BALTIMORE - We’ve been fooled before – five times in the past seven years, to be precise – but I’m belatedly convinced that Smarty Jones has the goods to become racing’s first Triple Crown winner of the century.

The hazards of predicting victory in the Belmont Stakes – the third and most physically demanding race in the series -- based on the results of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes are easily documented.

Just last year, Funny Cide appeared to have the Triple Crown in his grasp after cruising to a 9 3/4-length victory in the Preakness. But in New York, he ran into a fresh and impeccably bred foe in Empire Maker and struggled home third.

The rigors of two demanding races within two weeks of each other, followed by a marathon three weeks later, explains why racing’s most coveted achievement has been accomplished just 11 times since Sir Barton did it first in 1919. Seventeen other horses have faltered in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont after winning the Derby and the Preakness.

But in Funny Cide’s case, the New York-bred already had lost to Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial and only managed to eke out a 1 1/2-length win over his rival in the Kentucky Derby.

Smarty Jones, on the other hand, has dominated every other 3-year-old he has faced, winning eight times despite racing at eight different distances at five different tracks.

And as the ease of his Preakness victory finally demonstrated with such clarity that even I can see it, he has only gotten better as the taxing Triple Crown campaign has progressed.

Smarty Jones' closest finisher in the Derby, for example, was Lion Heart, who checked in just 2 1/2 lengths behind him. In the Preakness, you needed a telescopic rear-view mirror to find Lion Heart in fourth, more than 13 1/2 lengths in arrears.

Others who have challenged him once, like Arkansas Derby runner-up Borrego, also have regressed the next time they encountered the rolling Jones, unable to duplicate their best effort while he has continued to improve.

Like many, I thought Smarty Jones’ pedigree might be his Achilles’ heel. Even after he outran his sprint-heavy bloodlines to win the Derby, I thought the speed-favoring nature of the Churchill Downs track might have explained how he was able to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance.

But after watching him accelerate away from the field in the stretch of the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, I can no longer take refuge in that particular branch of pseudo-science.

On the charts I use to compare different racing distances, developed by the pace handicapper Howard Sartin and his protégés, the time of :44.06 for the final 3 1/2 furlongs equates to a final quarter of a mile at :24.80, a solid finishing time at the classic distances.

Given his natural speed and the cool handling he has gotten from trainer John Servis and Stewart Elliott, Smarty Jones has an edge over his rivals at Belmont.

Racehorses are not machines, of course, and it’s possible that the Preakness drained him more than it appeared from his strong gallop out after the wire.

Likewise it’s possible that lightly raced Preakness competitors such as Rock Hard Ten and Eddington or that Derby also-rans like Tapit or Friends Lake, both of whom are bred to run all day, will make a big move forward in the next few weeks and run down Smarty in New York.

But the preponderance of evidence suggests otherwise. This game little colt is a freakishly gifted athlete who will dig as deep as necessary to come out on top.

Only slightly chastened for my initial disbelief, I’m looking forward to seeing it.

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