerry for months now for screwing up the name of the Packers' Lambeau ("Lambert") Field.  Bush, campaigning in Wisconsin just yesterday, stopped at the field to make fun of Kerry again: "It's good to be at LamBEAU."  Since Green Bay is favored today, perhaps Bush was trying to burst the curse in advance.

This isn't the only time-honored rule of politics being spotlighted two days before Election Day.  The campaigns are debating, via the press, over whether an incumbent president who polls at less than 50% can win re-election. 

We have written here before that a lot about this election has defied what close observers have come to view as the norm for incumbents seeking another term.  While a Kerry victory would be huge, the storyline of dissatisfied voters ousting an incumbent isn't new.  The bigger story would be if dissatisfied voters choose to keep Bush in office, in which case he and his campaign will have succeeded in making this election more of a referendum on the challenger. 

As one Republican strategist recently pointed out in this space, in 2000, voters were happy with the status quo and Team Bush convinced them it was time for a change.  In 2004, it's the opposite: "Can we convince people who are not happy with the status quo to stay the course?"

Kerry aides are earnestly making their pre-election strategic argument: that because Bush is not above 50% in many national and battleground state polls, he can't win because he won't draw sufficient numbers of undecided voters.  Not one but two polling memos issued by the Kerry camp yesterday emphasize Bush's under-50 status.  One of the memos also points out that "the tracking polls in 2000 were almost all wrong," and questions the accuracy of the Newsweek poll, after the mag's latest survey released yesterday showed Bush leading Kerry by six points among likelies.

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Bush advisor Matthew Dowd, meanwhile, says the campaign is seeing some shift in undecideds in their direction -- and argues that the under-50 rule is not the rule of thumb the way it used to be.  Dowd points out that many incumbents polled below 50% in 2002 and still won.  He also notes that the last three incumbent presidential elections showed the undecideds as split, not uniformly going to the challenger.

On the trail yesterday, per Pool Report #4, Bush spokesperson Nicolle Devenish "came to travel pool location and discussed the Newsweek poll...  Ms. Devenish seemed to like that.  'In the battleground states the undecideds are breaking for the president.  Despite all the midnight spinning by our opponent's team, the race is certainly breaking for the president in key states...  The average of all the polls that are out now have us up by three.  The side trying to make the number sound like something they are not is the side most concerned about them.'"

In a press conference call yesterday to augment their poll memos, Kerry campaign adviser Tad Devine also stressed that Kerry is in a better position right now than Gore was in 2000, and that he's tied or ahead in most of the battleground states per their polling and public polls.

By the way, we liked hearing Joe Lockhart spin how Cheney's visit to Hawaii is out of "necessity and weakness."  Cheney heads out there tonight.  MSNBC's Priya David says the campaign is talking up crowd estimates for the rally -- 10,000 right now, which would be the biggest crowd Cheney's ever drawn.  But then again, when was the last time any presidential candidate (beyond Kucinich) visited Hawaii.  

And we'll see what the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal contributes to the polling debate.  The poll will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News at 6:30 pm and in tomorrow's Journal.  

President Bush spends most of today in Florida, with rallies in Miami at 12 noon, in Tampa at 2:20 pm, and in Gainesville at 4:20 pm, followed by another rally Cincinnati at 8:00 pm. 

Kerry speaks at a church in Dayton, OH at 9:45 am and does rallies in Manchester, NH at 3:00 pm and in Tampa at 10:00 pm, then he heads to Orlando.

Vice President Cheney does rallies in Swanton, OH at 9:00 am and in Romulus, MI at 10:50 am, a 72-hour kickoff event in Fort Dodge, IA at 3:05 pm, and a rally in Los Lunas, NM at 6:55 pm.  Then he heads to Hawaii.

Edwards does a campaign event in Jacksonville, FL at 8:00 am and a rally in Greensburg, PA at 12:20 pm, then campaigns in Columbus, OH at 3:50 pm and does a rally in Waterloo, IA at 7:45 pm.  He then heads to Minneapolis.

Today's stops
Both candidates spend the day campaigning in states Bush won in 2000 and where unemployment has declined in the past month.

Kerry kicks off his day in Dayton, OH, where he speaks at Shiloh Baptist Church before heading to Manchester, NH and Tampa.  The Dayton Daily News covers Kerry's arrival and rally late last night at the Dayton airport, which was attended by about 250 people.

The Manchester Union Leader notes that 2,000 people are expected to attend Kerry's rally in Manchester, where Red Sox owners John Henry and Tom Werner and GM Theo Epstein are expected to appear.  McCain campaigned there for Bush yesterday, notes the Union Leader.  McCain "said the Presidential race is so close in New Hampshire that the Bush campaign tried to make one last push to swing voters."

Bush spends most of the day in Florida, with stops in Miami, Tampa and Gainesville, before heading to Cincinnati for overnight.

The Miami Herald notes, "With polls showing a squeaker of a race in Florida, the campaigns this weekend will lavish personal attention on the Florida mecca of swing voters: the so-called Interstate 4 corridor that stretches from Tampa to Daytona Beach, now enriched with tens of thousands of newly-registered voters...  [Bush's] appearance comes as a Florida poll suggests a slim lead: he draws 49 percent to John Kerry's 45 percent with 5 percent undecided."

But the Tampa Tribune, which previews both Bush and Kerry's stops there today, says the ultimate X factor is turnout.

The Gainesville Sun says some 12,000 people are expected at Bush's rally there.

And the Cincinnati Enquirer previews Bush's rally at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark.  "Bush is expected to speak... in a Halloween-themed rally, stay overnight here and take a Marine helicopter to Wilmington Monday for a 7:30 a.m. rally with first lady Laura."

The tape
The New York Times spoke with dozens of voters in five key battleground states, and they said bin Laden's tape hasn't made much of a difference.  "Supporters of Mr. Bush said the bin Laden tape had strengthened their resolve to vote Republican by reminding them of the grave threats still faced by the country, while Mr. Kerry's supporters said the tape was yet another reminder that the Bush administration had failed to catch Mr. bin Laden.  Even the undecided said the tape would not influence their decision."

"Indeed, with passions raised to such a pitch by this election, and with many people already committed to their choices, Mr. bin Laden and his blustering postures may have achieved a strange and remarkable feat: making himself irrelevant."

Nevertheless, a New York Times news analysis has some Democrats saying the tape is "welcome news" for Bush.

Cheney talked about the tape on the trail yesterday, MSNBC's David reports, repeating a standard line at each rally.  The President and Kerry might be trying not to politicize the tape, David says, but Cheney jumped right in.  In Davenport, IA last night: "Iowa voters understand the importance of steady, principled leadership in the White House.  This is no ordinary time for America.  We've all seen the tape recently of Osama bin Laden.  It's a reminder that we are engaged in a global war on terror.  This is a conflict we did not choose, but it is one that we will win."

On a press conference call yesterday, when asked whether Bush and Kerry would have some type of agreement that neither will blame losing on the bin Laden video, Joe Lockhart said he didn't imagine the Kerry campaign reaching out to the Bush camp after Bush jumped all over Kerry on Friday afternoon.  "I don't think that's going to happen," Lockhart said.

MSNBC's Becky Diamond says that if you attended any of Kerry's three rallies yesterday, you'd have gotten no idea that the world's most infamous terrorist had just released a new videotape.  Kerry did not mention the tape once, and it was only at his morning event in Appleton, WI that he repeated his argument about how Bush let bin Laden escape into the mountains of Tora Bora.  At his other two rallies, Diamond says, Kerry basically reiterated the statement of unity that he delivered on Friday. 

Diamond asked Kerry yesterday morning about the possible impact of the tape on his campaign, a question he definitely heard and clearly avoided.  His response: "Hi Becky.  How are you doing?"  Kerry spokesperson Stephanie Cutter told Diamond that Kerry is moving forward and won't let bin Laden affect the election.  Mike McCurry told reporters the same thing -- but did say that he thought the tape was just like the missing explosives story from early last week, in that it  "crystallized" the issues for voters.  When asked by NBC's Carl Quintanilla if he was equating the two, McCurry said no, but that it's up to voters to digest the information. 

McCurry and other aides all said the same thing yesterday about how the tape might affect the race: "We'll find out Tuesday."

The Washington Times says Kerry yesterday criticized Bush for failing to find bin Laden, but that the Bush campaign stayed above the fray.

The Boston Globe reports that a senior Kerry advisor "threatened to ban Fox News staff from the candidate's plane Friday night when Fox initially refused to apologize for a talk show host's comment that a new videotape showed Osama bin Laden with a Kerry button."  But "Kerry advisers quickly backtracked,... concluding that an escalating conflict with a major cable channel just days before the election would do nothing to help the Democratic nominee."

"The furor was a rare moment of visible frustration inside the Kerry camp: Kicking a major cable outlet off of the candidate's plane would almost certainly spark a run of negative stories in the media about Kerry lieutenants lashing out and their pre-election confidence vanishing."

The battleground
The AP reports its Electoral College count: "President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are virtually tied..., fighting over eight to 10 states so close and unpredictable that anything is possible Tuesday night."

"According to an Associated Press analysis, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes.  Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia secured or leaning his direction for 211 electoral votes.  It is down to this: Bush needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes to keep his job.  Kerry needs 59 to move into the White House."

"The remaining 105 electoral votes are in the eight most competitive states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico.  Two other states fall just outside the toss-up category - Michigan and New Hampshire, both of which tilt slightly toward Kerry.  An additional six to 12 states, including the slow-voting Democratic bastion of Hawaii, could come into play if neither Bush nor Kerry wins a clear majority of the popular vote."

The Washington Post front-pages: "This year's election is a virtual rerun of the 2000 race, with many of the same states in the too-close-to-call category.  But four years ago, Bush's route to an electoral majority was clearer than Al Gore's, while this year his path appears no easier than Kerry's, given the states still in play."

"What makes this presidential election so difficult to call is the intensity of voter interest, reflected in swollen registration totals and long lines for early voting, combined with the most aggressive voter-mobilization efforts either party and its allies have ever mounted.  Democrats in particular believe that their ground game may be decisive in the closest remaining states.  The other unknown is the potential impact of Osama bin Laden's Friday videotape message..."

Both the Post and the New York Times break down every battleground state.

Knight Ridder writes up the last round of MSNBC/Knight Ridder polls conducted by Mason-Dixon: "The 2004 presidential campaign nears the finish line with Florida, New Hampshire and six battleground states in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes up for grabs."  Bush "held strong leads in three of the 15 battleground states surveyed - Arkansas, Colorado, and West Virginia - all states he carried in 2000.  He held a six-point lead in Nevada and narrower leads in six others."

Kerry "held a six-point lead in Oregon and narrower leads in four other battleground states.  The leads held by either candidate in 12 of the 15 states were within the polls' margin of error...  In addition, between four and seven percent of the voters in each state remained undecided heading into this weekend."

A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds Kerry leading Bush, 48%-45%.  The Register notes that "Kerry ran more strongly against Bush toward the end of the five-day polling period than he did at the beginning.  Bush had to deal with news reports last week concerning missing explosives in Iraq and an FBI probe of Pentagon contracts with Halliburton, Vice President Dick Cheney's former company...  The release Friday of Osama bin Laden's taped message probably came too late in the week to influence the opinions of those polled... "

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows Kerry leading Bush in that state, 49% to 41%.  The Boston Herald notes that "though Bush will make two stops in Iowa on Monday, he will skip neighboring Minnesota, signaling that the campaign may not see as great a chance of taking the state...  Bush aides note that he stumped in Minneapolis yesterday."

As Cheney sets his sights on Hawaii today, Gore and Alexandra Kerry campaigned in Honolulu on Friday.  The Honolulu Advertiser says Friday's "event was aimed at motivating the Democratic faithful to get out the vote on Tuesday.  But the party also wanted to attract Filipinos who might be turning to Bush."

A new Miami Herald poll shows 61% of Hispanics favoring Kerry over Bush.  "With a million more Hispanic voters across the country this year than in 2004, the high support for Kerry means Bush and the Republicans don't appear to be making the inroads into the Hispanic vote they hoped for after the 2000 election...  This year, about 6.9 million Hispanics are expected to vote nationwide, compared to 5.9 million in 2004."

The Washington Times says that if Democrats win the White House or net more Senate seats, it will be because Democrats collectively have raised more money than Republicans, both hard and soft.

2 days out
The Washington Post editorial page on the Redskins Rule.

After canceling plans to appear with Bush on the trail, Curt Schilling has recorded phone messages targeted at voters in New Hampshire, Maine and Pennsylvania. – Boston Globe

The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein says the election is about one man: George W. Bush.  "[T]he unprecedented sums of money raised by both parties, the long lines of early voters already crowding polling places in many states and the anticipation of a sharply higher turnout Tuesday are all primarily reflections of the passions Bush has stirred in four turbulent years, especially by invading Iraq, analysts agree."

The Washington Post examines the decision voters are making about what kind of leader they want: "The balloting will amount to a great national Rorschach test, with people looking at two starkly different styles of leader and responding in visceral ways about what intellectual and character traits they value in a wartime president, and what balance of force vs. persuasion they seek as the United States relates to its neighbors on an anxious planet."

The story notes this is a "campaign in which the people on different sides of the fault line seem to be living in alternate realities, unable to agree on even basic facts.  One group perceives Bush as one of the great visionaries of recent U.S. history, another as one of its most extravagant failures."

The Washington Post also points out a potentially fat target Democrats have largely ignored in this race: accountability.  "At least as Democrats see it, Republicans should be hard-pressed to avoid accountability for any result -- whether it is the course of events in Iraq or the size of the budget deficit -- with which the public is dissatisfied.  Even so, according to several outside analysts and strategists with both parties, Democrats have done little to advance this line of argument."

On a more technical note, several Kerry aides hyped this weekend as a time of "huge rallies" that would show momentum and energy, MSNBC's Diamond says.  Of Kerry's three rallies on Saturday, two had relatively small crowds: one several thousand and one about 15,000.  Kerry's rally on Friday in West Palm Beach was quite small as well.  Certainly Kerry's crowds in Philadelphia and in Madison, WI were enormous -- approx 60,000 and 80,000, respectively -- but those rallies featured Clinton and Springsteen.

MSNBC's Tom Llamas says Edwards will spend the remaining time barnstorming across Midwest battleground states and Florida, trying to hit as many media markets as possible.  In the race between time vs. travel, Edwards's stump speech will now average around 15 minutes.  Campaign aides tell Llamas that he will play up voices of concerned voters. 

Llamas adds that Edwards and Kerry are increasing their communication with each other.  Campaign aides say the conversations are mostly motivational, with both candidates building off each other's enthusiasm.

Edwards campaigns with Jimmy Buffet in Fort Lauderdale tomorrow night.

Making your vote count
The AP reports, "More than 1.8 million Floridians have cast their ballots through early or absentee voting - nearly 2 1/2 times the number of people who voted early in 2000...  With early voting still available at polling stations Monday - and about 1.6 million requested absentee ballots still outstanding - officials expect the number of early voters to easily surpass 2 million."

A Miami Herald investigation into the restoration of felon voting rights in Florida finds that "[n]early 40,000 people -- 80 percent of the 50,000 felons released from custody between 2001 and 2003 -- still can't vote.  Among those barred from the polls: nonviolent offenders whose crimes warranted little or no prison time, the very people Clemency Board members say should quickly regain their rights."

"Bush has drawn headlines nationwide for his promise to be more responsive to felons who want to vote again.  But on the eve of the presidential election, in a state that bans more people from the polls than any other, the Clemency Board still blocks an overwhelming majority of applicants...  Since Bush took office six years ago, the board has blocked more people from regaining the right to vote than at any other time in recent Florida history."

"Bush refused requests from his staff for more clemency investigators, even as a backlog of applications grew from about 6,000 when he took office to 65,000 at its peak in 2002...  Since Bush took office, the Clemency Board has denied rights to more than 85 percent of all applicants, The Herald found."

The Washington Post looks at voter registration dirty tricks.

Downballots
The New York Times takes a final look at the battle for control of the House and Senate.  "Republicans and independent analysts continued to believe that Republicans would maintain their slim hold on the House, in part because redistricting in Texas has put five Democrats there in jeopardy, and probably keep control of the Senate.  But a surge of early voting, the uncertain influence of the presidential race and a rise in registered voters in swing states had even the most savvy political veterans unwilling to hazard hard predictions."

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