ELMONT, N.Y. - On paper, Saturday’s Belmont Stakes looks like a one-horse race. And even though they will run it on dirt rather than forest byproducts, there is every reason to think that Smarty Jones will stretch his unbeaten streak to nine and become the 12^th Triple Crown winner in racing history and the first since 1978.

Eight 3-year-olds are expected to line up against the 'rolling Jones' named Smarty in the 1 ½- mile Belmont. For each the challenge is identical: Run the race of your life over the longest distance you’ll ever be asked to travel or join the ranks of the 77 foes conquered by the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner in his eight previous races.

Unfortunately for Smarty’s rivals, even if they uncork career-best races on Saturday they are likely to fall short.

The overachieving little colt from Pennsylvania holds a big advantage on paper over the other major contenders. His 118 Beyer speed figure from the Preakness is 10 points higher than the best figure earned by any of his Belmont opponents  -- a 108 racked up by Purge two weeks ago in the Peter Pan Stakes.

Other Belmont trainers are hoping they can erase that advantage by sending out improving runners and catching a road-weary Smarty Jones.

But while their horses may climb to new heights, there is nothing to suggest that Smarty Jones has hit his peak and is on the decline.

He was pricking his ears in search of competition at the end of his smashing 11 ½-length victory in the Preakness three weeks ago. He also appeared to have plenty of energy in reserve, as jockey Stewart Elliott gave him only two taps of the whip early in his impressive drive through the stretch, and he galloped out strongly past the finish line.

The Someday Farm color-bearer also has come back from that race with his usual series of strong gallops and a made-to-order 7-furlong workout last week at his home base of Philadelphia Park, added conditioning that has his trainer, John Servis, exuding confidence.

“I am very happy, and so is Smarty,” he said Thursday after watching his charge “bounce over” the Belmont racetrack in his first gallop at the 1 ½-mile oval. “. . . If he gets beat, it’s going to be something outside the ordinary.”

In hopes of improving the odds of an extraordinary outcome, other trainers are likely to try new tactics in an effort to put Smarty in unfamiliar territory or force Elliott, a journeyman rider but Triple Crown newcomer, into a mental error.

Possible on-the-fly chess moves might include the early application of pressure by stalking horses or forcing the colt to set the pace.

Todd Pletcher, trainer of likely front-runner Purge, suggested Thursday he might employ the latter changeup.

“We tried (chasing him) twice in Arkansas,” he said. “If we can reverse tactics a little bit, I think a couple things we’ve got going in our favor (are) we’re at home now -– the horse trains here every day; had a race over the track, had a work over the track — and now we’ve got some more seasoning and experience than we did (in Arkansas.)”

But Servis said taking Purge back would play into Smarty Jones’ strength by allowing the son of Elusive Quality to set a soft early pace that would hamper closers like Eddington, Master David and Rock Hard Ten.

“If my horse is on the lead, then it’s going to be a slow pace,” he said.

Pletcher’s comment is likely an idle threat, as Purge’s inside draw (post 2) makes it unlikely that he would instruct jockey John Velazquez to take the colt off the pace and risk being pinned along the rail by a wall of horses.

And the trainer acknowledged that Smarty’s draw of the 9 hole, outside all his competitors, will make it much harder to dent the colt’s uncanny professionalism.

“Smarty Jones got a big break,” he said, noting that only the 9 and 1 gates were left when the colt’s connections drew the outside post. “. . . If he draws the 1 and gets away a little slow and everybody knows where he is and everyone is riding against him, that’s potentially a tough spot to be in. From the 9, it’s kind of hard to make a mistake. . . .The worst that can happen to you is you’re in the clear and wide on the first turn.”

The fortuitous post position does appear to be the icing on the cake, as it should allow Elliott and Smarty to sit just outside and behind Purge through moderate to slow early fractions.

That scenario would put the stalkers in a very difficult position, forcing them to either challenge early or watch Smarty employ the “pounce and go” tactics that he used so effectively in winning the Derby and Preakness.

I expect that Rock Hard Ten or Master David will attempt to pressure Smarty before he reaches the top of the stretch, but his high cruising speed will make it difficult for them to overtake him without heavy urging -– something their jockeys are unlikely to resort to before they hit the stretch.

In the end, the Belmont appears likely to be almost a carbon copy Smarty’s previous two Triple Crown victories, with Purge filling the pace-setting role played by Lion Heart in Kentucky and Baltimore.

I see the toast of Philadelphia wresting the lead from a stubborn Purge in the upper stretch and then kicking clear as the closers move into the picture.

At the wire, it looks like Smarty Jones by four lengths over a late-running Eddington, with Master David, Purge and Rock Hard Ten.

Unfortunately for those who like to profit from their racetrack choices, the Belmont isn’t a very appetizing betting race unless you believe you can beat the favorite, who is likely to be the shortest price in the race since Spectacular Bid failed at odds of 1-5 in 1979.

Since I don’t, I’m left to swing for the fences or rely on an interesting trick of the wagering trade to try to eke out a profit.

Reckless sort that I am, I’ll do the former by keying Smarty Jones at the top of a $1 superfecta ticket, which requires the bettor to pick the first four finishers in order. It will look like this: Smarty Jones/Eddington,Purge,Rock Hard Ten/Eddington, Master David, Purge, Rock Hard Ten/All. Total cost: $54.

For those of a more conservative bent, consider this historical nugget: When Secretariat completed his Triple Crown sweep at odds of 1-9, he returned $2.20 to win but rewarded supporters who played him to place with $2.40 –- a cool 20 percent return on an awfully safe investment.

Part of the reason for the discrepancy was that thousands of fans bought $2 win tickets on “Big Red” as mementoes of the occasion -– a phenomenon likely to be repeated given the recent flowering of Smarty Mania.

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