2010 Election: Cheat Sheet

Harry Hamburg  /  AP

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, right, accompanied by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Va.

House: There are 435 House races. Democrats currently hold a 255-178 advantage over Republicans, with two vacancies (one held by each party). Republicans must net 39 seats to gain control of the chamber. Political analysts Charles E. Cook and Stuart Rothenberg project the GOP to gain 40 to 50 seats. Overall, more than 100 Democratic-held seats and about 20 GOP-held seats are in play.

Senate: There are 37 Senate races. Democrats currently hold a 57-41 advantage in this chamber, with both independents (Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders) caucusing with the Democrats. To win back a majority, Republicans must net 10 seats — a difficult but doable challenge. For this to happen, the GOP must win its sure bets (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana); the two contests where it has the slight edge (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin); the toss ups (Illinois, Colorado, Nevada); two of these four races (California, Connecticut, Washington state, West Virginia); and then not lose a single GOP-held seat (like Florida, Kentucky, or Missouri). Cook projects Republicans gaining seven to nine seats, and Rothenberg has it six to eight.

Governors: Democrats currently hold a 26-24 advantage in governorships, but Republicans are poised to pick up anywhere between six and eight governor’s mansions, per both Cook and Rothenberg. While a party holding a majority of governorships is mostly symbolic, it will have a significant impact on the decennial congressional redistricting that will take place next year. The most competitive (and perhaps most significant) contests we are watching: California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Texas.

It's more than likely that this nation is headed for its third-straight change election. In 2006, Democrats won control of Congress. In 2008, Democrats won the White House. And in 2010, Republicans appear poised to take back control of Congress.

To put this into perspective, consider this:

• Only three times since World War I have either the Democrats or Republicans won 20 or more House seats in three-consecutive cycles — after World I, during the Great Depression, and during and after World War II.
• If Republicans gain at least 20 House seats — and that’s viewed as the floor of what is supposed to happen on Election Day — it would be the fourth time since World War I that either Democrats or Republicans will have picked up 20 or more House seats in three-consecutive cycles.
• In fact, our current times appear to have much in common with the period after World War I, the Great Depression, and during and after World War II — economic downturn, war and its aftermath, and political/social unrest (Red Scare, labor strife, McCarthyism).

J. Scott Applewhite  /  AP

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, center, announces the Republicans "Pledge to America" agenda in Sterling, Va. From left are, Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Va., Boehner, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., and Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

So what happens if Republicans take back Congress?

On Sept. 23 in Sterling, Va., House Republicans unveiled their “A Pledge to America,” or their list of priorities if they win back control of Congress. The 21-page document contains five general plans:

On jobs and the economy: They would make the Bush tax cuts permanent (for even families making more than $250,000); give small business owners a tax deduction equal to 20 percent of their business income; and require congressional approval of new federal regulations costing $100 million or more.

On government spending: They would cut government spending to its 2008 level; cap new discretionary spending; cut Congress’ budget; freeze the hiring of non-security federal workers; and hold weekly votes on spending cuts.

On health care: They would repeal the health-care law; enact medical malpractice reform; and ensure access for patients with pre-existing conditions (though the law they want to repeal already does that).

On reforming Congress: They would post the text of any legislation online at least three days before it comes up for a vote; end the practice of attaching non-germane bills to must-pass legislation; and require each bill moving through Congress to include a clause justifying the legislation’s constitutional authority.

On national security: They would fully fund missile defense, require tough sanctions against Iran, and enforce the border.

Chip Somodevilla  /  Getty Images

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY.

Names behind potential Senate GOP leadership and its committee chairman:

Majority leader: Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Assistant majority leader (whip): Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.

Conference chair: Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.

Conference vice-chair: John Barrasso, R-Wyo.

Policy committee chair: John Thune, R-S.D.

National Republican Senatorial Committee chair: John Cornyn, R-Texas.

President pro tempore: Dick Lugar, R-Ind.

For the Democrats, if they hold onto power but Reid loses in Nevada, are:

Majority Leader: Dick Durbin, D-Ill. or Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Ed Andrieski  /  AP

A marijuana plant.

Key issues: Health care, legalization of marijuana and abortion.

Proposition 106 (Arizona): Prohibits mandatory participation in the health care system. A person, employer, or health care provider would decide with no fear of penalty. Allows for purchase of insurance in private health care systems.

Proposition 19 (California): Legalizes the personal use and possession of marijuana for individuals 21 and older. Permits local governments to regulate and tax the sale of marijuana, but would prohibit possession in specific areas and from public use.

Amendment 62 (Colorado): In the state constitution, defines a “person” as beginning at conception. This term would be used relating to inalienable rights, equality of justice, and due process of law.