First Read

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• Friday, January 23, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
Old affiliations not seeming to fade: Cheney and Halliburton, Clark and the GOP, Dean and the scream... 

The Wall Street Journal reports, "Halliburton Co. has told the Pentagon that two employees took kickbacks valued at up to $6 million in return for awarding a Kuwaiti-based company with lucrative work supplying U.S. troops in Iraq.  The disclosure is the first firm indication of corruption involving U.S.-funded projects in Iraq and raises new questions about Halliburton's dealings there...  Vice President Dick Cheney, who was chairman of Halliburton until he left in 2000, defended the company Wednesday in a Fox Radio Network interview.  'They get unfairly maligned simply because of their past association with me,' he said."

At last night's unfocused and "relentlessly positive" debate, as the Boston Globe calls it, the rapid response drops did the heavy work and reflected the battle lines of the primary: the Dean campaign issued several releases, all attacking Kerry over special interests, while the Lieberman campaign went after Clark.  The Washington Times is one of few papers to cover the paper: "Lieberman's campaign staffers issued six press releases attacking Mr. Clark, including one that had a political timeline of Mr. Clark's life, during which he has voted for five Republican presidents.  The timeline also included a statement Mr. Clark made at a fund-raiser for Mr. Bush at which he praised Mr. Bush and the administration, saying: 'I'm very glad we've got the great team in office.'"

Today, President Bush stays positive addressing the mayors in DC, while Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie gets negative on the Democratic candidates, particularly Kerry, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Arlington, VA at 2:30 pm.  Per advance excerpts, Gillespie will say: "Whether it's economic policy, national security policy, or social issues, John Kerry is out of sync with most voters.  Americans for Democratic Action-the premier liberal rating organization-puts his lifetime rating at 93 percent.  Sen. Kennedy has a lifetime rating of only 88 percent.  Who would have guessed it?  Ted Kennedy is the conservative Senator from Massachusetts!"

Bush-Cheney campaign manager Ken Mehlman addressed the conference at 8:45 am.  

The Democratic pack is in New Hampshire, though Edwards ducks out to South Carolina, returning to New Hampshire later on.  Edwards may run out of time before seeing the surge he got in Iowa, especially since he's spending part of his time in his self-proclaimed must-win state.  He heads there for an event hosted by the Voter Education Project, a nonprofit civil rights organization.  Per the release, "Edwards will stress the importance of voting in South Carolina's First-in-the-South primary and the need to create one America that works for all of us."

Embed Dugald McConnell notes Edwards is still managing to do at least one event per day in New Hampshire, to make sure he gets on the evening news, but today's schedule has him on a plane for five hours in order to visit South Carolina for just a couple of hours. 

In the "it's 2004, no more kidding around" vein, former GE chief Jack Welch asks in a Wall Street Journal op-ed whether Clark, Dean, Kerry and Lieberman have what it takes to lead the country.  Coincidentally, the latest ads out of the Clark, Dean and Kerry campaigns seem to try to emphasize that they do.  The Wall Street Journal gets Kerry strategist Bob Shrum saying, "'Voters are deciding that Kerry's record is more relevant than Dean's record...  We're in 2004.  Voters are very serious about picking a president.'"

And, the AP: "A study released Thursday by the Washington-based Election Reform Information Project found that - despite promised reforms - only a few states made comprehensive changes to voting machines and registration in the last three years."  Meanwhile, the New York Times editorial page worries about the potential for hackers with the Pentagon's online voting system.

2004 notes (R)
The Los Angeles Times says Cheney declared "there was 'overwhelming evidence' that Saddam Hussein had a relationship with al Qaeda and that two trailers discovered after the war were proof of Iraq's biological weapons programs."

"The vice president stood by positions that others in the Bush administration have largely abandoned in recent months... Cheney has consistently espoused the most hawkish views among senior administration officials.  His statements Thursday suggest he intends to maintain that tone as he takes a more high-profile role in President Bush's reelection campaign."

The blurb attached to the link for the Wall Street Journal's spending bill story says, "The Senate passed a big spending bill full of Bush base sweeteners."

The Washington Times on Bush's homeland security spending plan: "Bush will propose an increase of less than 1 percent for federal programs not related to defense or homeland security, effectively freezing discretionary spending in the next budget, after coming under fire from conservatives to control runaway spending.  But the president will propose increasing government-wide homeland security funding by 9.7 percent in the fiscal 2005 budget, and the military budget is expected to increase by a small amount."

"Some fiscal conservatives, who sharply criticized the president and congressional Republicans this week for spending like 'drunken sailors,' said the proposal leaked yesterday is a step in the right direction so long as Mr. Bush follows through."

"The president actually began making decisions for the budget in early December, long before the recent grumbling by Republicans, Mr. Duffy said, and thus is not responding to GOP complaints.  Conservative critics say Mr. Bush, in fact, has overseen a nearly 25 percent surge in spending over the past three years - the fastest pace since the mid-1960s..."

Another Washington Times story says "Bush is in trouble with his conservative voting base over immigration, excessive spending by the Republican majority in Congress, and the expansion of government that his initiatives are producing, said Republican lawmakers, party leaders and activists yesterday.  But they strongly support Mr. Bush on four issues they consider crucial: a strong national defense, homeland security, the war on terrorism and cutting taxes."

"In interviews and speeches, lawmakers and rank-and-file activists said they believe Mr. Bush is a conservative but is heeding advisers who want him to chase votes in the political center and even left of center, including Hispanic votes."

The Washington Times says Bush's visit to New Mexico yesterday "had the look, feel and sound of a man on the stump."  Still another Times story notes how "Bush, who is publicly eschewing politics until Democrats select a presidential candidate, has dispatched his top surrogates, Vice President Dick Cheney and first lady Laura Bush, to carry his message to conservatives across the country."

The debate (D)
Embed Marisa Buchanan reports that prior to the debate, at a presser after a Roe v. Wade anniversary event, Clark unsurprisingly was asked about abortion, and did not stray from his position of supporting the law implemented by Roe v. Wade and updated by Casey.  The hitch, Buchanan notes, was that Clark kept repeating his position in response to many probing questions.  Clark's campaign later clarified that since abortion is a lightening-rod political issue, Clark did not want to get into the minutiae of the law.  Spokesperson Matt Bennett explained that he and Clark went over the transcript of the press conference later and Clark was briefed in more detail about the subject.  Bennett: "He said nothing wrong, it just wasn't done artfully."  Still, Buchanan says, the impression arguably was given that Clark didn't know much on the subject beyond the basic theme, which arguably looked odd given that the presser was held after a Planned Parenthood event.  Bennett later told reporters Clark was briefed for only five minutes ahead of time and it was mostly the fault of the staff.

Buchanan points out that Clark seemed prepped on the subject for the debate, looking down at notes to explain his position on abortion.  Bennett said that was because the subject matter called for precise wording.

But when Buchanan sat down with Clark to interview him for a Nightly News spot yesterday which included eight different questions surrounding his comments about September 11, Clark started every single answer with little variation on the same four phrases: "I believe the President needs to be held accountable.  I believe the President did not do everything he should have done before 9-11, and after 9-11 he took us into a war we didn't have to fight and he did not do everything he could do to keep this country safe.  I am running to bring a new standard of leadership.  I am going to make al Qaeda and the terrorists who attacked this country my top priority and we're gonna make all the resources of the United States government to make it happen."

Buchanan asked Clark about all of this after the debate.  Clark: "In terms of my positions, they're very clear, they're very consistent.  And they're the positions I believe in.  But because people are looking at every single word, then I've written down every single word.  And especially in the case of Iraq - it's been very important to say this precisely, that's why as the Boston Globe reported, my positions were consistent, my view is coherent and I have been consistent from the beginning."

Beyond that, Buchanan says, the campaign was disappointed that the debate moderators could not seem to move beyond the two basic storylines that have dogged Clark since he entered the race, about his party affiliation and his position on the war.  But, Buchanan suggests, that may have as much to do with the campaign's continuing inability to propel the story forward and get Clark beyond those issues.

The Boston Globe also looks at Clark's back-and-forth with the press on abortion yesterday.

Embed Dugald McConnell says Edwards suggested maybe his rivals were taking a page out of his playbook: "I think a lot of the other candidates have decided that what I did in Iowa and what I'm doing now in New Hampshire, positive ideas-oriented campaign, is what seems to work."  When asked about Islam, Edwards dropped as many names as possible (Musharraf, Karzai, et al,), looking to shore up his national security credentials.  McConnell says staffers were satisfied with the performance, if not with the questions -- especially after the second question on gay marriage, and then the follow-up, was almost identical to the first.

The Washington Post: "No one criticized Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the winner of the Iowa caucuses, or former Vermont governor Howard Dean."

Kerry skipped the spin room, embed Becky Diamond notes, pulling his usual disappearing act after debates.  But he had his usual surrogates there: former Sen. Max Cleland and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter said, "John Kerry held his own ground."  But overall, she said the debate "didn't move anyone forward or hurt anyone either."

Embed Karin Caifa says Kucinich was pleased with his performance: "One advantage I had was to be able to give over and over specific, detailed answers to questions about education and trade and Iraq and the environment.  And to me it was important to have that chance," Kucinich said.  But Kucinich would have liked more opportunities for the candidates to interact: "Considering that this wasn't a typical debate, it was a different kind of debate, an offbeat type of debate... what was wrong was the structure of it which should have permitted a little bit more interplay with the candidates and it was up to us [the candidates] to do that," Kucinich commented post-debate.  He mentioned that he raised his hand several times in hopes of the moderator calling on him to make a follow-up response, but he was ignored.

The Lieberman campaign was thrilled with their candidate's performance last night, embed Dionne Scott reports.  In the spin room, aides could barely contain their glee, using adjectives like "fabulous" and "great."  Lieberman himself characterized the evening as his "best debate" and a "turning point."  The campaign is hoping history repeats itself on January 27, as with Edwards in Iowa -- that Lieberman's forgotten candidacy will suddenly surge and surprise everyone.  And some of the same elements are there, Scott notes: He's in single digits very close to the primary; a statewide newspaper, the Union Leader, has endorsed him the way the Des Moines Register endorsed Edwards; and Lieberman has gone positive, avoiding criticizing his rivals.  But the context is different, Scott writes: Lieberman's down in the polls after Iowa, meaning a stage of sorts has already been set; the Union Leader is a conservative newspaper and the state party chair has even criticized Lieberman for accepting that endorsement; and Lieberman has gone positive only after making a name for himself as the attack dog.

Still, as the campaign points out, Iowa and New Hampshire historically don't often choose the same candidate.

The Union Leader fact-checks the debate, examining Kerry's statement about camping on National Mall in 1971 to protest the Vietnam War, Edwards' statements about the Defense of Marriage Act, and Clark's remark that he never used the word "guarantee" when he said he would prevent another September 11 if elected president.

The Boston Globe gives some of the debate organizers a tough editorial: "After all these years, you'd think the TV people would know how to run a debate. Outrage Number One was the arrogance of Fox News in deciding that the yammering of Chris Wallace, Fred Barnes, and Morton Kondracke was more interesting to voters than the final remarks of Democrats seeking to be president . . .The panel of questioners had no diversity, and no personality.  The candidates had only a bit more diversity, but a welcome dose of personality."

More New Hampshire (1/27)
The AP rounds up the ads now running.

The New York Times on Dean's attempted retooling: "It is not surprising that candidates change their tack. The economy here is different from Iowa's. There is no talk about farm subsidies, corporate meatpackers or ethanol. And primaries are different from caucuses."

Dean stuck to his new script yesterday, embed Felix Schein reports.  Balanced budgets and health care policy mingled with admissions of personal shortcomings, criticism of his "Washington" opponents, and a professorial presentation; Iraq took a back seat.  But for all the talking the candidate did on Monday, it was Judy Dean who made the real impact.  While her husband launched his transformation and delivered a strong debate performance, it was Judy Dean who stole the show with the  Primetime interview reminiscent of the Clintons' 1992 appearance.  Taking all the edge off her husband, the other Doctor Dean delivered a reserved, supportive and captivating performance to an audience looking for some sign that Howard Dean isn't how he appeared to be on Monday night.

After months of speculation surrounding Dean's wife, Schein says, she has now twice delivered under difficult circumstances.

The New York Times gives the Deans' TV interview huge play.

Walter Shapiro covers the "test marketing of the sadder-but-wiser Dean," which features "a glossy campaign film ending with the tag line, 'I get it now.'"

"Dean made a point of not apologizing for his actions," the Boston Globe says, referring to the scream.  "Instead, he said they were a display of the passion he would show in pursuing his agenda as president."  The story also notes "Dean's TV appearance with his wife last night came after his having told reporters on Jan. 6 he would not use her as a 'prop' in the campaign."

"Republicans yesterday expressed concern that Sen. John Edwards has successfully lowered expectations for his performance in next week's New Hampshire Democratic primary," the Washington Times reports, "even though he is spending cash like a man expecting to win the pivotal state."  The CW that the race is between Dean. Clark and Kerry "has allowed Mr. Edwards, who made a surprisingly strong second-place finish in Iowa, to campaign largely under the radar screen in New Hampshire."

"Bush strategists have noticed that Mr. Edwards, who made millions as a trial lawyer before entering politics, performed well in the last three Democratic debates, including one last night."

"Republicans also question the conventional wisdom that New Hampshire voters will necessarily support Mr. Kerry and Mr. Dean because they are from neighboring states.  Arguing that familiarity sometimes breeds contempt, they point out that voters might respond better to a relatively fresh face."

"Finally, there is the question of which candidate can most successfully pivot from New Hampshire to South Carolina, which holds its primary Feb. 3.  Mr. Kerry has all but ceded that state to Mr. Edwards by signaling he will concentrate on other states holding primaries that day."

USA Today notes of Edwards' stop at a VFW post yesterday that the "appearance of Edwards, who was never in the military, was emblematic of what he hopes to accomplish in this state's primary Tuesday: do better than expected in territory that by rights belongs to others."

Asked whether he considers himself to be the frontrunner and how he manages expectations, Kerry said, per embed Becky Diamond: "I think I came into New Hampshire as the underdog clearly.  There wasn't one of you that wasn't writing that I was 20 points behind somewhere, and my attitude is until the votes are cast Tuesday night it's fight as hard as you know how.  What I want New Hampshire voters to understand is that I'm prepared to vote to fight for them in the White House just as hard as I fought in Iowa for their support and just as hard as I'm going to fight in New Hampshire for their support...  There's an old saying in sports, you play the way you practice.  And I'm going to show them every day what kind of president I'm going to be, which is a hard fighting, full-time, on the job, fully engaged, take nothing for granted, fight for the people president."

Diamond notes the campaign has sent out mailers criticizing Clark as well as Dean.  Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter says they were sent out over a week ago and that the mailer "merely clips newspaper reports on the candidates.  It is fair to talk about people's positions, policies and statements.  It is not fair to do below-the-belt distortions or personal attacks, like the mail we saw in Iowa."  She said the campaign "has sent out over 684,000 pieces of direct mail in New Hampshire -- all positive.  Unlike others, we have not run any negative ads." She also points out that the mailers were released while the campaign was "getting hit by Clark." The mailers were in response to his attacks as he was "someone in a state by himself with no competitors."

New Kerry e-mail to supporters: "With clarity and elegance, John Kerry is giving voice to the deepest-held values of the Democratic Party."

The Boston Globe reports on the Kerry campaign's redeploying of Iowa staff to some February 3 states.

As in Iowa, there's a GOP contest here on Tuesday, too, the Boston Globe reminds us -- which is McCain's stated reason for coming.  "With all the attention focused on a hot Democratic contest, GOP officials in New Hampshire are yearning for some political excitement to remind voters that there's a Republican primary on Tuesday, too, albeit with just one choice.  So they have arranged, through the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign, to bring big-name surrogates to the state: former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani will be in Manchester tomorrow, New York Governor George Pataki will be in Hillsborough County on Sunday, and McCain will pump up a crowd at a yet-unnamed high school in Nashua Monday from 5 to 7 p.m.  Governor Mitt Romney is scheduled to attend a lunch Tuesday in Rockingham County, N.H., with women who are supporting Bush..."

South Carolina (2/3)
"I love Senator Hollings -- I think Fritz is a wonderful man," Edwards told his press corps after the South Carolina Senator endorsed Kerry yesterday.  But, he continued, "I think we learned in Iowa how important endorsements are."  At around the same time Tuesday evening, embed Dugald McConnell notes, the South Carolina office sent out two press releases touting new endorsements in South Carolina and New Hampshire, mostly mayors and state reps.

Hollings is a WWII vet and a much-loved figure in South Carolina, embed Becky Diamond reports, but he doesn't have an organization in the state that can be transferred to Kerry and translated into votes.  State party executive director Nu Wexler tells Diamond that Kerry's absence in South Carolina hurts him there, and that there is a forum on minority issues in Columbia, SC the day after the state party/MSNBC debate, to which Kerry and Dean have not committed.   Wexler says the Dean people say they expect him to come, but the Kerry people are saying they don't know if he will come. 

The State: "Kerry, who has not visited the state since Sept. 12, must campaign here himself if he wants to have a chance to win the state's Feb. 3 primary, party officials and analysts said."

"Hollings said he encouraged Kerry to stay in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Tuesday, rather than fly to South Carolina to accept the endorsement Thursday."

The Raleigh News & Observer calls the Hollings endorsement of Kerry a "blow" to Edwards -- though we'd note that longtime observers expected it. 

On the perhaps more meaningful endorsement waiting to happen, the Washington Post reports that in the 36 hours after Iowa, Rep. Jim Clyburn, who had endorsed Gephardt, heard "from every Democratic presidential candidate -- some repeatedly -- except for long-shot Dennis Kucinich. They were calling to say hello...  They all have such respect for Jim Clyburn.  They've said so repeatedly over the last year, in so many words and so many forums.  Because he is a good man, a good friend.  And, okay, maybe also because he is a senior African American official in" the state.

Embed Tom Llamas points out that while the Sharpton campaign has billed the South Carolina primary as a potential delegate piñata for the candidate, with only 12 days remaining before that primary, Sharpton has spent most of this week in New York or otherwise away from the Palmetto State.  He does plan to be in South Carolina tomorrow, schedule TBD.

More 2004 notes (D)
One of Edwards' themes is that there are two Americas -- for haves and have nots.  Embed Dugald McConnell notes that now, at the Manchester office, there are two offices -- one for staffers with "A" credentials, and one for the rest.

The AP says the candidates, even Dean, are facing potential cash shortages.  A Washington Post editorial criticizes Edwards for refusing to list of his major campaign donors and bundlers, even though his central campaign message has been to clean up Washington and stop the influence of special interests.

Embed Tom Llamas reports Sharpton seems to have been mistaken on the purpose of the Democratic National Committee's "unity" dinner on March 25.  In a letter sent yesterday to DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe, Sharpton wrote: "I was pleased to read about your recent proposal for a 'unity' event in March, where all the Democratic candidates for President can come together and draw upon the financial resources of our Party and its donors to retire the debts we have incurred in the process of competing in the Primary."  But the intentions of the DNC were not to hold an event to "retire" debt incurred by the candidates.  DNC spokesman Tony Welch told Llamas the event is "a DNC fundraiser for the DNC and the nominee." 

When Llamas told Sharpton this, he said that he supported it, but wrote the letter after reading comments Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi made in reference to Carol Moseley Braun.  Trippi was quoted by the AP on January 17 saying: "Someday there is going to be a big unity dinner and we're all going to retire each other's debt."  Trippi was answering questions on the $20,000 the Dean campaign has budgeted to cover Moseley Braun's travels on Dean's behalf.  Trippi was pointing out that the Dean campaign was not clearing Moseley Braun's campaign debt.  "It came from Mr. Trippi saying... that there was going to be a dinner to pay off debts for everybody, that they were not paying off Mrs. Braun's debt," Sharpton said.  "So if it was a miscalculation, then it was done by Mr. Trippi around their deal with Mrs. Braun."

• Thursday, January 22, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
In New Hampshire, Dean returns to the trail amidst extensive if not quite Gore/Naomi Wolf-like coverage of his campaign "overhaul," as the New York Times puts it.  He does two town halls and rolls out a campaign finance proposal.  Kerry claims endorsements from both Boston papers.  All seven Democratic presidential candidates face off in a high-stakes 8:00 pm FOX/ABC/WMUR debate at St. Anselm College in Goffstown. 

We wonder how the other candidates feel about Dean and his wife having a joint Primetime interview air right after the debate takes place, though the debate won't air live on ABC before the interview -- it airs live on FOX, with excerpts later on Nightline.

The New York Daily News: "The 'Primetime' sitdown... seemed ripped from the Clinton playbook, when Bill and Hillary Clinton did an emotional interview with '60 Minutes' in 1992 when the Gennifer Flowers affair threatened to torpedo his candidacy."

Kerry's hometown paper endorsements: Boston Globe and the Boston Herald.

On the slew of polls in New Hampshire, the Wall Street Journal says, "Privately, Dean strategists said they believed Mr. Kerry actually had pulled slightly ahead, but they were hopeful of stopping the former Vermont governor's fall."

In New Mexico, which he lost in 2000 by 366 votes, Bush makes remarks on national and homeland security: www.roswell-record.com and Reuters.

In DC, both sides of the abortion debate mark the 31st anniversary of Roe v. Wade.  President Bush, before his event in Roswell, NM today, addresses March for Life participants by teleconference, says the Washington Times.   Those gathered for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, VA hear from Vice President Cheney at 2:00 pm.  Sen. Hillary Clinton keynotes the NARAL Pro-Choice America anniversary dinner at the Washington Hilton tonight at 7:00 pm.  (Some Democratic presidential candidates also address a Planned Parenthood event today in Manchester, NH.) 

And Sen. Ted Kennedy gives a big health care speech at the Mayflower Hotel in DC at 9:00 am, countering Bush's SOTU proposals.  Per an advance excerpt, Kennedy will say that "the most important single step we can take to strengthen Medicare is to privatize George Bush, not privatize Medicare...  We're also going to protect retiree coverage.  It's better for George Bush to lose his job than for millions of retirees to lose their health insurance."

Getting back to New Hampshire, the Democratic presidential candidates are finding it tougher every day to claim -- and in some cases genuinely try -- to stay positive as they jockey for position in the crowded New Hampshire primary which depends less on organization than on momentum and allows independents to take part.  Their own veiled attacks on their rivals, balder attacks from supporters, negative direct mail, and unattributed or loosely attributed flyers are, well, flying.

Even the optimistic and positive Edwards has gotten sucked in, after a memo obtained by another network surfaced from an Edwards Iowa staffer to precinct captains outlining how to attack Edwards' opponents.  Edwards last night, per embed Dugald McConnell: "This doesn't change anything that we've done.  We didn't send negative mail.  We didn't run negative television ads.  I didn't know that this had happened, or I would have stopped it.  But no one else is responsible for it."

Embed Marisa Buchanan lays out Clark's very Kerry day yesterday, some of which appeared on NBC Nightly News:

Clark on NBC's Today:
"Well, I like John Kerry.  And I respect what he did as a junior officer in Vietnam.  I was there too, of course..."

Clark at a VFW post at 12:30:
"I'm not trying to draw a distinction between my rank and Senator Kerry." 
You have twice in the last two days...
"I'm just saying we were both young officers in Vietnam we pursued different path of public service.  He pursued the path of elective politics, I pursued the path of staying in the armed forces.  My experience is the experience of executive leadership."

Do you think he was less of a leader because he was a lieutenant in Vietnam?
"Well I was a junior officer in Vietnam and we both did the same kind of thing in Vietnam, we both won the Silver Star. That's not what's at issue here.  It's two different paths of public service.  And I thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify that."

At both events yesterday, Buchanan notes, Clark was introduced by a supporter, Brian Hardy, who is a veteran and former Dean backer.  At the first event, Hardy referenced Kerry briefly in his opening remarks, but at the second event the introduction brought even stronger language, which ran on C-SPAN live: "John Kerry has had an extreme makeover in Iowa, he's gone from being the Boston Brahmin, the man of privilege and wealth to a man of the people.  Don't buy what he's selling.  I don't believe that Mr. Kerry has the kind of record that he touts and I think that's gonna be borne out.  Wes Clark has led an army and he's administered to the health, housing, and education needs of hundreds of thousands of military families across the globe.  Mr. Kerry has run a Senate office and now he wants to run the White House.  There's a stark difference.  Mr. Kerry is one of a long line of presidential pretenders from New England who ran and failed in November."  Hardy preceded to rattle off all those candidates, and that was how the people at the VFW in Rochester were introduced to Clark.  The campaign tells Buchanan they did not discuss the introduction with Hardy.

Buchanan notes Clark must have felt compelled to add some remarks about Kerry at the end of the town hall given his focus on staying positive: "I want to make it clear I do like John Kerry -- he's a friend of mine and whatever people may think I consider him a patriot.  I consider him a distinguished Senator.  I consider him a fine presidential candidate and it's really up to the people of New Hampshire to make the distinction between the two of us.  I'm here telling you what I believe and what I stand for."

The AP adds: "Clark advisers privately acknowledged the retired general's earlier comments about Kerry's military service may have gone too far and could end up being a costly blunder."

USA Today: "Kerry said he is making no significant changes in his strategy.  He doesn't plan to mention his Democratic rivals by name unless questioned about issues on which they differ.  'People want us to talk about our vision for the country and not about each other,' Kerry said in an interview."

Dean, as embed Felix Schein has noted, "said he would 'hark back to the real values of the campaign' here -- his experience as governor, his record of balancing budgets and providing health care to nearly all children in his state, and his willingness to stand up to President Bush on issues such as tax cuts and the war in Iraq."

The Washington Times notes that in Kerry's "special interests" speech yesterday, "Mr. Kerry railed against Mr. Bush, mentioning his name 17 times.  Never once did he mention one of his Democratic rivals."

Still Kerry said in a Herald interview that Dean "is wrongly continuing to promote his candidacy as a movement, given the results of the Iowa caucuses."

One last lead note on Internet voting: Reuters reports that computer science experts say the "US government should abandon an Internet voting system planned by the Pentagon because hackers could easily tamper with election results."

SOTU reax
After watching Tuesday's SOTU address, David Broder says "Bush believes he deserves reelection, not because of No Child Left Behind or Medicare prescription drug coverage but because... he has averted another terrorist attack on this country for 28 months and has signaled nations around the world, by his preemptive war on Saddam Hussein, that he will take the offensive against security threats wherever he finds them."  Broder also observes, the "leading Democratic candidates... believe Bush deserves defeat, not because they differ with his handling of postwar Iraq but because, as Edwards puts it, his domestic policies have separated America into two nations, with the privileged and prosperous on one side and the struggling majority of families on the other."

A Wall Street Journal editorial praises Bush's national security riff, saying he addressed "issues worthy of an election debate, the kind of national security questions that have been missing from Presidential contests since the Berlin Wall fell...   Mr. Bush also seems to be ready for a rumble over the state of the economy, and especially on taxes.  In this he has the benefit of some very good timing.  The recovery is starting to roll, and like all politicians Mr. Bush is giving his policies credit for it.  We happen to agree that his cuts in marginal-rate income and dividend taxes have helped change investment incentives for the better.  And in asking Congress to make them 'permanent' (instead of phasing them out after 10 years), Mr. Bush was all but daring Democrats to campaign to repeal them."

The Boston Globe notes of the SOTU that "the president's selective use of information -- and, critics say, some exaggerations -- obscured the troubles plaguing the economy at home and democracy-building efforts overseas."

"Bush accurately reported growth in the economy and an increase in productivity, but he failed to mention that some 2.5 million jobs have been lost since he took office and that job growth in December was flat.  And while the president noted the US military's capture of Saddam Hussein and the writing of a new constitution in Afghanistan, he left out" the missing WMD.

"The president made only a passing reference to the burgeoning budget deficit, and said he could cut it in half over the next five years.  But the president's own domestic agenda -- including making the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent -- would make it difficult to slash the deficit, analysts say."

"Administration officials say they are confident that the growing economy will produce more jobs."

Yesterday, 40 "Republican House members gathered to hash out how to press Mr. Bush and the Congressional leadership to deal with spending increases that they say are running out of control and a deficit that is reaching alarming proportions," the New York Times reports.   "Their discomfort has been echoed in recent weeks by conservative researchers and commentators who support Mr. Bush on most issues."

The Washington Times: "The $500 billion budget deficits created by President Bush and the Republican-led Congress will be the top economic problem facing the president should he win a second term, Wall Street analysts say."  The story notes, "Mr. Bush's State of the Union address on Tuesday night offered new spending and tax proposals, but no concrete plans to cut the deficit in half as he has promised to do, continuing the pattern that in recent years has led to exploding deficits."

USA Today has economists debating the economic impact of Bush's immigration proposal.

New Hampshire (1/27)
The AP on some candidates retooling their strategies for New Hampshire: "Reeling from his distant third-place Iowa finish, Dean is telling New Hampshire voters that he is the one candidate who has produced reforms, instead of just talking about them.  Bush used a similar strategy to salvage his campaign after the 2000 New Hampshire primary, calling himself a 'reformer with results' as Texas' governor."

"In a nod to McCain, who made campaign finance reform the centerpiece of his 2000 bid, Dean will offer a proposal Thursday to lower the limit of individual campaign contributions.  He also will spend tens of thousands of dollars on TV, radio and mailings to promote himself as a politician willing to take unpopular stands, such as opposing the Iraq war and backing civil unions in Vermont."

"Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut has touted his ability to draw former McCain backers to his campaign."

"Kerry cast his prescription drug plan Wednesday as a sign that he's 'willing to take on the powerful special interests in Washington.'"

The story looks ahead to the February 3 states, and who can afford to do what, where.

The Washington Post previews tonight's debate "as one of the most critical encounters yet in the battle for the nomination, one likely to shape attitudes in an electorate that continues to shift allegiances by the day.'"

The Manchester Union Leader adds "nothing in this campaign may be as pivotal as their answers during tonight's encounter at St. Anselm College."

A separate Union Leader article notes that "Manchester pollster Dick Bennett said 47 percent of voters polled, including 13 percent who call themselves undecided, are open to changing their minds before Tuesday's primary voting.  'The voters are telling us they're going to watch the debate and they're looking for a signal,' Bennett said.  'They want to be able to figure out who to vote for.'"

Embed Felix Schein notes Dean has to prepare for a debate many analysts now consider crucial to his campaign.  Schein says to look for Dean to spend much of Thursday clearly laying out policy differences with his opponents, in particular on tax policy and balanced budgets, in an effort to underscore his role as an "outsider" in this race.  But do not, Schein says, expect Dean to make his case loudly.  Instead, he will most likely continue to tone it down in an effort to appeal to the large number of still-undecided voters in the Granite State.

The Boston Globe says "Dean is hoping to reenergize his presidential bid with a strong antiestablishment message, a process that he began yesterday with a speech denouncing corporate influence on politics and the media, and that his aides say he will continue tonight..."

"Several advisers, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the debate offers Dean a chance to soothe those who may have been unsettled by his growling post-Iowa caucus concession speech, while also positioning himself against special interests...  In particular, Dean may sharpen his criticisms of his three principal rivals here by questioning the Democratic credentials of retired Army General Wesley K. Clark, a past supporter of Republican presidents, while lumping Senators John F. Kerry and John Edwards into the bureaucratic category of 'Washington Democrats.'"

The Boston Globe's Canellos writes, "Saint Anselm's debate is often the last place of hope for struggling candidates...  Howard Dean is the latest supplicant to climb the frozen hills of Saint Anselm..."

"I Have a Scream," Day Three, by USA Today.  The Wall Street Journal says New Hampshire voters "compared it with two other indelible, and ultimately damaging, images of past presidential candidates: former Democratic Sen. Ed Muskie, crying during New Hampshire's 1972 primary race, and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic nominee, helmeted and riding in a tank."

The AP: "Political analysts and pollsters are watching to see if Monday night's enthusiastic, fist-pumping speech becomes one of those famous presidential campaign moments etched indelibly in the public's mind.  Dean's own advisers privately acknowledge the speech was a major blunder that has hurt his standing in polls."

Embed Marisa Buchanan says Clark plans to project optimism and leadership in tonight's debate, and that the campaign is saying they will only defend themselves.  Spokesperson Matt Bennett told Buchanan that Clark will not "unilaterally disarm."

Embed Dionne Scott notes how, for a good part of this campaign, Lieberman has played the attack dog by criticizing Dean and Clark.  Now he seems to be taking a page from Edwards book (although the campaign would argue that they've been positive all along.)  Yesterday, when asked when he'd begin to distinguish himself from Kerry given the new circumstances of the race, Lieberman said he'll distinguish himself by focusing on his record and convictions.  "We're coming to the moment in the campaign where we're making, what might be called, as I said at the beginning of the week, closing arguments.  And my closing arguments are positive.  They're about my capacity as a leader, as a president to unify the country and provide both security for the American people and a better life here at home."

Lieberman notes that he's challenged Kerry on his positions on the war and trade before, but the campaign says it's not likely he will make personal critiques in the coming days.  Scott asked, why the switch?  According to the campaign, it's all about timing.  In the past, they say, people didn't know who the candidates were, but now that they do, the focus should be on who is right for the job and who is electable.

Scott adds that although Lieberman is often accused of not being passionate enough to take the nomination, a couple of his supporters managed to muster up enough anger for him, and then some, when a Clark supporter interrupted a Lieberman rally and chants of "Let's Go Joe."  As a crowd of Liebermaniacs walked down Manchester's Main Street, the Clark backer stood in their way and started yelling "Clark."  After that, Scott says, it didn't take long for a muscle-bound Lieberman supporter, sign in tow, to bulldoze into the man, pushing him off to the side.  The scuffle became so intense that a Manchester police officer had to calm things down.

Edwards embed Dugald McConnell reports Edwards Wednesday went from low to high in the space of just a few hours: During a visit to a high-tech plant, Edwards seemed awkward and distant, speaking to an audience of 25 employees arranged before him like props, rattling through his stump speech before taking questions from reporters.  But just a few hours later, in Portsmouth, Edwards was energetic and engaging, joking with his audience about football and campaigning in a theater-in-the-round setting that the advance staff has recently been using.  McConnell notes the town hall crowd of around 400 was the largest he has seen.  The turnout prompted press secretary Jennifer Palmieri to question the tracking polls that show Edwards stuck in the single digits along with Lieberman.

Embed Becky Diamond notes how Kerry is presenting himself as a man of the people and at the same time, a leader of the masses.  Kerry has others speak for him in ads and at events instead of, or in addition to, using his own voice.  His latest ad, "Best Prepared to be President," features New Hampshire voters touting Kerry's experience and leadership in testimonials.  Before Kerry delivered his speech attacking special interests yesterday, Granite Stater Marjorie Knowles talked about her plight paying her health care bills while battling breast cancer and having to work full-time to maintain her benefits.  Knowles said: "I've spoken to John Kerry several times since my illness.  He's given me hope and his... health care plan would give me the same health care plan that Senators and Congressmen have..."  Diamond adds how Kerry watched the SOTU with a Concord, NH family, and identifies the plights of various people as victims of the economic downturn.

The AP says "Kerry is going personal, working overtime to connect with voters while trying to counter his aloof image and capitalize on his success in Iowa."  Also: "Kerry has made a point of sticking around to take questions as long as voters are willing to ask, and New Hampshire voters are full of questions.  That leaves him stuck at campaign events hours behind schedule and driving staffers to distraction."

USA Today finds: "The lanky senator's rise isn't due to some new strategy.  Instead, he has benefited from missteps by Dean, whose finger-jabbing speech Monday night in Iowa reinforced concerns among some voters about his temperament.  And Kerry has improved his own performance as a campaigner."

Kerry's plan, per the paper: "Stick to the positive.  A 30-second TV ad unveiled Wednesday refers to Kerry's endorsement by the Nashua Telegraph and the Concord Monitor and features testimonials from five New Hampshire residents.  The only explicit target is President Bush."

"Find a victory on Feb. 3 to offset the prospect that Edwards will win the South Carolina primary on that day.  Two likely targets are Missouri, up for grabs with the withdrawal of home-state congressman Dick Gephardt from the race, and Arizona."

"Brace for tonight's debate, which will be televised statewide.  For months, Dean was seen as the front-runner and the target for attacks by his rivals.  Now Kerry is likely to find himself in that role."

Few people in New Hampshire can recall the barrage of ads running there, but these ads have contributed to their overall impression of the candidates, the Washington Post observes.  "'I'm already getting overwhelmed by them,' said Sheila McDonough, 32, a stockbroker.  'It's all a blur to me at this point.  You start to tune them out.'"

February 3 states    
We've said before that Kerry's path to the nomination after New Hampshire is unclear.  The Boston Globe reports, "With his campaign war chest severely depleted by the Iowa caucuses and spending for the New Hampshire primary, Kerry has been on a fund-raising tear to capitalize on the Iowa results, seeking more than $600,000 by tomorrow and asking 10 Democratic Party figures to raise another $100,000 each by the end of January.  Kerry spokesman Michael Meehan declined to provide the campaign's cash-on-hand tally, a closely guarded number."

"Kerry has spent far less time in any of the seven Feb. 3 states than his competition, and is the only major candidate not airing television ads in those states."

"Several Kerry fund-raisers said yesterday that money has been pouring in at an unprecedented clip since Monday...  Kerry netted $350,000 Tuesday in its single best 24 hours of Internet fund-raising and racked up a total of $500,000 in the 39 hours after the caucuses, campaign officials said."

Edwards embed Dugald McConnell reports former Gephardt backer Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina said yesterday he would not endorse another candidate just yet, but that most of Clyburn's inner circle supports Edwards, and that Edwards hopes to pick up other supporters from Gephardt in coming days as well.  Edwards has made more visits to South Carolina than any other candidate, and has a couple of ads running there, but also has a staff of only 11.

The State covers the new Clyburn Primary.

The Washington Post looks at Sharpton's appeals to African-American voters in South Carolina, but notes they are having doubts about his electability.

More 2004 notes (D)
The Washington Times says intensified GOP critiques of Clark are in store.

Kucinich embed Karin Caifa reports on Kucinich's day in Maine yesterday.  About two dozen Kucitizens participated in what the Maine campaign dubbed the "Great Maine Tour and Rolling Reception," a day-long bus trip where, for a donation, one could ride along with the candidate himself.  The bus rolled into stops at the University of Maine, Belfast (where about 500 people turned out), Rockland, Bath and South Portland.  All did not run smoothly, Caifa says, and once again Kucinich was late for appearances.  At the United Church of Christ in Bath, the parking lot was filled by 5:00 pm but Kucinich was a no-show until 6:15.  While the 200 or so folks gathered waited it out, they were entertained by the "Vibration Army," or John and Moriah-Melin Whoolilurie, the campaign's national musicians coordinators.  The two troubadours, decked out in red, white, and blue-sequined tops and baggy red and white flag-striped pants, have found themselves a permanent gig in performing for audiences while Kucinich runs late.  Using their instruments -- or "weapons of mass vibration" -- the duo performed their Kucinich rap. 

But they weren't the only musicians on hand Wednesday, Caifa notes . At the Bath stop, folks were entertained by a women's drumming ensemble called Inanna, who led the group in clapping and chanting, "Peace.  Kucinich.  Love for Mother Earth."

• Wednesday, January 21, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
Political audio of the week: the Dean war cry and -- or some say "versus" -- the State of the Union. 

Since President Bush's address gets widely and deeply interpreted as a campaign-defining speech -- "as political as any candidate's stump speech at a campaign rally," per USA Today -- it arguably doesn't so much divert attention away from the Democratic nominating contest so much as remind a tired-eyed, tunnel-visioned traveling press corps of the bigger general election picture, and remind Democratic voters of the stakes as they choose their nominee.

The Wall Street Journal, weighing the Iowa entrance poll data, says "[a] voter tilt toward economic issues could be good news for President Bush in the long run," since the economy seems to be improving.  "For now, the rise of the economy and the decline of the war as campaign issues appear to have contributed to the sudden woes of... Dean."

"If the Iowa trend holds, the lessening of the war as a campaign issue will be good news for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Iowa winner.  His biggest problem has been explaining to Democratic loyalists why he voted in favor of the congressional resolution that authorized the war in Iraq...  An economic focus may not be so good for former Gen. Wesley Clark," whose "late entry into the Democratic contest was based on his standing as a former general and national-security pro who opposed the Iraq war."

The Wall Street Journal's Harwood says the SOTU "offered George W. Bush the chance to show off the single greatest advantage he holds in the 2004 election.  It let him look like a president.  And it was precisely that advantage that helped drive the outcome" in Iowa.  "Iowa Democrats decided they needed someone who looked like a president, too.  Howard Dean didn't. John Kerry and John Edwards did."

The Washington Times: "The serious tone of Mr. Bush's speech and the formal trappings of a presidential address to a joint session of Congress contrasted sharply with Iowa's dominant image - an emotional outburst by red-faced Democrat Howard Dean."

One of us who was present for that now-infamous Dean speech recalls it not seeming that strange at the time -- that the entire crowd was chanting, stomping their feet, and waving flags, and that Dean seemed caught up in the moment.  On TV, taken out of context, it's a different picture.

The Boston Globe on Dean: "The yell... was loud and guttural, seeming to come from somewhere deep within as he reacted to his third-place finish in Iowa.  Yesterday, Dean found himself struggling to explain the reaction, casting it as a show of passion, while critics said it confirmed the angry streak they hear in his speeches and campaign rhetoric."

Illustrating the level to which this is being taken: The New York Daily News gets psych experts to weigh in on Dean's speech.

Today, President Bush talks about job training in anticipated battleground states Ohio and Arizona. 

All the lead Democratic candidates are in New Hampshire for at least part of the day.  Schedule highlights:

Kerry gives a 12 noon speech at Daniel Webster College in Nashua.  Embed Becky Diamond says Kerry will yet again attack special interests, which seems to be working for him; he's delivered several of these speeches in the last few weeks.  He will criticize Bush and lay out a contrast with the State of the Union while also drawing distinctions between himself and Dean.  A spokesperson tells Diamond that Kerry also will unveil some new health care policies for prescription drugs and for lowering costs.

Edwards, already having stopped in South Carolina this morning, holds his 100th New Hampshire town hall.

The Clark campaign announces a "big endorsement" via conference call at 3:00 pm. 

And a Dean campaign memo says they "roll into New Hampshire as the underdog."  But the underdog has a 9:00 am event and then is heading to Burlington, for a long-planned, down afternoon. 

SOTU (1/20)
Substance-wise, the Los Angeles Times says, "Overall, the president's address was light on what some analysts, recalling the administration of Bush's father, refer to as the 'vision thing,'" and notes the space proposal was missing.  "But that proposal has met with a cold shoulder from many fiscal conservatives...  An administration official acknowledged that initial reaction to the proposal had not been enthusiastic in many quarters of Congress...  Bush also gave comparably short shrift to his immigration reform plan."

(On that, the Washington Times says today, "Opposition to the [immigration reform] plan runs so deeply that the Christian Coalition of Georgia, a conservative pro-family organization, has dedicated a panel discussion for later this month that will focus on the pitfalls of Mr. Bush's plan.")

The New York Times analysis says Bush "used his speech to sketch out what amounted to a blueprint of a two-tiered campaign strategy that balanced compassionate appeals to swing voters on issues like the economy, health care and education with other issues popular with the conservative base he wants to rally."  The Times says the White House was "so eager to highlight" the appeals to its conservative base "that the president's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, telephoned social conservative groups on Tuesday to make sure they would be watching the speech.  Afterward, leaders of some such groups expressed delight."

"An advisor to Bush's reelection campaign said the president's proposals on job training and health care followed a pattern he charted with his education reform bill and his program to add prescription drug benefits to Medicare - stealing the Democrats' thunder on an issue they thought they owned," says another Los Angeles Times story. 

"Bush aides and other GOP strategists acknowledged that the growing federal budget deficit - and the president's own pledge to restrain growth on government spending - imposed a severe limit on the size of the programs he could propose."

The Washington Times on the total bill: "Bush last night proposed an ambitious package of domestic spending that will drive up discretionary expenditures far more rapidly than his recent predecessors." 

"The political impact of Mr. Bush's spending increases remains unclear at this point.  His job approval polls going into 2004 range from 53 percent to 58 percent, according to the latest voter surveys.  But conservative strategists here say that if he does not show some toughness on spending soon, his core conservative support is going to erode.  The White House is betting that is not going to happen because Mr. Bush has shored up his base support by delivering on several key issues of importance to conservatives," like tax cuts, Social Security personalization, expanded free trade, faith-based initiatives and welfare reform.

Getting into the politics of it, the Washington Post: "Bush eschewed the list of new legislative initiatives commonly offered in State of the Union addresses.  Instead, he cited objections that Democratic critics have had to his policies on Iraq, taxes, education and health care -- and offered pointed rebuttals."

The Post's analysis concludes the speech "showed just how closely he and his staff have been following the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, and how conscious they are of the opposition's emerging campaign themes 10 long months before Election Day."

"Never mentioned by name, the Democrats nonetheless populated and propelled the speech...  The specter of the challengers lent some credence to the frequent statements by Bush and his advisers that they expect a very close election this fall.  There was a caution to it that Bush has not displayed in recent years...  The hovering Democrats also gave Bush's speech a distinctly reactive tone."

The Boston Globe: "Bush used the regal setting of the House chamber to convey an image of strength, civility, and hope -- one of his last remaining chances to appear above the fray before the campaign intensifies."

"Still, Bush raised topics that clearly played to his conservative base, most notably gay marriage, which is likely to surpass abortion as the most controversial domestic issue of the campaign."  Bush suggested a willingness to support a constitutional ban on gay marriage.  "Republicans believe gay marriage would be an especially potent weapon against [Dean], who signed Vermont's civil unions law as governor, and against [Kerry], whose home state of Massachusetts is now ground zero for the fight over whether homosexual marriages should be legal.  Though both Dean and Kerry oppose legalizing gay marriage, Republicans contend there is little distinction between civil unions and gay marriages -- and will seek to blur any distinction between the two, especially in conservative-leaning states, during the campaign."

Kerry watched the SOTU with a middle-class Concord, NH family of four, embed Becky Diamond reports.  Bob and Christine Chaisson were thrilled to host him.  Mr. Chaisson, 40 and an active firefighter as well as declared Kerry supporter, said that Kerry was "very personable" and that "I didn't feel like I was sitting next to a man of his stature - we're middle-income people you know."  Diamond suggests Kerry has managed to close the gap between himself and others less fortunate -- they feel he is one of the people these days.

Towards the end of the speech, while the President was still talking, Kerry was reading through his own notes preparing for his interviews on NBC and ABC, as well as a two-minute prepared statement.  The Chaissons braved the cold to stand beside Kerry as he delivered his statement to a gaggle of local and national media.  The statement stressed the same populist themes he's been using on the stump.  (Note that Kerry's "two Americas" line sounds like Edwards' "two Americas" line...)

Edwards: "The state of George Bush's union - the America of the Washington lobbyists, special interests and his CEO friends - is doing just fine.  They get what they want, whenever they want.  But in our America, the union for working Americans is a struggle every single day."

Clark at his town hall last night, per embed Marisa Buchanan, dropped his usual line: "I'm not here to bash Bush, I'm here to replace him."  Clark then laid out exactly why, in his opinion, Bush has not done the job. "The sad fact is that today, two years after he coined the term, we've got a new axis of evil.  It's one our President himself has created.  It's an axis of fiscal policies that threaten our future... foreign policies that threaten our security... and domestic policies that put families dead last.  Call it the Bush axis of evil."  He added later: "He's a got a long record and it's a bad record." 

Kucinich to embed Karin Caifa: "I actually thought it didn't have that much content.  He spent a lot of time talking about terror.  And see, it's kind of instructive.  He can spend time talking about that and if you spend a lot of time talking about that you don't have to explain why America's lost 3 million manufacturing jobs.  You don't have to explain why unemployment, while it hovers around 6 percent it doesn't really reflect the massive unemployment that exists in this country from people who have stopped looking for work.  You don't have to explain why 43 million Americans don't have any health insurance at all.  So just talk about terror and you don't have to talk about anything else."

Embed Dionne Scott says Lieberman dismissed Bush's address as "a highly political document, but not one that reflects reality."  Lieberman said, "President Bush is in a state of denial about the state of the union."  In remarks similar to his stump speech, Scott notes, he said the America the President described is not the one he's seen as he's traveled across the country talking to people who are anxious about job security, health care and national defense.  Lieberman added that Bush offered only "cosmetic ideas" to attack problems of the economy, while he's offered comprehensive plans and set specific goals.

New Hampshire (1/27)
The Chicago Tribune reminds us that New Hampshire is often the "upset state." 

The Washington Post: "Dean has been the target of his rivals, but the Clark and Kerry campaigns have begun to focus on each other, sparring over their military experience and loyalty to the Democratic Party, with those issues likely to be part of the dialogue in Thursday night's debate near Manchester."  Also, the state party chair chastised Lieberman for accepting the Union-Leader endorsement, charging the paper is too critical of Democrats. 

The New York Times: "Clark had been preparing for a one-on-one contest with Dr. Dean, in the belief that his military background and Arkansas roots would allow him to present himself as the Democrat most able to defeat Mr. Bush.  In Iowa, nearly one quarter of caucusgoers told pollsters that electability was their chief criteria in picking a president."

"But now, the field includes another veteran, Mr. Kerry, who served in Vietnam, and another Southerner, Mr. Edwards, both of whom used the electability argument against Dr. Dean to great effect in Iowa.  Further complicating General Clark's to-date largely unencumbered efforts here, Mr. Kerry made an organized effort in Iowa to round up veterans' support, the very thing the general has been doing here."

The Manchester Union Leader writes that Clark contrasted his military service with Kerry's.  "'I stayed with the military all the way through,' Clark told reporters after rallying volunteers at his headquarters.  'I stayed with the United States Army through Vietnam.  I was company commander there.  I fought and I was hit by four rounds.'"

"Mark Kornblau, Kerry's New Hampshire spokesman said, 'We didn't expect General Clark would question John Kerry's courage and commitment to country given his record under fire, and it's disappointing.'"

Embed Marisa Buchanan notes that yesterday, Clark got more press questions about how Kerry may threaten Clark's campaign.  Snippets in Clark's "what's a stake speech" pointed to how Clark's message is being massaged to separate him from Kerry.  Going forward, senior campaign staff told Buchanan there will be a more of an emphasis on highlighting Clark's background and how, they say, he lived the life of the people he wants to help.  No direct mention of Kerry there, though, they say.  As for Clark and Kerry's foreign policy experience, Clark aides characterized it as the difference between "talking and acting."

A senior Kerry aide tells embed Becky Diamond the campaign is basically following the same recipe for success as in Iowa.  While "there are small nuance differences, the issues are the same - jobs, health care and education."  The aide went on to say, "the strategy is keep doing what we were doing in Iowa - he's been extremely successful at communicating and he will continue to put one foot in front of the other and fight for every vote."

The Washington Post's Broder considers who, between Kerry, Edwards and Clark, is best positioned to challenge Dean for the lead in the state.  Another Post story lays out how Dean is still financially the best off.

Is the Granite State now a must-win for a candidate seemingly without must-win states?  The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein on Dean: "after his collapse in Iowa, Dean faces a situation his supporters could not have imagined a few weeks ago: Win in New Hampshire or accelerate a downward spiral that could unravel his campaign."

After running ahead for the past six months, embed Felix Schein notes, Dean started Tuesday running behind, struggling to find his rhythm, toying with his message and softening his image.  Clearly surprised by the degree of Monday's loss and stunned by its failure to capture what many believed was a natural base of support -- anti-war, educated and urban voters -- the Dean campaign has been forced to rewrite its playbook. 

Of particular interest to the campaign: working to appear more presidential in order to increase Dean's appeal to moderates, independents and women, all of whom the campaign failed to mobilize on Monday in Iowa.  To that end, Dean put behind him Monday's "concession" speech by toning down his rhetoric, but he also moved quickly to focus on his record of achievement in Vermont.  Placing less of an emphasis on the war and the perceived failures of his opponent's, Dean highlighted instead his accomplishments in health care, the environment and fiscal responsibility.  A campaign spokesman said two themes will emerge over the next few days: a focus on "real results," and doing what's right even when it's not popular (opposing the war in Iraq, No Child Left Behind, and tax cuts).  To hear campaign manager Joe Trippi say it, Kerry has been "giving Howard Dean's" speech, and now Trippi is eager to take it back.

Dean also made two changes to his image, Schein adds.  Not only did he sound more subdued, but he also lost the sweaters he wore in Iowa and moved back behind a podium with notes.  Schein notes that some may notice the inconsistencies, and that many of the voters who come to see Dean do so to hear some of the very rhetoric he is now abandoning.  Also, by highlighting policy rather than personality, Dean runs the risk of sounding like the other candidates.  Neither his base of support nor most of the undecided informally polled in the street say they like Dean for his record.  They are instead drawn by Dean's "tell it like it is," anti-Washington message.

Consider Dean's SOTU reax: ""The President's speech underscored the need for replacing him with a proven, experienced leader, one who has balanced budgets and made tough decisions, and who stands up for the truth and what is right."

Schein points out, though, that Dean's organization in New Hampshire is far better than that in Iowa.

The Washington Post: "Dean's strategy shift, the second in as many weeks, comes as the onetime front-runner is fighting to regain momentum.  A loss in New Hampshire could signal the beginning of the end of a campaign that only weeks ago seemed almost invincible, Democratic strategists say, though Dean has vowed to stay in the race until the end of the primaries."

"Dean adopted a more businesslike approach one day after he shocked many Democrats by storming onto the stage in Iowa with arms flailing and face reddening to fire up a huge crowd of younger supporters...  Videotape of the appearance was replayed frequently on television Tuesday."

"Dean plans to use his huge fundraising advantage to dominate the airwaves in the final week and blend back into the field of five candidates competing hard to win here."

The Union Leader reports Lieberman vowed not to drop out of the race even if he finishes below third on Tuesday. 

South Carolina (2/3)
In a bid to defend "his" turf, embed Dugald McConnell writes, Edwards is making a quick stop in South Carolina today to show the flag and take a victory lap after his strong Iowa showing.  Edwards is counting on a win in South Carolina (which, we'd note, he has called his must-win state previously) and a strong showing in Oklahoma to demonstrate his ability to win in the South and middle America, a claim he often makes in front of his audiences.

"Organization is how John Kerry pulled off his Iowa win Monday night," says The State.   "But organization is just what Kerry lacks in South Carolina, a state whose first-in-the-South Democratic primary could clinch the race for the presidential nomination.  Kerry, who weakened his South Carolina campaign to strengthen his forces in Iowa, already has begun rebuilding here.   The two staff members the Kerry campaign sent to the caucuses are already on their way back, and the campaign is signing up as many volunteers as they can..."

"But other candidates - Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Howard Dean in particular - can boast more volunteers, more staff, and more endorsements here than Kerry."  The story outlines each candidate's strength on the ground.

Sharpton is focused on one state right now, embed Tom Llamas writes for MSNBC.com, and that's South Carolina.  And his strategy is simple: get the African-American vote.  Two things happened last week to help him reach this goal: Carol Moseley Braun dropped out, and the Rev. Jesse Jackson decided against endorsing any candidate before the primary.

Missouri (2/3)
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch gives Gephardt a brief bio.

The remaining candidates are scrambling to make a mark in the now up-for-grabs state.  The St. Louis Post-Dispatch says, "[l]iterally overnight, Missouri's 88 Democratic delegates - the largest bloc at stake among the states holding primaries or caucuses on Feb. 3 - have been transformed.  Once ignored because they were deemed a lock for Gephardt, Missouri's delegates are now a hot commodity."

"Ad executives at KTVI (Channel 2) and KSDK (Channel 5) reported getting inquiries Tuesday from the Kerry, Dean and Edwards campaigns about TV ad rates.  'We're anticipating some ad buys today,' said KSDK national sales manager Suellen Riggin."  And, "Gov. Bob Holden - who's among the state's 14 'superdelegates' - took a phone call from Clark."

Oklahoma (2/3)
The Lieberman campaign has challenged Kerry to set up a fledgling operation in Oklahoma, with a list of "ten things that the Kerry campaign might want to know about Oklahoma once they decide to set up shop here," including, "Oklahoma's nickname is the Sooner State. During the late 1800s, land runs were held in what is now Oklahoma. The movie, Far and Away, with Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman was about one of these land runs."

More 2004 notes (D)
The AP looks at the Iowa victors' stepped-up fundraising since Monday.  "Kerry challenged donors to help him raise $365,000 over the Internet on Tuesday - marking the 365 days left before the 2005 inauguration - and collected roughly $300,000 by late afternoon."  The Edwards campaign has told embed Dugald McConnell they raised $250,000 online post-Iowa.  "Dean told donors Tuesday that he needs their help more than ever: 'We must raise $1,000,000 by next Tuesday's primary,' Dean wrote."

"Spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter declined to say how much cash the Kerry campaign had on hand, but said Kerry's December loans are expected to see the Massachusetts senator through the Feb. 3 primaries before he will have to decide whether to put more of his own money into the race."

The AP, among others, says organized labor is looking inward after its candidates lost in Iowa.

• Tuesday, January 20, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi and Michelle Jaconi
President Bush delivers the State of the Union address in the House chamber at 9:01 pm, capping off a day of nonstop coverage of his aspiring Democratic opponents.  All Democratic presidential candidates but Sharpton and the departing Gephardt are in next-up New Hampshire, where they will spend tonight attacking the President but the rest of the week going after each other. 

Iowa winner Kerry hops from rally to rally, watches the SOTU with a New Hampshire family, then does TV.  Iowa runner-up Edwards has two events this morning and is currently scheduled to be down tonight.  Third-placer Dean does two town halls, then watches the SOTU in private.  Clark, who skipped Iowa, addresses staff and supporters about "what's at stake in the election" at 10:30 am in Manchester, and does a town hall tonight in which he and the audience will watch the SOTU, then Clark will respond and do Q&A with the attendees.  Lieberman, who skipped Iowa, has events all day and watches the SOTU in New York tonight.

On his Iowa loss, Dean asserts his message got drowned out by negative attacks and press scrutiny, and that his message actually won.  "Howard Dean's message won," said Dean communications director Tricia Enright, pointing to surveys showing an overwhelming majority of caucusgoers opposed the war in Iraq.  But some of his rivals say his loss was a failure of message, not organization. 

The AP: "Late-deciding voters turned away from mistake-prone Dean, and his signature position in opposition to the Iraq war did not seem to resonate."  The New York Times: "the endorsements from [Harkin; Gore;] two of the nation's largest unions; and 35 members of Congress seemed to complicate Dr. Dean's message more than help spread it.  His own gaffs - insulting fellow party members as Republicans, acknowledging he had a foreign-policy hole to plug in his résumé, promising to appeal to Southerners who identify with the Confederate flag - were grist for his opponents."

Brace yourselves for a potentially long nominating contest.  The Dean campaign says it has "just begun to fight," especially considering that it has more money than its rivals, and that it has already laid the foundation to compete well in the remaining contests.  As Dean said in his energized/angry (depending on your interpretation) speech: "We will not give up in New Hampshire...  We will not give up in South Carolina.  In Arizona, or in New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan" -- and so on.  "We will not quit now or never."

The Washington Times: "Dean's failure to capitalize on his front-runner status in last night's Iowa caucuses shows how divided and uncertain the Democrats are about who their candidate should be, setting the stage for a longer-than-expected nomination battle."

Gephardt formally exits the presidential race at a 2:00 pm ET press conference at America's Center in St. Louis.  MSNBC covers live.  The AP notes how the planned speech will mark "the end of a career that took Gephardt to the heights of Democratic politics -- but left him without either of the two positions he sought, the presidency and speaker of the House."

Gephardt's departure leaves a void in the Democratic field on trade and protectionism, and also deprives it of a longstanding voice of support for Social Security and Medicare.  On a strategic level, Gephardt was never expected to be much of a factor in New Hampshire -- he never polled well there and did not spend much time campaigning there.  However, he was expected to do well in South Carolina due to his support from influential African-American Rep. Jim Clyburn (D), whose support may now be up for grabs.

The Columbia, SC State notes Kerry has some work to do in South Carolina (and, we'd note, other February 3 states): "Kerry's from-the-ashes victory in Iowa Monday night means the Massachusetts senator has two weeks to regrow a South Carolina campaign that has vanished...  He's the only major candidate not to run advertising here, the only one without full-time media staff, and he's endured the defection of some key supporters."

Also: a Gephardt exit means Missouri, also a February 3 state, is now up for grabs.  No other candidate has visibly invested many resources there.  Missouri has more delegates at stake than any other state of all the contests up through February 3. 

In a sense, the Iowa caucus became a primary: a lot of late-deciding voters and switchers and a big turnout helped the candidates with momentum beat those who relied upon field organization. 

Electability did become a top issue for caucusgoers.  The Des Moines Register's Yepsen on Iowa Democrats: "After a months-long love affair with Howard Dean, they opted for John Kerry and John Edwards - and reconfigured the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in the process.  They also rewrote some of the conventional wisdoms about caucus campaigning...  Kerry and Edwards won big - after languishing for months.  Dean and Dick Gephardt lost big - after enjoying front-runner status for months.  As a result, Iowa continued its tradition of winnowing the field of presidential candidates."

The Boston Globe's Canellos says that in New Hampshire, "neither Kerry nor former Vermont governor Howard Dean is a sure bet to win.  [Edwards], whose campaign has barely registered in New Hampshire, will get a new look based on his second-place showing in Iowa.  And those candidates who just campaigned through near-zero temperatures in Iowa will confront a bracing reality of a different sort in New Hampshire: ...Clark has spent weeks boosting his effort in the Granite State.  In the final analysis, the Iowa caucuses may actually have ended up boosting more candidates than they knocked down."

SOTU (1/20)
The new Washington Post/ABC poll finds, "Bush continues to enjoy a huge advantage over Democrats on matters of national security, besting them by two to one in the fight against terrorism and by nearly as broad a margin on his handling of the conflict in Iraq.  But while Bush retains the support of nearly six in 10 Americans, the public believes Democrats would do a better job on a full range of domestic issues, such as the economy, prescription drugs for the elderly, health insurance, Medicare, the budget deficit, immigration and taxes.  And Bush has lost the advantage on education policy he once enjoyed."

"As a result, Bush finds himself in a statistical dead heat with the opposition nine months before the election.  When matched against a generic Democratic presidential candidate... Bush narrowly wins, 48 percent to 46 percent.  On the question of who is trusted to handle the nation's major problems, Bush is roughly even with Democrats, 45 percent to 44 percent -- down from an 18-point advantage Bush enjoyed nine months ago."

Also: "More Americans want Bush to discuss domestic programs (40 percent) than want to hear him discuss the campaign against terrorism (15)."

The Washington Times says "President Bush will call on Congress to make his tax cuts permanent in tonight's State of the Union address, a move that Democrats charge actually amounts to a brand-new, $1 trillion tax cut," and leads with a quote from a Dean spokesperson.  "But the White House insists the extra $1 trillion does not constitute a new tax cut.  In fact, Bush aides portray the initiative as a way to prevent a tax increase."

"Democrats say Mr. Bush is trying to have it both ways by waiting until 2004 to push for a measure that would have doomed the tax cut of 2003.  Because most of the Democratic candidates opposed last year's cut, they also oppose making it permanent."

The Wall Street Journal editorial page hails the SOTU by calling on Bush to veto the omnibus spending bill: "President Bush can claim credit for a rebounding economy spurred by two rounds of tax cuts.  He can take further credit for pushing those cuts despite opposition from the deficit hand-wringers...  But if the gap between revenues and outlays is of small concern in any single year -- and especially during recession and war -- it does not follow that there should be no worry over rapidly rising levels of federal spending.  The much delayed omnibus appropriations bill for 2004, scheduled for a vote in the Senate this afternoon, looks set to cap the first term of the most profligate Administration since the 1960s."

The Democratic National Committee touts its targeted specialty press effort around the SOTU, including what they say is the first-ever Spanish-language response, featuring New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.  Telemundo also will air a live Q&A with Rep. Bob Menendez after Bush's speech. 

Gephardt
Embed Priya David reports the Gephardt campaign says they've known for a couple days now that their support has been unraveling, and while they put a brave face on it, they never expected anything like the returns they saw tonight.  The high turnout didn't help them, but the campaign quickly acknowledges that even with a low turnout, they couldn't have won.  Their highly touted union support crumbled, with Edwards ultimately winning labor households.  They admit the Gephardt and Dean attacks hurt each other.

Gephardt arrived at the campaign HQ once the results started coming in, David says, and stayed in a private room before coming downstairs to speak to supporters.  The crowd was not large -- perhaps 100 people apart from media.  With tears in his eyes and his family flanking him on stage, Gephardt thanked his family and friends, supporters and staff.  He pledged his support for the eventual Democratic nominee.  He took no questions from the press.  He then traveled with his family to St. Louis, rather than with the press corps.  Before Gephardt came down and spoke to his supporters, he had a private meeting with his senior staff and finance people.  One staffer told David that he talked about how he often quotes Martin Luther King, and that now he wanted to quote him by saying, "Free at last!"

The Democratic presidential race
Where to begin?  We'll start with the New York Times on the upending of all the media conventional wisdom: the theory of a Dean-Gephardt race and other pieces of CW "espoused on television and radio, in newspapers and magazines, were incinerated Monday night, as political punditry went into a frenzied recalculation of voter sentiment that was certain to reset the tone of the coverage for the race as it heads to New Hampshire..."

...then move on to the stumbling frontrunner.  The Wall Street Journal: "For Mr. Dean, the most immediate question is whether he can recover with a victory in New Hampshire, where he has built a devoted following, especially among young liberal voters, that his strategists believe can withstand early setbacks.  The candidate himself reacted to his drubbing by attempting to rally his backers with a display of defiance...  Clearly, the defeat threw into doubt his status as the front-runner.  The entrance polls showed that Mr. Kerry drew more caucus participants of all age groups and among Iowans who identified themselves as liberal."

"Mr. Dean did best among Iowans who said the Iraq war was their top concern.  Entrance polls showed the war was the top concern of just 14% of those who turned out.  By contrast, 29% cited the economy and jobs as their top concern and 28% cited health care and Medicare.  The survey showed Mr. Kerry outpaced Mr. Dean among Iowans who opposed the war but didn't consider it their top concern."

"Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi ascribed the defeat to the muffling of the former physician's message of challenging the Democratic establishment and shaking up Washington.  Instead, he explained, Mr. Dean's campaign made the mistake of responding to a barrage of attacks from Democratic rivals and issued raised by critical press coverage."

In the Val Air Ballroom in West Des Moines last night, the Dean campaign, from Dean on down, was -- oddly -- repeating Kerry's message about there being "three tickets out of Iowa" as they tried to explain their third-place finish.  Dean told supporters, "You got our ticket punched out [to] New Hampshire."  Sen. Tom Harkin: "Iowa historically punches three tickets out of this state, and we are [one of] the tickets."  Campaign manager Joe Trippi: "In the end, you get three tickets from the state."

A Kerry e-mail fundraising solicitation sent out last night: "There were three tickets out of Iowa - and we won the gold...  Frontrunner Howard Dean had it all.  He had the endorsements of Al Gore, Bill Bradley, and Tom Harkin.  He had a record $41 million raised in the off-year.  He had a 20-point lead in Iowa and a 35-point lead in New Hampshire.  He should have beaten every other candidate by a mile -- but he didn't."

Just after the race was called, embed Becky Diamond reports, the Kerry campaign invited the small group of "embedded" reporters up to Kerry's private suite.  Diamond asked Kerry how he was feeling and he said, "I'm the comeback Kerry."  Kerry sat with his wife and two daughters, at times holding his wife's hand for the interview.  He said Iowans gave America a lesson in democracy.  He said he had talked to Gephardt, Dean, and Edwards; he called Gephardt.  He said he congratulated Edwards, telling the reporters, "He achieved a lot."  He said that Dean was pleasant -- they exchanged pleasantries.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that per Teresa Heinz Kerry, when the good news arrived, Kerry was in the bathroom getting ready.  Heinz Kerry went in and told him he had won while he had a full face of shaving cream and was wearing a towel.

On the coming fight in New Hampshire, a senior Kerry aide told Diamond, "General Clark realizes he's going to be playing with the big boys now."  Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter said the win in Iowa will translate into a bounce in fundraising.  Asked about the February 3 states, Cutter said, "the race through Iowa and New Hampshire is different from February 3 - then it becomes a tarmac race."

On the night's other winner, Edwards, per embed Dugald McConnell: "The point of this is, we're excited about tonight, Lieberman and Clark decided they couldn't compete here.  When they withdrew, they were at the same point I was.  And I stayed and fought.  This is the kind of result I've had my whole life."  McConnell says Edwards will be in New Hampshire all but one day before the primary.  Asked by reporters about Clark, Edwards noted that Clark has never campaigned for office before, or "won a single vote."  The two are now rivals in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. 

Several Edwards staffers told McConnell that fundraising was up over the past week, and Elizabeth Edwards said online contributors had overloaded the server.

The Wall Street Journal: "The campaigns of Sens. Kerry and Edwards clearly expect to capitalize on their showings with a surge of new donations allowing them to compete with the large war chest of Mr. Dean."

While the upcoming primary calendars hold challenges very different than those of Iowa, the Los Angeles Times' Brownstein writes that both Kerry and Edwards have reasons to be confident as they look forward, for "the breadth of support they showed could be a powerful asset as the race advances into states that represent different elements of the Democratic Party.  In New Hampshire next Tuesday, the candidates will confront an electorate dominated by well-educated, socially liberal voters.  In several of the key states that follow on Feb. 3 - such as South Carolina and Oklahoma - blue-collar voters are likely to cast a majority of the votes."

The New York Times notes, however, that "Dr. Dean still has more money than any rival, a strong operation in New Hampshire, which votes next week, and legions of supporters who are sure to join him in fighting back."  And reminds us that "the two states have chosen different winners in all but 3 of the 13 competitive nominating contests since 1972."

The Washington Post's post-caucus analysis suggests the nominating contest could be a long one: "Iowa Democrats dealt a serious blow to the once front-running campaign of Howard Dean here Monday night, and to predictions that the Democratic presidential race might end as quickly as it began.  With Sen. John F. Kerry's (D-Mass.) big victory, the party faces an open and potentially protracted contest to find a nominee to challenge President Bush in the fall...  Organizational prowess, considered the hallmark of the caucus process here, proved no match for the messages and momentum that built behind the candidacies of Kerry and" Edwards.

The Washington Post reports that "people close to Kerry have acknowledged that the battle is likely to become nastier over the coming week, in part because New Englanders are more accustomed to the 'rough and tumble' of politics than Iowans."

Embed Marisa Buchanan notes Clark's mood, according to communications director Matt Bennett, is "really good."  The Clark campaign had already started a squabble about releasing records with the Kerry campaign.  Clark even joined in last night, noting the difference in military ranking: Clark on Larry King Live and again at his press conference noted that Kerry had been only a lieutenant in the Navy and he a four-star general in the Army.  As for his longstanding claim that it's a two-person race between himself and Dean, Clark said, "That's really up to Howard Dean and what's happened in Iowa.  I really don't know what to call it now." 

Will Clark go negative?  Buchanan says he wouldn't make any promises either way.  Clark: "I'm going to do everything I can to be very positive and stay on the message that I think is important to New Hampshire."  He added, "I'm not going to attack other candidates, there's no reason to."  He answered a question on what distinguished him from Kerry with this: "That's really gonna be up to the voters to determine that.  But I can tell you a couple things about myself.  I've never run for elective office, I'm a person who spent his lifetime in public service in uniform until the last three years.  I've had positions where I've actually been accountable, I've actually had to lay out tasks and jobs and get them done.  I've worked at the highest levels of government.  I've worked with heads of state abroad..."

The Wall Street Journal: "Mr. Clark is betting that this year's unusually tight primary calendar, which quickly takes the nomination race to other parts of the country, will create a new dynamic.  He is counting on finishing strong enough in New Hampshire to propel him into the seven state contests held a week later, Feb. 3.  Those votes include culturally conservative states such as South Carolina and Oklahoma, where voters could favor Mr. Clark's Southern military profile.  Mr. Clark has invested heavily in those states."

Amidst the deck-reshuffling, Kucinich may have a new target.  Embed Karin Caifa gets Kucinich on Kerry: "I think it would be a faulty analysis to in any way describe the success of Senator Kerry with support for the war.  I think it would be a huge mistake to do that.  As a matter of fact I will tell you that I intend to base my campaign from here to the convention on the United States getting out of Iraq and that my candidacy will continue to provide the American people in the other 49 states and territories with an alternative candidate who says it's time to go to the U.N. and bring in U.N. peacekeepers and bring the U.S. troops home."

Caifa suggests the deal cut between Kucinich and Edwards to swap supporters should one of them not break the threshold was perhaps the only way Kucinich was going to make headlines on caucus day, and that Kucinich describes Edwards as a friend.  Some who planned to caucus for Kucinich were perplexed by the deal.  Though precinct captains were informed of the deal Sunday, word had not spread to everyone.  Kucinich told Caifa that the deal was in the works for a few weeks prior to the caucuses.

Embed Dionne Scott reports Lieberman seemed energized by the results of the Iowa race, repeating the phrase, "Iowa's over.  New Hampshire is a whole new ballgame."  Scott says Lieberman yesterday veered away from criticizing Dean or Clark, instead pushing the idea that he's the candidate who can beat Bush and laying out the reasons why: "They can't call me weak on defense...  They can't call me a tax and spend liberal...  And just let them try to drive a wedge on values."  Lieberman yesterday claimed the Manchester Union-Leader endorsement.  He also was uncharacteristically critical of Bush personally, Scott says, insulting the President's intellect when explaining his own strength on defense: "I was fighting Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden probably before George Bush knew how to pronounce their names, you know?"  Spokesperson Jano Cabrera says the stump speech is Lieberman's "closing argument" for New Hampshire voters who can be expected to look beyond the primary to the general election.

The South Carolina Democratic party chairman sent out a pleased-sounding release noting the state party will use the same tech team to report out its primary results that the Iowa Democrats used.  The state party hosts a Democratic presidential debate to be aired on MSNBC and moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw on January 29.

Embed Tom Llamas reports Sharpton yesterday announced a 24-hour bus tour that will take him through South Carolina on the eve of the primary.  "I'm going to start at the slave market in Charleston because I want to show from the slave market, where we first came to this country in South Carolina being sold, we are now running for President of the United States so that no people would be sold again," said Sharpton.  "It will be the greatest story in the world for those that came as channeled property to end up deciding who would be the President of the United States in 2004."

• Monday, January 19, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
Des Moines -- Muddled as the battle for Iowa may feel to frustrated political reporters searching for certainty and fixating on polls that may or may not prove predictive, Gephardt claims a unique spotlight.

This isn't the mano-a-mano contest the Gephardt campaign touted just weeks ago in their efforts to cast him as the alternative to Dean, but the stakes remain just as high.  Gephardt must, per his own campaign, win Iowa.  Technically, it's debatable whether he could place a close second and go on; after all, his home state of Missouri and its cache of delegates, the largest of any state through February 3, probably awaits him.  But he needs to win the perception game in Iowa in order to keep money flowing in.

A Gephardt solicitation to supporters yesterday: "Polls show that I am the strongest candidate to beat George Bush in November in the battleground states in the Midwest, and tomorrow night my campaign will demonstrate our strength in this race with a victory in Iowa."

Gephardt's schedule suggests he feels the weight of this day: He has just one event, along with a bunch of TV appearances.  For the rest of the day he will make calls, try to rest, and have dinner with his family, per embed Priya David.  The Washington Post observes how he has gotten sentimental on the trail.

Embed Becky Diamond reports Kerry has lost his voice and will send surrogates to his first three events today.  Diamond says that for the first time yesterday, Kerry ended an event early by half an hour, and his stump speech was approximately 15 minutes as opposed to 20 or 25. 

Most campaigns estimate that turnout will approach or exceed the 125,000 from 1988, and that between 30,000 and 40,000 votes will win the night.  Keep in mind that the campaigns are basing that expectation on their awareness of their own hard counts and those of others, plus turnout for recent Democratic primaries.  You may hear some predict turnouts of around 150,000 or even more.  If turnout somehow reaches that level, the Dean and Gephardt campaigns both believe it would be a reflection of momentum for Kerry and Edwards.

Although polls aren't a reliable measure of caucus-night support, the 11th-hour shift in public opinion in favor of Kerry and Edwards suggests a weariness with negative campaigning, with Dean's angry rhetoric, and with the race in general.  The shift may also suggest that people have hit a moment of reflection when they try to imagine the candidates as President of the United States. 

Organization is most of the ballgame, but buzz and momentum count -- for how much, we'll find out tonight.  In an effort to lower expectations, Kerry aides say their organization is smaller than Dean's or Gephardt's, and that they don't have the resources to identify and organize these late-coming supporters.  Edwards has the same issue.

Diamond says of the Kerry team, "This campaign is nervous as hell about expectations.  While Kerry is clearly buoyed by the polls, the operatives would prefer them to show a little less surge.  On the record, the campaign insists 'there are three tickets out of Iowa.'  It's so yesterday's news," because of the polls.  Diamond talked with Kerry state director John Norris about the race and asked if he thought there is a chance Kerry could win.  He said, "I wish I knew the answer to that."  He told Diamond, "momentum has always been important and is critical to our success here...  I do think it will come down to organization in the end... because of how tight the race is and that has me nervous because of the institutional forces Dean and Gephardt have with labor that we do not have."  He went on to say, "John Kerry has a lot of support from members of organized labor but not the employees, lists and phone banks of labor organizations."

If the results are a muddle, Dean is hurt to the extent that his widely touted organization failed to produce a clear win.  But there's an upside for him: He still has the most money and can last the longest, so anytime he can get through a contest or spate of contests and have them be a wash, it's exactly that for him -- a wash.  The other campaigns currently aren't keeping a fundraising pace to go the distance to March 2, except for Clark and possibly Kerry, who is self-funding.  But Kerry doesn't have a clear path laid out beyond New Hampshire; he can't currently claim an edge in any February 3 state.

David Yepsen: "As many as three winners in Iowa tonight?  It's possible, and their organizations will be key to it all."

The Wall Street Journal: "Dean's superior organization and unsurpassed campaign treasury could still help him salvage a first-place showing in the unpredictable caucuses.  But Iowa already has changed the race by denting the aura of inevitability that once surrounded the former Vermont governor.  Signs that his hard-edged, antiwar message is hitting a ceiling have breathed new life into the campaigns of his challengers as they turn their focus toward the primary contests that lie beyond" Iowa.

Dean may win tonight, Bob Novak says, but "talk of Dean roaring out of Iowa into New Hampshire and clinching the nomination by the end of January has ended."

Another Journal story notes how for Dean, the competitive race in Iowa "has delayed a turn toward the political center, where he has spent most of his career and from which he would need to run if he became the party's nominee.  That has left some establishment Democrats fretting that he has painted himself into a liberal corner."

Per embed Priya David, Gephardt campaign manager Steve Murphy said the campaign has a hard-count number that will yield a win based on a turnout of about 120,000.   Anything much above that, and it gets iffy.  According to another senior campaign staffer, that's because a larger turnout like that would be based on a groundswell for Kerry and possibly Edwards, which the Gephardt campaign can't beat.  One of their hardest problems to shake, the staffer went on to say, has been the perception of Gephardt as "yesterday's news." If he wins Iowa, the staffer contends that problem will go away.  When asked if Gephardt's absence from the state hurt him over the past couple weeks, this staffer says no, it wasn't Gephardt's travel -- but that you could legitimately argue the tone of his recent speech worked against him.  It was a final countdown speech, but of the five pages, one and a half were focused on tearing Dean apart.  The staffer shared that while this may have worked against Gephardt, there was little the campaign felt they could do other than to play out their hand, saying that if they'd just gone positive, their voice would have been lost amidst Kerry and Edwards -- that they had to strike at Dean.

So what happens after Iowa?  Gephardt steadfastly continues to say he'll win, David says, and the campaign says they'll keep going, even if Gephardt doesn't place first in Iowa.  Murphy said they're going on the air with ads next week in South Carolina and they're doing radio and mail in Delaware next week; they're already on the air in Michigan, with Oklahoma soon to come, and have a presence in New Mexico.

As for the two candidates skipping Iowa, Clark tonight will make phone calls from his Manchester HQ as well as do Larry King Live, embed Marisa Buchanan reports.  He will hold a press conference afterward to respond to the Iowa results at the Manchester HQ. 

Lieberman flies around New Hampshire on a charter.  Embed Dionne Scott notes Lieberman has banked on Dean winning Iowa, effectively diminishing Gephardt and Kerry and allowing Lieberman to emerge as the alternative candidate to Dean. But as of late, Lieberman has had to fight for that slot with Clark, and now, with Iowa potentially being more of a muddle than previously thought and Dean slipping a bit in New Hampshire, Lieberman's game plan may prove to be useless.  When asked what happens if Kerry comes barreling out of Iowa into New Hampshire, or if Dean emerges without a clear win, Lieberman said he wasn't going to deal in hypotheticals, but that he remains optimistic: "The race could have a totally different complexion to it after Monday.  We don't know.  It's totally up for grabs, and particularly in the unique context of the caucus.  But then the second is... and we also obviously don't know what affect that will have on New Hampshire. You know they're fairly... historically they tend to want to make a statement."

Republicans caucus in Iowa today, too, and a slew of GOP luminaries are in the state to work a positive message about President Bush into the story.  The Washington Post notes today's visits by Giuliani, Matalin, Mehlman, et al.  The Chicago Tribune: "Ken Mehlman, campaign manager for the president's re-election bid, said the move is an attempt to energize local Republicans who have been watching Democrats vilify Bush on the stump."

The Washington Times reports, "President Bush's political strategists... have begun to prepare for the growing possibility that Mr. Dean might not win the Democratic nomination.  Although Bush officials still regard the former Vermont governor as the likely nominee, the race has become tight in Iowa and New Hampshire.  That has led them to spend more time on contingency plans for the emergence of an alternative to Mr. Dean.  Those alternatives include" Kerry, Gephardt, Clark and Edwards. 

"Bush strategists pointed out that every day the Democrats continue to slog it out is another day the president can postpone his entry into the political fray."

One more Bush-Cheney note on Cheney's reemergence.  USA Today looks at Cheney's return to the campaign trail -- and to the press: "Cheney prefers to wield his power in private, but he is gingerly returning to the spotlight as he embarks on what he insists is his last campaign.  Reporters were invited to travel with him last week on the West Coast.  He gave his first newspaper interviews in two years.  Politics is behind his emergence: Bush strategists believe it's time for Cheney to move from undisclosed secure locations to the front lines of the campaign, and a little image repair is in order."

The Los Angeles Times: "Cheney is emerging to take on an increasingly public role - partly as emissary to the party's conservative base and partly to argue before a wider audience that the Bush administration has the wisdom and experience to navigate an increasingly dangerous world."

In a separate article, the Times says Cheney called former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill "a big disappointment," in response to O'Neill's recent critiques of the Administration.  "'I was a big advocate of his, without question.  And it's turned out to be a big disappointment,' Cheney said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times and USA Today.  'It's too bad.  I wish it hadn't turned out that way.'"

Iowa (1/19)
The New York Times notes in its "history of" that "'Caucus' is an Algonquin Indian word meaning elder, and Iowa's system dates to its statehood, in 1846."

The AP: "By the numbers, Iowa's caucuses offered scant reward - first claim in a fight over 45 national convention delegates out of 4,322 who will attend next summer's national convention."

The Des Moines Register: "Combined, the eight... have spent more than a year campaigning throughout Iowa, flipping pancakes and flying in helicopters and shaking hands and hands and more hands.  They spent close to $100 per caucus-goer by racking up at least $8.7 million in television advertising, and their staff members pumped many more dollars into the Iowa economy...  Thousands of volunteers poured into the state, raising worries about caucus tampering, and hordes of reporters from as far away as Japan camped out in Des Moines.  Yet after all that time and money and sweat, Iowans are still racked with indecision over whom to choose to challenge President Bush."

The New York Times on yesterday's mad dash: "the candidates returned to the themes that they believed would bring them to victory.  Before Mr. Kerry raised questions about Mr. Edwards's gravitas, Dr. Dean criticized fellow Democrats for supporting the war in Iraq, while Mr. Gephardt told a labor audience that he had battled the free trade treaties his opponents had backed.  Again and again, the candidates pleaded with supporters to vote on Monday.  The intensity of their appeals reflected calculations by all the campaigns that in a race this tight, turnout would be crucial."

(That Kerry-Edwards exchange: During Q&A at an event in Newton, per embed Becky Diamond, a woman asked Kerry to compare himself to Edwards.  Kerry said, "When I came back from Vietnam in 1969, I don't know if John Edwards was out of diapers then.  Well - I'm sure he was out of diapers."  Edwards' response: "I have tremendous respect for Senator Kerry's service to our country in Vietnam.  The truth is in 1969 my family spent a lot of time sitting around the kitchen table trying to figure out how to pay for me to go to college, as so many Iowa families do every day.")

The Chicago Tribune: "While five Democratic presidential hopefuls sprinted across Iowa in a final act of courtship Sunday, the substantive discussions of the 2004 campaign gave way to more practical concerns in this too-close-to-call race: persuading voters to devote at least two hours of their Monday evening to politics...  The Howard Dean campaign even offered free baby-sitting...  For the rivals fighting to a bitter and uncertain end, the test is organization versus momentum."

Embed Felix Schein on Dean's visit with Jimmy Carter the day before the caucus: "For all he said, it was what President Carter didn't say that left a bigger impression.  There wasn't a hint of favoritism, no appeals to Iowa's voters and hardly a mention of Governor Dean's experience or credentials.  All this begs the question, why go to Georgia when things are so close in Iowa and an endorsement is not in the works?  And even here the answer is murky.  According to the Dean campaign, Dean was invited by Carter and scheduling constraints made Sunday the only available date.  For his part, Carter claims Dean asked to come and not visa versa, and moreover that Dean had called to ask whether he could worship with the former President.  No matter which version you buy, it is clear that the Dean campaign believes the visual of Dean and Carter together is worth something.  Carter lends Dean gravitas and credibility, both in the South and in the foreign policy arena.  He also remains a well-respected figure in Iowa, and certainly having the former President refer to Dean as a Christian can't hurt when the campaign swings South.  Another motive for the visit could be the war in Iraq and both men's opposition to it.  The campaign continues to believe this is a the issue in Iowa, both for hardcore supporters and those who may switch at the last minute."

The Boston Herald says "[a]ides said Kerry declined an offer for a visit with former President Carter because he did not want to leave Iowa." 

Schein on Judy Dean's appearance on the trail yesterday: "Nervous and shy, Mrs. Dean spoke at two of the Governor's three rallies in Iowa, saying little but to introduce herself, explain her absence and thank Iowan's for supporting her husband.  Obviously green to the process and seemingly overwhelmed by the support for her husband, Mrs. Dean stood by as Dean gave two of his best stump performances in months and crowds in the upper hundreds went nuts.  It was, even for the politically jaded, a touching and baffling moment at once.  On the eve of the caucuses, it was another clever media stunt by the Dean campaign..."

"The Deans entered both events holding hands, the Governor clearly protective and standing proudly by as she spoke.  Senator Harkin encouraged Mrs. Dean the whole way, even signaling to her to punch it up a bit.  Working the ropeline, Mrs. Dean showed some signs of being a novice, hesitantly shaking hands and handing dozens of items to her husband to sign.  But, after her final appearance, she agreed the whole thing hadn't been too bad."

The New York Sun: "She spoke haltingly for about a minute from a prepared text, which included reminders to 'smile' and 'pause.'"

The Boston Globe's Canellos writes, "For nearly a week, campaign aides have privately hoped for such a moment.  At night in bars, they've expressed frustration that the former governor refused to ask his wife to come to his rescue.  Aware that he had opened their lives to pitiless scrutiny, the aides said, Dean didn't feel he could ask her for more.  On Saturday, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin's wife, Ruth, asked if Judy Dean could come.  The governor relayed the request."

The New York Post: "Dean staffers pooh-poohed the idea that the visit was aimed at softening his pugnacious image before the vote in Iowa, where he is slipping in the polls - especially with women."

Schein also notes that Dean on the stump asked those supporting Kucinich to consider him as their second choice.  But embed Karin Caifa says Kucitizens may not be swayed as a bloc to switch their allegiance to Dean should their own candidate fail to break the 15% threshold.  One supporter drew Kucinich's attention to a flyer being distributed by Iowans for Dean saying, "Only Dean opposed the war from the start," once again drawing the ire of the Kucinich campaign.  "I'm really disappointed with Dr. Dean doing this," said Kucinich upon seeing the flyer. "Maybe flyers like these are the reason his support is dropping so fast here in Iowa."  As one caucusgoer in Iowa City put it, "Kucinich doesn't need to win to win.  People come out for him regardless and they know he's going to lose but they're going to get his platform out there."

Edwards today will do meet-and-greet at a TopValue, a minority-owned business, with state Rep. Wayne Ford to note MLK day.  He also has events in Cedar Rapids and Davenport, but embed Dugald McConnell say not to look for big rallies like the ones this weekend -- all able-bodied staffers and volunteers are assigned to phone banking or door-to-door, focusing on turnout.  According to NBC political analyst/the Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook, "If Edwards takes off [today], it will be spontaneous combustion.  It's not organization."  Organization was not the campaign's strong suit this weekend, McConnell says, when the Senator kept audiences waiting for as long as an hour on all three days, and was introduced by halting speakers in Davenport and Mason City.  But Edwards is not willing to concede a weak organization when it comes to getting out the vote.

The Boston Globe reports that apparently Kerry advisers knew Kerry would surge all along.  "The timing and trajectory of Kerry's surge -- in which he has wooed voters from other campaigns and won first-place status in recent polls -- cannot be tied to any one transformative moment, Kerry's advisers and political analysts say, although there were times along the way that portended an upswing. Edwards, by contrast, enjoyed one clear jolt: The Des Moines Register's Jan. 11 endorsement of his ardently optimistic candidacy..."

A longtime caucus observer enjoys his last round – Des Moines Register

SOTU (1/20)
The New York Times confirms that chosen date, one night after the Iowa caucus, was no coincidence.  "The underlying strategy... was not to steal all the thunder from the Democrats, which even another 'axis of evil' State of the Union address was unlikely to do, but rather to change the subject," said one Republican close to the campaign who "did not want to be named for fear of angering White House officials who insist that there is no political element to Mr. Bush's address - even as Bush campaign officials say the speech will outline the broad themes of the his 2004 campaign."

"Democrats also said Mr. Bush's address would give them an opportunity to remind voters that it was in the State of the Union speech a year ago that Mr. Bush made a case for military action against Iraq because of" WMD.  "White House officials indicated that Mr. Bush would... tell Americans on Tuesday that the decision to go to war was the right one."

In last year's SOTU, the Washington Post writes, Bush "used stark imagery" detailing WMD.  "Now, as the president prepares for this State of the Union address Tuesday, those frightening images of death and destruction have been replaced by a different reality: Few of the many claims made by the administration have been confirmed after months of searching by weapons inspectors."

 
"Within the United States, Bush does not appear to have suffered much political damage from the failure to find weapons..."

The Boston Globe rounds up what some lobbyists are hoping to hear in the speech.

Congress returns (1/20)
The Boston Globe predicts the "election-year session... will probably see few legislative breakthroughs and more of the partisan acrimony that has stalled action on key issues."

New Hampshire (1/27)
The Los Angeles Times says Clark and Lieberman have gotten used to having New Hampshire to themselves, but that's about to change.  "Dean may be the first to arrive.  The former Vermont governor plans to hop a plane as soon as his Iowa fate is known and be on the ground by 2 a.m. Tuesday for a rally on the tarmac at Portsmouth's airport.  The other candidates expect to be campaigning in New Hampshire by midday Tuesday."

The AP gets Clark briefly touching a historical third rail for the Granite State: "Clark said Saturday that one reason New Hampshire property taxes are high is the state has no income or general sales tax...  In a brief interview after his appearance, Clark said he did not intend his remarks as criticism of New Hampshire's tax system, which he said is the responsibility of the state's lawmakers and voters."

"Clark is not the only presidential candidate talking about property taxes...  Dean says President Bush's tax cuts didn't really help the middle class because they were offset by increases in property taxes and the rising cost of health care and college tuition."

As awkward as it was to see Clark stand next to the man who only won Massachusetts in 1972, embed Marisa Buchanan says, it reinforced for Democratic primary voters Clark's partisan ties and opposition to the war.  Clark didn't vote for McGovern in 1972 -- he voted for Nixon.  But add this to Michael Moore's endorsement Saturday, Buchanan notes, and one sees a calculated appeal to the hard core Democrats who are reliable primary voters.

The Manchester Union Leader on George McGovern's endorsement of Clark yesterday: "McGovern, 81, said that Clark was the only candidate advocating a graduated income tax; that is, that those who have higher incomes should pay more in taxes." 

As the Boston Globe puts it: "Just as opponents have started renewing questions about his opposition to the Iraq war and his Democratic credentials... Clark has been collecting endorsements from some of the most partisan, antiwar Democrats in the book."

Buchanan adds that the Kerry campaign is making the most visible effort to attack the Clark campaign in New Hampshire right now.  At an event on Sunday, firefighters for Kerry stood outside a Clark event and Kerry supporters passed out literature.  The Clark campaign was also quick to respond to Kerry's comments from ABC's "This Week."  On their open-government kick, Clark campaign manager Paul Johnson urged Kerry to be as forthcoming as Clark has been in releasing his tax records and lobbying contacts.

• Sunday, January 18, 2004 | 9:45 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
DES MOINES -- Slowly, for a history-adhering press corps, it dawns that longstanding "rules" might be broken.  With the latest polls seeming to at least confirm a tight, four-way race in Iowa if nothing else, the possibility arises that Iowa might not really winnow the field heading into New Hampshire, while skipping Iowa currently is looking like a smart move by Clark. 

The political press corps struggles to square the latest poll results with what is known of the top candidates' organizations in the state.  Per the polls, Kerry and Edwards appear to be benefiting from support of late deciders and switchers, but will those people turn out?  For Kerry, whose campaign has been touting a network of 10,000 veterans, expectations creep upward as he wins the Des Moines Register poll.  Edwards, despite his second-place showing in the poll, still looks like the biggest beneficiary of low expectations because of his smaller field operation.  Gephardt is viewed as having the least wiggle room, needing a top showing.  And questions as to whether Dean's impressive organization will yield equally impressive results are exacerbated by his overall, apparent dip in the polls. 

In Plains, GA this morning, Dean attends church services with Jimmy Carter, then heads back to Iowa.  Dean on the visit, per embed Felix Schein: "The reason I am going to see Jimmy Carter is because it is an extraordinary opportunity to be with somebody I really admire a lot."  Then why now?  "I had very little to do with the arrangements and so I cannot answer those questions.  Today was the day that it worked for everybody. I did not have a hand in making the arrangements."  The Atlanta Journal Constitution.  "Dean's supporters hope his visit to church Sunday with Carter will help the former Vermont governor elsewhere -- especially in Iowa on the eve of the Democratic caucuses...  Dean's willingness to leave Iowa for Plains, even for a few hours, shows the significance he places on being seen with Carter."

Ted Kennedy, who blasts the Bush Administration for its decision to go to war against Iraq in a Washington Post op-ed, campaigns with Kerry in Iowa today.

The New York Times: "In campaign headquarters across this unseasonably warm capital, senior advisers struggled to figure out who was up and who was down, prompting a dizzying volley of attacks.  At the center of those campaign-closing calculations was Dr. Dean,... who in recent days suffered an erosion in his position here and across the nation, according to Democratic officials and Dr. Dean's advisers."

"The challenge to Dr. Dean has come at the same time that General Clark, in New Hampshire, has shown signs of undercutting Dr. Dean's dominance there.  That has forced Dr. Dean to divide much of his time between Iowa and New Hampshire."

In New Hampshire, Kerry gets the Concord Monitor endorsement for being "best prepared to be president."  Embed Becky Diamond says over 30 members of Kerry's family, including his sisters Peggy and Diana, will campaign in Nashua, NH today, going door to door, canvassing neighborhoods and making phone calls in an effort to rally support for Kerry's presidential campaign. 

Whither the Republican National Committee?  In New Hampshire yesterday, controversial filmmaker Michael Moore, introducing Clark at a rally, charged Bush with being a deserter.  Clark stopped short of backing that remark (see below).

The Democratic battle royale occurs against the backdrop of new New York Times/CBS numbers showing Bush within the MOE but two points behind an unnamed Democrat, 43% to 45%. 

The Vice President gives his first interview in recent memory to the Washington Post Style section.

And the Des Moines Register reminds us: "For young Republicans,... the GOP caucuses will symbolize the beginning of their campaign season and serve as a time to get energized about their candidate, President Bush."

ON TV: Gephardt does Meet the Press (airs in Des Moines at 10:00 am CT).  Kerry does This Week (9:30 am CT) and Edwards does Face the Nation (10:30 am CT).

Iowa (1/19)
The Washington Post: "'I'm going to tell you how tight this is,' Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) said in an interview Friday evening.  'Ever been to Pella, Iowa?  There are eight Democrats in Pella, on a good day.  But Dean was there [Monday].  I drove through there today, and Gephardt's bus was there.  If those guys are scouring the hills in Pella, Iowa, for Democrats, this thing is close.  Anybody who tells you how this is going to turn out -- they're crazy.'"

Also: "interviews with voters this week suggest that the power of Iraq as the galvanizing issue has faded in the face of concerns about finding someone who could defeat Bush, and this may explain why Kerry and Edwards have been gaining."

The Los Angeles Times says this has become "a contest unlike any the state has seen: a fight closer, nastier, more costly and more pervasive than previous caucuses.  A casual TV viewer in Des Moines, Iowa's biggest city, was seeing up to 10 campaign ads a day; true couch potatoes faced an onslaught of 25 or more."

The Chicago Tribune: "The tight race triggered an unprecedented political ground war in each of Iowa's 99 counties as thousands of campaign workers blanketed neighborhoods and bombarded Democratic activists with phone calls in the final weekend of campaigning."

Although Iowa historically has winnowed the presidential field, the Los Angeles Times' Brownstein says that might not happen this time.  Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, and Kerry, he writes, "could wake up Tuesday with enough strength and credibility to sustain their campaigns."

The Chicago Tribune looks at concerns that out-of-state Dean supporters might try to participate in the caucuses, something the Dean camp denies will happen.

Sounds like the Dean campaign has heeded the dissatisfied traveling press corps' cries.  Embed Felix Schein says Dean was his old self on Saturday.  Still wearing a sweater and still stumping with Sen. Tom Harkin, Dean turned it on -- at least more than has been seen of late.  And the fun extended to the press bus as well, where Dean made two appearances for the first time ever.  During the second avail, Schein says, Dean took the NBC camera to shoot a minute of the event himself.

Unwilling to hedge or play down expectations, Dean boldly predicted victory in the caucuses, saying, "We are very hopeful that we're going to win here.  Our organization has worked very hard.  Um, they are um, they have done what they have to do and now all they have to do is make sure the people who are committed to us get to the polls and don't get intercepted by you know ugly calls and things like that."

"I don't worry about that.  That's all polls and polls at this point are really meaningless.  Today we're up, yesterday we were down.  Polls at this point can't predict who's going to caucus and who isn't going to."

Asked what would constitute a victory, Dean added, "We want to win the whole thing.  We really do.  We're going to do everything we can to win the whole thing and we're going to work as hard as we possibly can to win the whole thing.  It's all I, it's all you can do.  I believe we can win.  And I believe we will win based on the based on the efforts that are going on to get people out.  It's out of all of our hands.  It's - the people that uh - the people that are now in control are the people who have been supporting this campaign for years, uh two years."

On his sense of fashion, Dean noted, "You know I'm back to my green sweater today.  This is my green sweater.  I have a third one but I didn't wear it because Tom's wearing maroon.  So I thought if I wore maroon, that would - my fashion consultant told me that was absolutely not the way to go."

One other note: Dean likes the embeds.  He noted that he thinks the technology is great.  "It's a lot less intrusive and I think it's fantastic."

Embed Priya David reports Gephardt continues to say the polls don't matter -- and that the only poll that matters is the one on Monday night.  The campaign projects a certainty that they will win.  Gephardt has always said he'll win, refusing to answer that nagging question, "but what if you don't..." -- and his top aides continue to argue their case for a win.  Campaign manager Steve Murphy announced yesterday that the campaign has met their statewide hard-count goal, David says.  They still have some precincts missing the goal, but statewide, they're pleased.  Murphy declined to say what that number is, but said it was based on winning with a turnout of 30% more than has ever been to caucus in the past.  On Kerry, Murphy continues to say that they don't believe Kerry will pull off a first-place win because he lacks viability in the necessary precincts.  However, David writes, they say they've taken note of Kerry's improvement, and have made adjustments.  They've moved more workers to precincts that are strong for Kerry, and increased their hard-count goals there.

David adds that rooms were packed for Gephardt yesterday, 100+, probably indicative of a Monday-Friday work schedule and the fact that many of the stops were in union halls.

Jane Gephardt, still recovering from pneumonia, is back on the trail after more than a week away.

Embed Becky Diamond says Kerry responded yesterday morning to various attacks against him for being anti-agriculture/anti-ethanol: "I regret enormously, and it's obvious that my campaign is moving, because two of the major candidates have chosen in the last two days to engage in a smear effort on my farm policy here in America...  So those farmers who have come here to join me today to make it clear, that I am going to fight to change the whole relationship, the relationship between the bureaucrats in Washington.  And if the other candidates want to defend the USDA and its representation of small farmers, let 'em go ahead and do that..."  Diamond adds that the campaign press secretary handed out three memos -- seven pages -- of material highlighting Kerry's commitment to ethanol and farm issues.  Kerry Iowa spokesperson Laura Capps sent Diamond the Gephardt flyer with an FYI that "negative ads still running on network TV this morning, despite the pledge."

Embed Dugald McConnell says Edwards aides were quick to distribute the Des Moines Register poll showing Edwards in second.  The fine print: he doesn't do as well with those who say they will definitely attend.  Edwards press secretary Jennifer Palmieri: "We knew from our polling that 56% of voters were willing to consider Edwards, and they all broke our way.  A similar thing happened in his [1998] Senate race where 80% of undecideds broke his way.  It takes a while for policy-based stuff to break through."

The Boston Globe:  "Edwards may end up attracting a disproportionate share of those voters who are forced to pick a second choice under the quirky election rules, political specialists and likely caucusgoers said."

McConnell notes Edwards drew his largest crowd yet on Saturday night, where a building official gave a hard count of 670.  Other events on Saturday drew 150-250 people, even in mid-sized towns.  On Sunday, the campaign has again booked a charter for traveling press.  But McConnell adds that a visit to the campaign office was a reminder that GOTV is not necessarily Edwards' strong suit.  The campaign has many precincts without a captain, and Edwards himself said Gephardt and Dean have an advantage with the unions, and Kerry and Dean have an advantage on money.  The campaign's goals of 500 out-of-state helpers and 50,000 doors to knock on are not in the same league as the others'.

And the campaign's newest ad in Iowa, McConnell writes, is a pleasant scrapbook of Iowa moments and campaign phrases, set to music.  With no spoken words, just phrases on the screen, it's a far cry from the pace and intensity level of more typical final-days ads.

Embed Karin Caifa reports that after basking in the golden sun of the Golden State and turning out crowds in February 3 states New Mexico and Arizona, Kucinich donned winter gear and began a last-minute push in Iowa, despite the race here already being deemed a four-man contest.  Packing too many states into one day can be costly, however, Caifa notes, and for the second weekend in a row Kucinich left some angry Iowans waiting as he drifted further and further behind schedule.  While the candidate was getting held over at the Tri-States Banquet in Dubuque, a group of 50 was waiting for his arrival in Makoqueta.  A handful couldn't stand the hour-15 wait and departed before Kucinich arrived. Stops in Clinton and Davenport also started well behind schedule.  Kucinich seemed to become more energized as the day turned into evening, Caifa says, with his most fiery performance at the end of the day in Davenport, where about 250 folks turned out to hear him speak.

SOTU (1/20)
The New York Times and CBS tested public opinion of some of Bush's previewed SOTU proposals, along with his standing and opinions of his tax cuts.  "Fewer than one in five people said their tax burden had been eased by Mr. Bush, who has made tax cuts the centerpiece of his economic program.   His latest domestic initiatives, unveiled in the run-up to the State of the Union message on Tuesday, got only a lukewarm response, with 58 percent saying that building a permanent space station on the Moon was not worth the risks and costs."

"Moreover, the support Mr. Bush gained after the capture of Saddam Hussein last month has largely dissipated.  His overall approval rating now stands at 50 percent, comparable to President Bill Clinton's 47 percent in January 1996.  Mr. Bush remains a polarizing figure in a sharply divided country, with 9 in 10 Republicans approving of his performance, and only 1 in 4 of the Democrats."

Bush retains a big edge on national security issues.  And: "While the Times poll was a road map for an intensely divided electorate, it also highlighted Mr. Bush's strengths.  His approval rating is highest among those ages 30 to 44; those younger and older are more divided.  Whites approve of his performance by 56 to 41 percent; in contrast, 70 percent of blacks disapprove of the job he is doing, while just 17 percent approve, the poll found."

"He also has a big edge among those who say religion is extremely or very important to them; 56 percent of that group say they approve of Mr. Bush and 39 percent say they disapprove.  His approval rating among men and women is about the same, suggesting he is addressing the historic Republican vulnerability of a gender gap.  And he has a substantial edge among married women."

The head of the Pew poll co-writes a New York Times op-ed leading, "By most measures prospects for George W. Bush's re-election look very good," and closing with, "Yet the numbers, as always, don't tell the full story.  The effects of partisan polarization, for example, are unpredictable, and it is near an all-time high; Democrats disapprove of Mr. Bush almost as much as Republicans disapproved of President Bill Clinton.  What's more, news that seems to be good - like rising approval ratings - doesn't always lead to re-election, while news that seems to be bad - like relatively high unemployment - doesn't necessarily ruin an incumbent's chances.  Just ask Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan."

The Washington Post examines an arguably broken promises of the Administration: changing the tone in Washington.  "[P]artisans on both sides say the tone of political discourse is as bad as ever -- if not worse."

Despite this, or perhaps because of it, "White House plans to use the SOTU "to foster an image of Bush as a wartime visionary who stands above the fray of politics -- the commander in chief, not a candidate," the Post adds in a separate article. 

"Bush officials said they hope to extend that packaging to the early engagements of the campaign after the Democratic nominee is clear.  They said Bush has no plans to hold an event declaring himself a candidate, even after his campaign begins running ads.  President Bill Clinton used the same strategy in 1996."

"The officials said that with the address wedged between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Bush will try to draw a contrast with the Democrats -- sniping at him, and at each other -- by sounding forward-looking and emphasizing national triumphs."

Dean embed Felix Schein got Dean on the upcoming State of the Union: "Well let's look at the facts.  Industrial production was up I think or it was down .1% or up .1%.  We had 1,000 jobs created last month.  We just lost our 500^th American soldier in Iraq.  I think this President has not made us safer.  I think he's hurt middle-class people terribly.  And I think he's a President who's beholden to special interest.  So I guess we have two different views of the union.  It doesn't surprise me that President Bush might look at the union that way but I wish he'd come to Iowa and see how ordinary people see what he's done to us."

New Hampshire (1/27)
Embed Marisa Buchanan notes Michael Moore's dubbing Clark "the most progressive candidate running right now," apart from Kucinich, at a Clark rally in New Hampshire yesterday.  Moore also said in his introduction of Clark that he would love to see a debate between the General and "the deserter," which prompted questions to Clark at the following press avail about whether he feels that the President was a deserter.  Clark: "I am very grateful for the people he [Moore] has brought over to us.  I think he is a man of conscience, he is a man of courage and a tremendously talented person who has done a lot for this country...  I've heard those charges, I don't know if they're established or not, he was never prosecuted for it.  And the issue in this election is can we bring a higher standard of leadership to America?"

More Clark: "I'm not gonna get into the issues with what George W. Bush did or didn't do in the past.  This is about holding the President accountable for his performance of duty as Commander in Chief and President of the United States, that's what the issue is in this election, and who has a better vision to take this country forward.  That's what were going to be talking about."

The Boston Globe says Moore was referring to questions over a "three-month assignment in Alabama with the 187th Tactical Recon Unit in Montgomery" Bush was assigned in which it's alleged that he did not "appear for duty."

The Washington Post notes how a surging Clark has seemed to benefit by bypassing Iowa.

The Manchester Union Leader looks at Dean's New Hampshire strategy once the contest in Iowa is over.  "Dean plans to arrive in New Hampshire Tuesday morning, take a day off, then run non-stop to the primary finish line."

A Kerry campaign e-mail invites supporters to welcome Kerry and rally at the Manchester airport at 6:30 am.

• Saturday, January 17, 2004 | 12:00 p.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
DES MOINES — Barring unforeseen developments, the next three days here will be about one thing — turning out caucusgoers — with the inevitable flip side: attempts to turn off rivals' caucusgoers.

Dean and Gephardt pulled their TV attack ads, and Dean has toned down his rhetoric in an effort to appeal to moderates.  But they ganged up on Kerry yesterday for not supporting some farm subsidies, and the Dean campaign is accusing the Kerry camp of being behind negative phone calls.  (A Kerry aide had presciently said on Thursday night, upon learning of Kerry's lead in the latest polls, "We're going to get killed.")

The New York Times: "Even as he and Dr. Dean declared a truce, Mr. Gephardt's campaign disclosed that it had sent mailings criticizing Mr. Kerry... for voting against a measure to require use of ethanol fuel, made from corn, in 1994.  And Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, campaigning with Dr. Dean, went after Mr. Kerry, without naming him, for proposing in 1996 to eliminate or greatly reduce the size of the Agriculture Department as a means of reducing bureaucratic waste.  Dean aides later sought out reporters to make sure they knew that Mr. Harkin was referring to Mr. Kerry..."

The Des Moines Register reports "experts say delivering support at the caucuses could trump momentum Monday night as the key to victory when Iowans launch the presidential nominating season."  The Chicago Tribune says the four top candidates are dismissing the polls and are instead saying turnout will be the key.  The Los Angeles Times says that of the four, Gephardt may be the only one who can't afford to finish in second place.

The Register also looks at the high stakes for the Iowa Democratic Party in its reporting system.  Remember these are Central times: "The goal of party officials is to be able to report the final tally for the caucuses by 9 or 9:30 p.m.  In the past, results haven't been reported until 11 p.m. or later, Foecke said.  The neighborhood meetings start at 6:30 p.m."

Looking beyond Iowa, don't lose sight of Clark and Lieberman and Lieberman's current one-man battle to tear down Clark while everyone else is fixated on Iowa.  And Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, on TODAY, set a bar for the candidates: that if you haven't won a single contest after February 3, you should "reassess your candidacy."

Iowa (1/19)
With two days to go, the four major candidates seemed to put aside personal attacks yesterday and focused instead on "organizing supporters and winning over undecided Iowans," writes the Washington Post.

Embed Felix Schein notes that Dean's toned-down rhetoric and choice of sweaters over suits is a strategic move designed, as Dean admits, to appeal to more moderate Democrats, especially the ones turned off by the aggressive tactics and harsh language of the weeks gone by.  (Dean: "You know why I am wearing a sweater is because Tom Harkin is wearing a sweater and Tom Harkin doesn't like dressing up in a coat and a tie, and when you have Tom Harkin taking you around you wear what Tom Harkin is more comfortable with.")  And the campaign as a whole is following Dean's lead, pulling the TV ad and working hard to project an image of stability and confidence.  Ignoring the poll numbers and rumors of trouble, aides spent much of the day pointing to a solid grassroots organization and phone calls with positive results, Schein reports.  Efforts also were made to adjust to the growing pains of the past few days, including making Dean available to answer some questions and working to bring more energy to Dean's events. 

Per Schein, Dean remains upbeat, saying he has handed his fate over to supporters and that he remains confident in the organization he had built.  Dean: "Things are going well.  This is all down to the last 72 hours -- it's just who gets their votes out.  I've just been calling around to county chairs and they're pretty optimistic that we're going to win.  It's all who's committed -- whose followers are committed, whose followers are going to go.  This is also about a whole lot of followers that can't be polled."  Senior-level staffers have been doing all they can to fire up the troops and whisper words of support to those who may have doubts.  And volunteers have begun knocking on some of the 200,000 doors they hope to reach by Monday.  Still, Schein says, some organizational problems remain.  The campaign continues to blow photo-ops and media requests, and there is some concern that scheduling and crowd-building is faltering at just the wrong time.

The New York Times echoes Schein's observations with a story on how Dean's approach to the media and his campaign's press relations have changed.  The Boston Globe says "attacks by other Democrats appear to have thrown Dean off his equilibrium . . . The candidate famous for straight talk, has cloistered himself inside a private bus and cut his stump speech in half, ending his long practice of taking audience questions and limiting his conversations with voters to a chance encounter afterward."

Dean on the negative TV ads, per Schein: "We want to keep the message positive.  I think that obviously some of the stuff -- we took down our war ad at the end, just go with a positive message: get to the polls.  I think that's what people want at the end.  That's what we're going to do.  I think in general people like a positive campaign better than they like a negative campaign.  I also think they like a campaign based on hope.  That's what we're delivering, I think."

The Chicago Tribune notes how Dean is increasingly conjuring the spirit of Harry Truman on the trail in Iowa.

Embed Priya David details how the Gephardt campaign pulled their TV ad against Dean, which they now call "negative."  David notes that when the ad went up recently, at the time it was called "comparative."  The campaign says they decided to pull the ad because the Dean campaign pulled their ad against Gephardt.  Gephardt campaign manager Steve Murphy said Dean's ad was backfiring on Dean, causing him to "plummet" in the polls.  On the other hand, Murphy said Gephardt's negative ad was merely in response and hadn't affected his poll numbers at all -- that the campaign was holding steady.  Murphy said they're "relieved" that Dean's pulled his ad because he didn't want the Dean folks to drag them into a "slugfest."

David notes the campaign is heading through counties they've stopped in before -- sometimes at the very same venue, which makes comparison easy -- and the crowds are either the same size as before or smaller.  At a time when other candidates seem to attract crowds in the hundreds, Gephardt's audiences yesterday were only about 30 people all day, except for the final event involving UAW workers, which was attended by at least 150 people.  It had a rally feel to it, David says, and Gephardt was lively.  He does better at night and with large crowds.

The New York Times looks at how Gephardt's stump speech has changed.

Edwards took credit yesterday for the ad war detente, per embed Dugald McConnell.  Edwards told supporters in Council Bluffs: "I have a good news. You and I -- we are already changing America.  Governor Dean and Congressman Gephardt announced today that they are taking down their negative television ads. (Applause)  But there is more we need to do.  I call on Governor Dean, Mr. Gephardt and Senator Kerry to stop their negative mailings."

From McConnell's Edwards interview: "The message is different," said Edwards, acknowledging he changed his stump speech around the holidays, but he said he had no plans to change it going into New Hampshire.  "I go back and forth, depending on how much time I have.  I like to go through the policy, because it adds weight to what I say, but it's hard, because of the time.  You noticed yesterday we were an hour late."

"The Register debate, the events after that, it's just been like a snowball, that's the best way to describe it.  Even in small places, like the event we just had, there's just no way to describe it.  They're, like, everywhere.  It's not in pockets, it's everywhere."

State of the Union (1/20)
The New York Times reports Bush "is expected to propose a health care initiative in his State of the Union address to help the uninsured and the underinsured, White House advisers said on Friday.  It was unclear how much the initiative... would cost at a time when Mr. Bush is under pressure because of a growing budget deficit.  But White House officials have made clear that they do not want to cede the politically potent issue of health care to the Democratic presidential candidates, all of whom have made health care a centerpiece of their campaigns."

"Administration officials said Mr. Bush's address would also call for making billions of dollars in recently enacted tax cuts permanent over the next 10 years.  In addition, the president will again push his longstanding plan to create personal investment accounts for Social Security, the advisers said.  Mr. Bush will open his nationally televised prime-time address with an update on the administration's campaign against terrorism and on national security, his strongest issue against the Democrats.  He will then move into domestic policy."  The paper points out that this is in contrast to last year's address, which "began with domestic policy and ended with foreign policy - but that was because he used the speech to make the case for military action against Iraq..."

The Washington Times says Bush will use the address "as a firm defense of his proposal to loosen immigration laws, issue a 'passionate' plea to make his tax cuts permanent and soberly remind the country that we are still a nation at war...  Mr. Bush will also try to assuage any doubts that the war in Iraq was not justified, while the search for Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction continues to be fruitless."

New Hampshire (1/27)
Embed Dionne Scott says Lieberman is encouraged by the tight four-way race in Iowa because he says it shows what he's been saying all along -- that the race is wide open and voters are beginning to take a second look at the candidates, particularly the frontrunners.  Lieberman said the same is true in New Hampshire and the frontrunner being looked at for a second time there, according to Lieberman, is Clark.

Scott says that yesterday, Lieberman continued telling voters that if they're uneasy with Dean or uncertain about Clark, he's their man.  Scott asked him about Clark's document dump yesterday and Lieberman said, "No matter how many documents he puts out, he can't cover those inconsistencies in a snowstorm of paper.  He's gotta deal with those, tell us where he is and admit that he changed his mind."

Embed Marisa Buchanan gets Clark on his dirt-digging strategist, Chris Lehane, who was featured on the front page of the New York Times yesterday: "I am very proud of the other members of my campaign and we hold each other to a very high standard.  You know this is politics in terms of providing information and that's all we're doing.  He was credited with providing some information that he didn't even provide.  I think Chris Lehane is not only a great researcher and a good man but he's performing a function that every other campaign performs.  I'm not a conventional politician and I'm not engaging in those things.  We're holding are campaign to a higher standard.  We're not attacking people but the campaign does legitimately have a function to provide information.  Information on ourselves based on other people.  That's the way campaigns work."

Buchanan says of Clark's document dump in New Hampshire yesterday that all anybody wanted to know was where his medical records are.  Clark said they would work on gathering them, and proceeded to give the short version: "I'm a disabled vet.  I've had my tonsils out, I've had my appendix out, I had radiation therapy when I was a child on tonsils that caused my thyroid to fail.  I had my thyroid out and... I've been shot...  I'm a pretty experienced consumer of health care."

The Los Angeles Times describes Clark's growing pains, and also his improvement, on the campaign trail.  Clark is being criticized for defending the US Army School of the Americas, which "has trained some of the most notorious criminals of the region and teaches skills that Latin American armies sometimes use against their own citizenry," the Boston Globe says. 

Clark bashed the Bush Administration yesterday on everything from Iraq to its Mars plan, the Manchester Union Leader reports. 

The Union Leader also gets the scoop on the stage assignments for the January 22 ABC/FOX/WMUR debate at St. Anselm College.

Politics and the courts
Most of the Democratic candidates paused yesterday to comment in writing, in person, or both on Bush's recess appointment of Charles Pickering to the federal bench -- with some making the looming MLK holiday connection, some not.  Former Sen. Max Cleland, who the New York Times says "was defeated at the polls little more than a year ago in part because of his vote against the Pickering nomination," is campaigning for Kerry in Iowa this weekend.

The Washington Times notes that "Mr. Bush's decision comes as conservatives nationwide have grown increasingly frustrated with Mr. Bush and Republicans in general over what they see as profligate spending at a time when the Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress.  In particular, conservatives are angry over the recent expansion of Medicare.  Also, many are angry over Mr. Bush's recently announced policy on immigration..."

The Supreme Court refused to hear the Texas Democrats' emergency appeal on the state's redistricting plan, handing the Republicans another victory in that fight, reports the Washington Post.  "The court may still decide to hear an appeal later this year from congressional Democrats, minority groups and others who contend the map promotes the Republicans' electoral chances by breaking up minority communities and submerging them into overwhelmingly conservative, white districts."

But this decision "cleared the way for this year's congressional elections to proceed under the new map," which could allow Republicans to pick up as many as seven seats.

The Los Angeles Times says Vice President Cheney's recent duck-hunting trip with Justice Antonin Scalia -- "just three weeks after the court agreed to take up the vice president's appeal in lawsuits over his handling of the administration's energy task force" -- might raise "doubts about Scalia's ability to judge the case impartially."

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