First Read

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• Friday, January 16, 2004 | 9:25 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
"Somebody has to win the Iowa caucuses on Monday, but who?" -- USA Today

DES MOINES -- We'll make passing references to a little presidential speech on Tuesday; to Plains, GA; to next-up New Hampshire; and to Sarasota, FL, where former Secretary of State Katherine Harris announces today whether she'll run for the US Senate.  Beyond that, we wallow in Iowa. 

As a weekend of intense and colorful politicking begins here, with all four top contenders in the state for the duration apart from Dean's Sunday side trip to see Jimmy Carter, we remind you: It's not polls -- it's people.  Who will caucus on Monday night?  With turnout expected to be roughly double that of the 2000 caucuses, the make-up of only about half the electorate, maybe less, can be even somewhat safely assumed. 

Of course, the polls have taken themselves off the table by now depicting a race that's too close to call.  The Boston Globe considers how Kerry and Edwards have "shown sudden political strength in the final days before the vote, with Kerry so emboldened yesterday that he declared his campaign is surging and Howard Dean declaring the race 'a four-way tie.'"

The Washington Times notes that "for Mr. Kerry, the poll results have been like oxygen, persuading ordinary Iowans to take another look at him."

The New York Times: "The Iowa caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll because it is hard to determine who will actually go to a caucus.  But two public surveys released on Thursday showed the four top candidates in a dead heat, and strategists for the campaigns said they also saw a tight race."

"Though caucus polls are notoriously unreliable, advisers to several campaigns said a new Zogby tracking poll that indicated Kerry was slightly ahead of Dean in Iowa matched other signs that the former Vermont governor is losing his aura of invincibility."

From another New York Times report: "Pollsters say it is almost impossible to develop a statistical sample that properly matches the group of people who will actually turn up at their neighborhood caucuses on Monday night.  Better, party officials say, to rely on anecdotal evidence of witnesses in the field, where party activists have a tighter grip on the pulse of the race.  Here too, though, the evidence points to widespread indecision, despite months of repeated visits by more candidates than Iowa has seen in any other caucus season since 1988."

Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie is in Missouri today to tout Bush's record and pile on Gephardt.

The two candidates who are skipping Iowa have New Hampshire to themselves today.  Embed Dionne Scott says the Lieberman camp's attempted knockdown of Clark is in full throttle, with a new attack on Clark every day.  Yesterday the campaign directed the press to a Drudge Report account, later confirmed, that two weeks before Congress passed the Iraq resolution, in testimony before the House Committee on Armed Services, Clark made a case for war, asserting that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction as well as a link between Iraq and al Qaeda.  Scott says after the story hit the Drudge site, Lieberman quickly discussed his small business plan as scheduled, then held a press avail to blast Clark.  (Lieberman also has begin saying he believes voters are now not only taking a second look at Dean, but also at Clark, Scott notes.)

Embed Marisa Buchanan gets Clark, in what she says was his longest press conference in recent memory, charging that the story came from the Republican National Committee: "This is material that's been dug up by the Republican National Committee.  [They] should have read the whole testimony because it totally refutes the Bush position...  What I was saying then is what I'm saying today, that Saddam Hussein was not an imminent threat...  Was he troublesome?  Sure.  Was he a threat eventually?  Sure.  Was a clock ticking in a two-year, five-year, 10-year time period?  Sure.  Did we have to do this?  No."

"It looks like they've finally figured out that I'm George Bush's greatest threat."

Despite insisting yesterday that he is not running against other Democrats, Clark takes a shot at Dean today.  The campaign announces this morning that they are opening a "reading room" at their hotel in Manchester in which they will make available Clark's financial disclosure forms, tax returns for the last five years, congressional testimonies, military records and speeches.  All soon to be posted online as well. Buchanan adds.  Clark will charge that the federal government is inaccessible and that the first step he can take toward changing that it to releasing all his records.  He will add that he is challenging the rest of the Democratic candidates -- i.e., Dean and his sealed gubernatorial records -- to do the same.

Your Katherine Harris, will she or won't she? -- Miami Herald

2004 notes (R)
The Administration today announces a change of heart on helping manufacturers.  In what the Wall Street Journal calls "an election-year policy reversal, the administration is making a long-term commitment to the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a network of assistance centers around the country for manufacturers...  Mr. Bush proposed phasing out federal support for it last year."

"Under White House pressure, lawmakers cut funding for the partnership to $39.6 million this year from $106 million last year.  Commerce Secretary Don Evans said the president's new budget will propose holding funding for the partnership flat.  But he said the administration now envisions making a sustained commitment to the program.  Pressure is certain to mount on Capitol Hill to add back money now that the administration is behind the idea."

"The proposal is part of a 150-page report, due to be unveiled Friday, on the myriad problems facing the manufacturing sector -- which has lost more than two million jobs since Mr. Bush took office, and the administration's proposed solutions.  Many of the proposals amount to a repackaging of standing policy goals: making tax cuts permanent, curbing product-liability suits and expanding energy production."

"Politically, the report could help the White House in manufacturing-intensive states of the Midwest, which are 2004 battlegrounds.  Companies there have complained for the past several years that they are losing ground, partly because of increased competition from China and other developing countries, and the administration is trying to signal its concern."

Coincidentally, Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe launches a "State of America's Working Families Tour" focusing on the "Bush record" on jobs and health insurance in Ohio and Michigan. 

Reporting from Canton, OH, the Washington Post observes that the economy "is revving back to life, but at least so far, its fruits have gone mainly to those who least need them.... The uneven gains of the economy in the past months have already become political fodder for Democrats seeking to unseat President Bush."

"[T]he widely divergent views on the economy's health expressed by the residents of Canton could speak volumes for Bush's standing in such industrial swing states as Ohio.  It is a truism that no Republican has ever gone to the White House without winning the Buckeye State, and Stark County -- short on party loyalties and long on political independence -- has long been a bellwether.  In the 2000 election, Bush beat Democrat Al Gore here, 48.9 percent to 47.1 percent, a margin only slightly closer than the statewide tally."

A Bush fundraiser in Georgia tells the Washington Times that "Bush's immigration initiative has angered conservative Republicans so much that some are refusing to donate to his re-election campaign...  Phil Kent, a member of the host committee for a Bush fund-raiser in Atlanta yesterday, said he was told by several would-be donors that they would not attend the $2,000-per-person event because of the president's announcement last week on immigration reform."

"Interviews with attendees at last night's fund-raisers revealed a mix of opinions."

The AP: "The Republican National Committee's hefty fund-raising advantage over its Democratic rival is already being felt as the 2004 election year gets under way.  With $33.1 million in the bank and more to come, the RNC is laying plans to spend in races up and down the ticket as the Democratic National Committee works to complete its first task: raising $16 million to help promote its presidential nominee."

"In the presidential race, each committee can spend roughly $16 million in coordination with its nominee, along with the candidates' own fund raising.  While the RNC has all it needs for that and more, the DNC has $10 million raised and about $6 million to go."  Democratic National Committee chairman Terry "McAuliffe expects it will be late March before the DNC accumulates that funding.  That means the general-election season will be getting under way just as the DNC starts raising money for TV ads, get-out-the-vote drives and other non-presidential-specific spending."

Iowa (1/19)
Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver yesterday predicted big turnout, possibly more than the high of 125,000 from 1988. – Des Moines Register 

The New York Post previews Rudy Giuliani's arrival in Iowa: "Giuliani's speech Monday at a Cedar Rapids gathering billed as the Bush-Cheney '04 Outreach Meeting to First Responders is meant to give the Republicans some visibility in the Hawkeye State on the same day as the closely watched Democratic caucuses...  Giuliani's presence in the key political state can't help but raise questions about his own future political ambitions."

USA Today lists some bombs dropped in recent days: "Never before have candidates attacked one another so directly in the closing days before the caucuses:

-- Gephardt unveiled a 30-second TV ad Thursday that attacks Dean's past statements on Medicare and Social Security.  'How much do you really know about Howard Dean?' the announcer asks.

-- Dean is on the air with a 60-second ad that criticizes Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards for voting for the congressional resolution authorizing the war in Iraq.  'I opposed the war in Iraq,' Dean says in the ad.

-- Kerry has distributed fliers that attack Dean and Gephardt for advocating repeal of all of President Bush's tax cuts, including those that benefit the middle class.  The Gephardt camp responded with an attack on Kerry's position on the farm bill and ethanol.

Edwards, presenting himself as a positive alternative, stayed largely above the fray."

Dean embed Felix Schein picks up on signs the campaign is struggling to maintain its momentum.  For one thing, Dean continues to tinker with his stump speech.  After showing remarkable focus earlier in the week, Schein says, Dean again appeared unfocused, worn out and distracted on Thursday.  Toned down and wearing a sweater for the first time, Dean didn't energize the crowds that came to see him, employing a soft touch as he reached out to undecideds.  He spent Thursday clearly singling out Kerry, Edwards and Gephardt for their votes on Iraq and No Child Left Behind, but unlike the riff on this from late summer and the fall, Schein says, Dean returned to the speech of late December and early January -- the one lacking the clear line of attack, the fists, the bulging neck and the desire. 

Behind the scenes, there are problems as well, Schein writes.  While many can be attributed to the size of Dean's press corps, now standing at well over 50, plus three buses, eight cars and dozens of staffers, there are larger issues: no regular photo-ops or media avails are scheduled, and the press staff does not understands the workings of a pool.  Yesterday, Schein points out, Dean and the press drove close to 300 miles to reach fewer than 1,000 voters while making just four legit campaign stops.  In fairness, the size of the press corps is an obstacle, and overall, the campaign readily admits this has always been a close race and has not sought to downplay expectations.

That said, the Dean camp yesterday sent a memo to reporters detailing some stats from the week (number of calls made, number of volunteers, etc.) in which they dismissed polling in Iowa this week as "meaningless."  Asked why the campaign is still polling given that attitude, Schein reports, manager Joe Trippi paused before responding, "Good point."

Schein also notes Dean will grace the covers of Rolling Stone and People this weekend.  (Dean makes some candid revelations in People. – Boston Herald)  Sheryl Crow is making radio calls on his behalf and Janeane Garofalo hits the stump in Iowa tomorrow.  More than 2,000 volunteers are expected to roll into Iowa tomorrow, all of them working to knock on 200,000 doors before Monday.  Sen. Tom Harkin also will call into radio shows for more than an hour and will stump for Dean.

Despite the gains Edwards and Kerry have made in the polls, the Washington Post points out that "Dean -- with superior fundraising and fervent support among younger voters and service unions -- is still considered by his rivals the man to beat.  While his poll numbers have dropped slightly over the week, polls often undercount college-age voters -- who are harder to reach and frequently use cell phones, not the home numbers used by pollsters.  The former Vermont governor is backed by an army of door-knocking volunteers that only Gephardt can match."

"Gephardt, surrounded by industrial union workers, the muscle behind his labor-oriented campaign, used a tour of northern Iowa to continue hammering away at Dean.  A top aide said only Dean has enough political strength to beat back the Missouri Democrat's grizzled veterans from the Teamsters, Machinists other blue-collar unions."

Embed Priya David gets Gephardt pollster Ed Reilly saying: "Our base is very, very solid.  Of any of the candidates, we have the highest percentage of people who say they won't change their minds and that they're definitely coming to the caucus."  Reilly also says of their polling that when considering second-choice candidates, Gephardt is first, while Dean is fourth.  Reilly says they still consider this a two-person race between Dean and Gephardt, mostly because of viability issues for Kerry in too many areas.

Embed Dugald McConnell notes an Edwards e-mail says they aim to knock on 50,000 doors this weekend, and over 500 supporters from out of state will be in to help.  McConnell lists instances of a campaign doing some fine-tuning heading into the final stretch: "The Mellencamp campaign song 'Small Town' no longer blares out from the Edwards campaign bus, or from the speakers after a speech.  Instead, "Your Time is Now" is the favorite, which despite its slow start is noteworthy for matching the headline of the Des Moines Register endorsement.  For good measure, supporters have started chanting 'It's our time now.'  For those who look forward to his final line about the son of a millworker beating the son of a president, it has been replaced by some blander rhetoric about working together, hope and the future, and a president who believes in the American people." 

McConnell adds that "Edwards' five-day Iowa finale calls for five town halls a day and 500 miles of driving -- or flying, as the case will be today.  The campaign schedules at least one event per day in a major media market, but still spends time in the smaller towns that the Edwards strategy relies on, where Thursday's turnouts averaging 150 could be considered a strong showing."

Embed Becky Diamond reports Sen. Ted Kennedy will campaign with Kerry on Sunday and separately in Iowa on Monday.

Diamond also reports on the Kerry copter tour yesterday, saying Kerry was in the backseat for the first flight of 62 miles but asked to take the controls for the second flight of 74 miles.  It went more smoothly when the professional pilot had the stick, Diamond says, but Kerry was clearly psyched to be in control.  He did not take off or land, but he did fly the entire leg of the trip, peppering the pilot with questions about the helicopter and flying.  Diamond also reports Kerry said he talked to his staff "a couple of weeks" ago about renting a helicopter.  "I just really wanted to get around Iowa more.  We finalized the decision early this week.  This is the kind of campaigning I like."  Asked how it felt to be liberated from his staff, he said: "Fabulous, fabulous."  The staff felt the same.

New Hampshire (1/27)
Don't think the polls will be much more predictive in New Hampshire.  USA Today reminds us that the New Hampshire "electorate is not only indecisive, it's indeterminate.  No one knows who will participate in the Democratic primary."

That said, the polls keep coming.  Keying off the latest, the Boston Globe reports, "Analysts agreed that, were Clark not in the field, Kerry would be the beneficiary of the view that Dean is better on domestic rather than foreign issues.  That Clark has overtaken him, and on his signature issue, spells serious trouble for Kerry..."

More 2004 notes (D)
The Wall Street Journal considers whether Dean really will bring a significant number of new voters into the process, and why he needs to.  "On top of the 105 million Americans who showed up in 2000, Dean strategists believe they can attract as many as eight million new voters.  If they succeed, they could change the paradigm for presidential campaigns as fundamentally as their Internet-fueled fund-raising efforts already have.  For years, as voter turnout shrank and the two parties approached parity, politicians spent less effort on luring non-voters than on winning over weakly committed swing voters within the known universe of Americans who go the polls."

"But that may not work for Democrats in 2004.  A little more than half of eligible voters turned out in 2000, and if the same number or fewer go to the polls this year, President Bush's chances of re-election appear bright.  A confluence of favorable developments in recent months have lifted the Republican incumbent's approval rating and given him new strength among swing voters.  The economy is rebounding, a new Medicare prescription-drug benefit is on the way, and Saddam Hussein is in custody."

"So this year, Mr. Dean is spearheading the use of a different tactic: Instead of focusing on winning over swing voters, they're trying to get additional voters to the polls.  In this area, Mr. Dean has a leg up on his rivals" because of his campaign's Internet prowess.

"Political veterans in both parties remain skeptical that Mr. Dean can succeed where others have failed.  Bush advisers envision a potential turnout surge for Mr. Dean that is measurable but marginal.  Some nonpartisan observers agree that's the likeliest outcome."

The Washington Times reports Team Dean is making a play for NASCAR dads by sponsoring a Busch Series race car.  "At $2.5 million, it's a risky price tag for Team Dean Racing, because Mr. Dean is in tight races in must-win primaries and might not even win the Democratic nomination; the NASCAR season runs through November.  But even bolder, say Democratic experts and lawyers, is that the racing team plans to skirt laws that strictly govern how money is raised and spent to promote a presidential campaign."

Jesse Jackson told Sharpton embed Tom Llamas in an interview yesterday that he will not endorse a candidate before the February 3 contests.  His reason: "mad Dean disease."  He says too much mudslinging among the candidates caused him to change his mind.  Llamas notes that Jackson's son, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. has endorsed Dean and that Jackson, himself, has defended Dean in recent weeks.  But when asked about rumors that he would endorse Dean further down the line, he said this: "No that's not true.  I choose to steer all our candidates toward a path that will lead us to victory.  If I wanted to run I would've run.  I chose not to run putting a lot of focus right now on get out the vote on why people should vote."  That said, throughout the interview, Jackson mentioned Dean more than any other candidate.  "Dean has set the pace for this season," said Jackson.  He also defended Dean's stance on the capture of Saddam Hussein and called attacks on Dean's racial record "exaggerated."

A new report by the Center for Media and Public Affairs found that "Dean received significantly more criticism on network newscasts than the other Democratic presidential contenders, who were the subjects of more favorable coverage." – Charlotte News Observer

The Washington Times considers whether the news of Clark's testimony arguably supporting the war in Iraq will hurt him so close to the nominating contests.  "Democratic strategists disagreed on whether they think Mr. Clark's campaign will be damaged by the testimony.  One strategist, who asked that his name not be used, said Mr. Clark's comments early in his campaign were contradictory about the war...  Asked whether the testimony would hurt Mr. Clark so close to the primaries, 'The answer is "yes" and it goes to the universal issue of flip-flopping.'"  Another Democratic consultant "said he did not think the dual position on the Iraq war would hurt Mr. Clark, at least not during the primary process.  He said it would be a different story if he were the nominee.  But he was critical of Mr. Clark's 'spin' explanation of his testimony."

The Washington Post notes the two-front war that Clark found himself in yesterday between the RNC and his fellow Democrats, "who sought to undercut his rise in the polls by seizing on what they say is his history of inconsistent statements about the war in Iraq."

The Wall Street Journal raps Clark in an editorial: "Mr. Clark is reinventing himself almost daily to serve the goals of his new political ambition."

The New York Times considers top Clark aide Chris Lehane's possible (just possible) role in the spate of oppo research bombs being dropped on Clark's rivals.

Embed Angela Miles writes in her final report on the Moseley Braun campaign: "I met up with the Ambassador at O'Hare Airport hours before she would officially end her campaign run.  Her handler invited me into the United Red Carpet Room where Braun and her press aide set the phones aside and talked candidly about the campaign.  Braun appeared almost nostalgic as she recounted how she really did want to win, but money constraints made it impossible.  Despite her low-budget effort, she was never able to raise the necessary campaign cash to compete, and knew it was time to get out.  'I needed to have TV commercials on the air a week ago in South Carolina,' Braun explained, 'but I did not have the money.'  And without TV or radio ads, she felt it was unfair to ask her volunteer ground troops to work the streets."

"Surprisingly, Braun did not appear bothered by the debt the campaign racked up...  She is confident she can cover it with fundraising.  You have to wonder if Howard Dean will help pay it off as a trade-off."

"Braun says the serious conversations of supporting Dean began last Sunday following the Brown & Black debate.  Braun says she and Dean both stayed at the Fort Des Moines Hotel where they met up to talk.  Dean was not wasting time bringing Braun into the fold.  He sent one of his campaign staffers to the Des Moines airport to pick up Braun and her crew of campaign manager Patricia Ireland and handler Glen Osowski.  Ireland donned a Dean for President sticker on her shirt..."

"When she's not offering her time to the Dean campaign, Braun tells me she will continue her law practice, which she readily admits never really stopped during her campaign stint."

Our thanks, Angie.

Rowland
The Hartford Courant says that with GOP Gov. John "Rowland, possibly facing impeachment, an operative hired by state GOP officials has been scrutinizing the financial records of Democratic legislative leaders.  Longtime Rowland aide David Boomer researched several years of financial disclosure documents filed by House Speaker Moira Lyons, House majority leader James Amann, and Senate President pro tem Kevin Sullivan."

"Rowland had told lawmakers that their own shortcomings may be revealed if they impeach him.  The governor's office denied that was a threat and said some legislators brought up the topic themselves in meetings with Rowland."

• Thursday, January 15, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
T-minus four days and counting until the contest in Iowa, and there's so much to report.  For starters, the Democratic presidential field shrinks to eight and loses its only woman.  Embed Angela Miles broke the news last night that Moseley Braun, in debt and mostly grounded in Chicago for the last several weeks, intends to drop out today and endorse Dean in a 2:00 pm ET presser in Carroll, IA.  A close source tells Miles that Moseley Braun believes Dean has the best chance of beating Bush.

This endorsement is the latest in a string of high-profile nods for Dean from African-Americans in his ongoing effort to cultivate a base among minorities, though few of these endorsements -- unlike Rep. Jim Clyburn's support for Gephardt -- come with actual ground operations.  Moseley Braun is no exception; in fact, she has no support in Iowa to hand over to Dean.  Still, it's another well-timed shot of good news for Dean as he battles raging buzz throughout downtown Des Moines that his campaign in Iowa has "hit a ceiling"/"stalled"/what have you.

And embed Tom Llamas interviews Jesse Jackson this morning about Moseley Braun's departure, Sharpton and Dean, and other topics.

The next big piece of news is that Kerry is now leading in the latest MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby Iowa tracking poll.  With Kerry at 22%, Dean at 21%, Gephardt at 21%, and Edwards at 17%, pollster John Zogby notes that the race is now a four-way statistical dead heat.  Kerry "storms" Iowa by helicopter today "so that he can take his message of fighting for working Americans to as many Iowa caucus-goers as possible," says a Kerry press release.  "Kerry, who has spent more days campaigning in Iowa than any other Democrat, will cover more ground and reach more Iowa voters by traveling in a helicopter between campaign stops."

Former Vice President Al Gore gives a major address today attacking the Bush Administration's policies on global warming and the environment at New York's Beacon Theatre at 12:15 pm; the speech is co-sponsored by MoveOn.org and the Environment2004 Education Fund.  Network crew to cover.

Clark and Lieberman are in New Hampshire.

President Bush makes remarks on his faith-based initiative in New Orleans, headlines a fundraising luncheon, lays a wreath on grave of Martin Luther King, Jr., and does another fundraising luncheon in Atlanta.  Yet as the New York Times reports, Bush's MLK event is causing consternation among some civil rights activists in Atlanta because, they say, Bush pushed for war while Dr. King pushed for peace.

Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie breakfasts with state lawmakers in Little Rock, touts the President's policies, and whacks Clark.  (Here's an excerpt of the Clark-whacking: "Just remember that in January 2002, [Clark] told Newsweek magazine that he would have been a Republican 'if Karl Rove had only returned my phone calls.' You know, some people run for president because they hear a call. Wesley Clark's running because he didn't.'")

Finally, we'll end with the results from the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.  Our colleagues at the Wall Street Journal overlook process in favor of policy: "U.S. voters enter the 2004 presidential race still content with President Bush, but wide open to Democratic calls for rolling back tax cuts to reduce record federal budget deficits."

Also: "President Bush has preserved much of the political benefit derived from the economic recovery and the capture last month of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.  Meanwhile, the Democrat currently favored to oppose him next fall ... Dean, has sustained significant political damage from weeks of harsh attacks from his rivals for the party's nomination."

"Yet the poll also shows that, with the federal budget deficit now projected to reach $500 billion this year, Mr. Dean and his fellow Democrats might be on solid ground in calling for a rollback of last year's big tax cuts, despite the fears of some Democrats and the hopes of the White House that the message wouldn't sell."

"At the moment, the good news for President Bush in the survey still outweighs signs of potential difficulties.  Approval ratings of his handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism are both up substantially from before U.S. troops found Mr. Hussein hiding in a hole last month.  By a 51%-to-42% ratio, they say the Republican incumbent deserves re-election.  He also leads a generically identified Democratic opponent by 10 percentage points..."

"In addition to enjoying wide party advantages on values and national-security issues, Mr. Bush continues to benefit from revived public optimism about the economy.  By 50% to 10%, Americans expect the economy to improve over the next year, a far sunnier outlook than they expressed a year ago."

"There are cautionary signs as well.  After another month in which few new jobs were created, Americans remain split on Mr. Bush's handling of the economy.  Just 35% say they feel positively about both the economy and the war on Iraq.  That means a robust majority feels negatively about at least one of the two major issues looming over the campaign."

SOTU build-up
Regarding the President's new focus on the final frontier, the New York Times notes that "if the vision Mr. Bush sketched was expansive, it was at least partly rooted in earthly political concerns.  With the nation deeply divided along partisan lines on the most pressing issues of the day, ... Mr. Bush's political advisers backed the plan as a way of associating the president with a unifying and uplifting election-year goal that transcends politics."

"But with the budget deficit growing rapidly and Democrats pressing for a greater focus on health care, education and other issues, Mr. Bush's plan is sure to face scrutiny on Capitol Hill on fiscal, scientific and ideological grounds...  Democrats were quick to question whether Mr. Bush's projections were rooted in reality."

The New York Times analysis warns, "The fates have been particularly unkind to Republican presidents, who twice made their ambitious ventures in election years.  It is a legacy that President Bush ... hopes to overcome.  The broad goals are the same as those his father proposed as president in 1989, but the new plan is more hedged, giving no firm date for the Mars venture and deferring the need for big spending increases until after what would be Mr. Bush's second term.  In part, it seeks to make vagueness a virtue, which is giving some space experts the jitters."

Why previous plans have failed, and this current one might, per a bunch of experts: "insufficient discipline and seriousness;" and, "Any space plan whose culmination is more than a decade away is probably doomed to failure," per one expert.

The Washington Post: "Its fate will depend heavily on how much credibility NASA, and particularly Administrator Sean O'Keefe, bring to the devilish details -- especially the questions of cost for myriad new initiatives that the new goals will entail, as NASA seeks to develop the long-needed technological advances required for any serious, long-term human presence in space."

On Bush's immigration proposal, the Washington Times says "Bush's political strategists, taking note of the unpopularity of his immigration initiative as reflected in public-opinion polls, expressed confidence yesterday that the proposal will gain support as it is recast as an economic and homeland security issue."  The latest poll to show majority opposition to the plan: the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

"The difficulties come from conservatives who are angry at the proposal, which they say rewards illegal behavior.  On the other hand, the administration's political consultants say the initiative will help Mr. Bush win such states as New Mexico, which he lost by a few hundred votes in 2000."

On the Administration's plan to push marriage, the New York Times, invoking Mary Cheney and Bush's own unclear stance on gay marriage, reports, "Some major conservative Christian groups said yesterday that they were pleased but not satisfied by a new White House initiative to promote marriage, and ... stepped up pressure on President Bush to champion a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage in" the SOTU.

The "insistence on an amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage may put President Bush in a political bind ... caught between wooing potential swing voters and turning out his core evangelical supporters.  Some conservative strategists warn that pushing to amend the Constitution to prohibit same-sex unions could turn off some potential Republican voters like suburban women, who might find excessive talk about the perils of same-sex marriage as intolerant, mean-spirited or weirdly obsessive."

"Mr. Bush's top political adviser, Karl Rove, citing polling data, has often said that he believed the failure of four million conservative Christian voters to turn out in the 2000 presidential election almost kept President Bush out of the White House.  Projecting another close race this year, Mr. Rove has worked hard to stay in regular contact with conservative Christian political leaders."

More 2004 notes (R)
Per the Bush campaign, Vice President Cheney, at two receptions in Los Angeles last night, raised a total of $975,000.

The Boston Globe says "MoveOn.org may have gathered 30-second anti-Bush ads from newcomers, but the pro-Bush folks will be cutting and pasting from the professional Democrats. The GOP sound-bite bank runneth over," if Dean becomes the nominee.

The Washington Times gets a Schwarzenegger strategist saying "that spending the requisite $20 million to $25 million to chase votes in a state where Democrats have a 44 percent to 35 percent registration advantage makes little sense under virtually any circumstances."

Iowa (1/19)
Sen. Tom Harkin sends an e-mail addressed, "Dear Iowa," that includes this: "A plain-spoken, straight-forward Democrat, Howard Dean has the toughness and strength of conviction and character to go toe-to-toe with Karl Rove and George W. Bush.  Because these guys and their special interest cronies plan not just to trash the Democratic candidate, but to poison the entire political atmosphere.  Their strategy is to suppress the vote, sow cynicism, to make people feel powerless. Because the Bush team knows that when voter turnout is low, Big Money carries the day-and they win."

The Washington Post reports that Gephardt, campaigning in Iowa yesterday, launched his "broadest assault" to date on Dean.  "'There is no room for the cynical politics of manufactured anger and false conviction.' He accused Dean of harboring 'great contempt' for the Iowa caucuses and of being a 'fair-weather friend' of workers."

"The Missouri Democrat's attack, in a state historically averse to negative campaigning, comes as Dean is showing signs of weakness and vulnerability. After rolling past his rivals in the early days of this campaign, Dean's support appears to be slipping a bit. Gephardt, short on money and in dire need of an Iowa victory, is calculating that only by tearing down Dean can he eke out victory in Monday's caucuses, a top adviser said."

"Dean, responding on Iowa public television to the attacks from Gephardt and other rivals, said, 'Let's not kid ourselves about this. These guys are looking at the end of their careers if I win, so they're going to do anything they can to stop me.'"

After having spent the past day and a half in New York, Washington State, California, and Michigan, Gephardt now has only the Hawkeye State on his mind, reports Embed Priya David.  Gephardt might take some heat for campaigning outside of Iowa, but David says the Gephardt camp wants to this to be more than a one-state strategy.  It insists it's running a national campaign.  And David adds that the campaign seems to have met the $200,000 fundraising goal it set for Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times says Edwards and Kerry "struck a mostly positive tone" on the trail in Iowa yesterday. "They were hoping campaign-weary Iowans would tire of the increasing negativity and come their way in the final days before the caucuses launch the nominating process."

Embed Dugald McConnell gets this quote from Edwards: "It's always easier to get attention when you're negative, attacking. That's what you guys pay attention to. But over time, the positive message is getting through, driving through all the negativity, with people seeing that I have the backbone and character to be president, and that I can beat George Bush in every part of the country."

Embed Becky Diamond say two things could explain Kerry's jump in the Iowa polls: He's sharper, more focused, more energized than he was in November, and undecided voters are finally beginning to make up their minds and are choosing Kerry.  Said spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter, "There's clearly momentum behind Kerry's candidacy right now.  With five days until votes start, it's too soon to predict where we will finish.  But, as we've said all along, [there are] three tickets out of Iowa, we're happy with just one."

A Post analysis has more on Team Dean: "[O]n the eve of the first critical votes of 2004, Dean's campaign is showing obvious signs of nervousness. His campaign is now less about cyber-innovation and more about delivering support from Democratic voters, and the question that will be answered in the days ahead is whether Dean has built his campaign on a solid foundation or one that will fracture if there is a setback or defeat."

Yet Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi and others "point to larger-than-expected turnouts for caucus training sessions here this week and an event in Muscatine over the weekend at which almost half of those who attended either had never participated in the caucuses before or were not even registered to vote. If that interest in Dean translates into a big turnout at the caucuses Monday, then Dean may be on a track to beat his rivals here and head into New Hampshire revitalized. A loss here, after all the magazine covers and the buildup about his campaign, will intensify questions about whether he is the right candidate to lead the party against President Bush."

Close observers and other campaigns have begun to question whether the eager young Deaniacs might rub Iowa's caucusgoers the wrong way.  The New York Times has this Dean GOTV script: "A prepared script offers Dean volunteers hints for handling voters.  'If they get upset and try to cut you off or hang up,' the instructions read, 'assertively tell your story.'  The script continues: Listen, I know people are sick of the calls and the mail, but I'm not a telemarketer.  I dropped everything and drove /came all the way from ____.   I'm volunteering here because we need a candidate who can stand up to George Bush and take our country back. That's why so many of us have come to Iowa.'"

"The Dean campaign estimates that it will have had 3,500 volunteers by caucus day, falling short of its initial goal of 5,000 recruits."

New Hampshire (1/27)
As the New York Daily News reports that two new polls have Dean's lead in New Hampshire shrinking to 9 points and 10 points over Clark, embed Felix Schein notes Dean blasted Clark for his ties to the Republican Party -- adding that this was the first time in months he had done this on the stump.  Embed Marisa Buchanan gets reaction from the General: "I'm a Democrat. I'm a Democrat of conviction. I voted for Al Gore, for Bill Clinton. You can see all my programs laid out here. When I got out of the military, I was courted by both parties. I chose to become a Democrat and as the Democratic nominee, I'll bring a lot of other people to this party."

According embed Dionne Scott, Lieberman asked the attorney general in New Hampshire yesterday to actively investigate allegations, first reported in the Manchester Union Leader, that someone is calling independent voters and telling them they can't vote in the state's primary.  Lieberman, who is banking on independent voters in the primary, said, "The fact is it amounts to voter suppression, voter intimidation. And having been through Florida in 2000, I don't want to see that happen again, certainly not in New Hampshire."

In addition, says embed Dionne Scott, the Lieberman camp mailed out seven pairs of flip-flops to the Clark campaign to highlight what Lieberman calls the seven different positions the General has taken on the Iraq war.  Attached to each pair was a description of each of Clark's so-called flip-flops.

More 2004 notes (D)
The Los Angeles Times says that Clark's dismissal from his command in 1999 was "a turning point" in his career and led to his eventual decision to run for President, while the New York Times dissects the Clark stump speech, noting its effort to transcend politics and focus on Bush, but also how Clark's one-dimensional military background can be problematic.

Meanwhile, as Clark begins to move up in the polls, the Washington Post says that like Dean, "Clark has found himself forced to explain and even clarify his words, a task that has persisted since the campaign's first days when he said he 'probably' would have voted for a congressional resolution authorizing the invasion of Iraq."

The New York Post writes up last night's story on ABC, which reported that Dean "took the highly unusual step as Vermont governor of intervening in a custody case for state trooper Dennis Madore," who had abused his wife.  "At the behest of Madore's lawyer, a close friend, Dean filed an affidavit claiming the cop was 'a firm but gentle disciplinarian' and 'a wonderful parent,' the report said.

"Dean has denied knowing of the abuse, but the wife's lawyer - former Vermont Attorney General Jerry Diamond - said that raises questions about Dean's judgment in inserting himself into the case."

Embed Karin Caifa says that even after a dismal showing in the D.C. primary, Kucinich was back on the stump and once again showing his stubborn refusal to drop out of this race any time soon. According to the AP, he told an audience at Bates College in Maine that he still believes the nomination will be decided at the national convention this summer.

• Wednesday, January 14, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
The President rolls out his next "vision thing," his space initiative, at NASA HQ at 3:15 pm to little advance press.  His Number Two makes remarks at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Visitors Center in Pasadena, CA at 5:50 pm ET.

New NBC/Wall Street Journal poll numbers on Bush's standing and the 2004 campaign, along with the war and the economy, will be released on NBC Nightly News at 6:30 pm and in Thursday's Wall Street Journal. 

Sen. Ted Kennedy attacks Bush's Iraq policy at the Mayflower Hotel in DC at 12 noon.  Excerpts: "The Administration and the majority in Congress have put the state of our union at risk, and they do not deserve another term in the White House or in control of Congress...  War in Iraq was a war of choice, not a war of necessity.  It was a product they were methodically rolling out.  There was no imminent threat, no immediate national security imperative, and no compelling reason for war...  The President should never have sent them in harm's way in Iraq for ideological reasons and on a timetable based on the marketing of a political product."

Dean returns to the trail today, doing two town halls in New Hampshire before kicking off an Iowa bus tour that will take him through the caucuses with just one interruption: a side trip to Plains, GA on Sunday, where he'll do the faith thing by attending Sunday school and services with Jimmy Carter in a get-together that apparently is not an endorsement.  Carter has long been an unofficial supporter, embed Felix Schein says, reportedly attracted to the Dean campaign's "energy" and to Dean's message on Iraq.  Son Chip Carter has been an active Dean volunteer and advisor for some time, and a number of former Carter aides have joined in other capacities.  Schein notes Carter will avoid using the "e" word, per the Dean campaign, commenting instead on the Iowa caucuses and Dean's grassroots organization. 

Kind of like Clark's appearance with Jesse Jackson yesterday...  Embed Marisa Buchanan notes Clark dismissed any talk of an endorsement.  Jackson told the press they discussed "democratizing access to capital."  He did, however, without much prompting, add that the battle for the nomination must have "one eye on competition and one on cooperation."  He added, "there must be some civility and maturity in this race."  Jackson praised Clark for the way he had handled himself thus far in the race and said that many of the other candidates had " mad Dean disease" and could not see beyond that. 

Clark greets commuters at Grand Central this morning, and gives a homeland security speech in Concord, NH at 4:00 pm.

The Wall Street Journal guns the "Clark as anti-Dean" engine twice.  First in a news story: "Increasingly, the [New Hampshire] contest is shaping up as a test of strength between Mr. Clark's Southern roots and military resume, which appeal broadly to voters, and the energy of the Dean campaign, which claims it can draw three million to four million new voters to polls in November to oust President Bush."  Second, in an editorial about how Dean and Clark's success reflects on the Democratic party: "What does it say about this proud political party that its most fervent voters are rejecting their biggest names for candidates who neither they nor the rest of the country know much about?"

"The one thing both men have in common is how little anyone really knows about what they believe...  To stop Mr. Dean, other Democrats are turning to the blank slate that is Mr. Clark, who has never held office before and until recently was a Republican."

As Dean puts Iraq front and center in Iowa, USA Today runs a 1995 letter from Dean on official Vermont stationery in which Dean "urged President Clinton to act unilaterally and enter the war in Bosnia:" "'I have reluctantly concluded that the efforts of the United States and NATO in Bosnia are a complete failure,' he wrote, citing reports of genocide during the Bosnian civil war.  'If we ignore these behaviors ... our moral fiber as a people becomes weakened. ... We must take unilateral action.'"

"Dean's support for the war in Bosnia is one of several examples he uses to differentiate himself from Democrats who oppose virtually all international intervention.  His advisers say his stance has remained consistent over the years: A humanitarian crisis of the scale that occurred in Bosnia should trigger an armed intervention.  So, too, would an attack or imminent attack on the United States."

Kerry goes after Bush and special interests in a 12 noon speech at St. Ambrose College in Davenport.  Per the campaign paper, he will lay out how he'll "end the Bush Special Interest Economy by standing up to the special interests and setting a course to a stronger, fairer and more prosperous country."  In a shot at Dean, Kerry will say, "The Iowa caucuses don't belong to the special interests; they belong to you.  On Monday night, you can open the way to a stronger, fairer, more prosperous country..."

The potential power of low-income families at the polling place is outlined today in a new study and a press conference at the National Press Club at 12 noon.

And your Connecticut Gov. John Rowland (R) possible impeachment update: "House Speaker Moira K. Lyons is expected to announce today that she will create a special committee to investigate Rowland's ethical lapses - and, if warranted, move toward his impeachment" says the Hartford Courant.    Rowland said yesterday that "he welcomes a 'deliberate, objective and fair' inquiry of his conduct."

"Rowland also decided Tuesday to avoid attending a scheduled fund-raiser for President Bush in Greenwich on Jan. 29.  Rowland also touched on his recent tribulations by reading inspirational musings to a drug and alcohol conference in Cromwell.. . The governor decided to cancel his appearance at the Bush fund-raiser, Rowland spokesman Dean Pagani said, because of the magnitude of the controversy surrounding the Rowland administration."

The New York Times calls for Rowland to resign.

SOTU build-up
The New York Times reports Administration officials are proposing a $1.5 billion initiative to promote marriage, particularly among low-income couples.  Yet they are mulling over whether Bush should tout the initiative in his State of the Union address.  "The officials said they believed that the measure was especially timely because they were facing pressure from conservatives eager to see the federal government defend traditional marriage, after a decision by the highest court in Massachusetts...  Several conservative Christian advocacy groups are pressing Mr. Bush to go further and use the State of the Union address to champion a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage.  Leaders of these groups said they were confused by what they saw as the administration's hedging and hesitation concerning an amendment."

More 2004 notes (R)
A Republican National Committee spokesperson informs First Read that RNC chairman Ed Gillespie will speak in Arkansas on Thursday and in Missouri on Friday.  Gillespie "will talk about the contrast between the President's strong leadership and several of the Democrats running for president," the spokesperson says, adding that Gillespie might get specific on home-state Democrats Clark and Gephardt. 

The Los Angeles Times lays out Bush's "orphan budget" problem: "President Bush, preparing his election-year budget, is under intense pressure from conservatives to slow the vast expansion of government spending since taking office three years ago.  But to achieve even his own goal of cutting the deficit in half over five years, Bush will propose limits on popular programs like highway construction and energy subsidies - programs that congressional Republicans may be loath to curb just as they are running for reelection...  Bush's blueprint may be too fat for fiscal conservatives and too lean for lawmakers seeking to keep their jobs."

"This budget for 2005, which Bush plans to send to Congress on Feb. 2, will find a political and economic climate far different from a year ago.  Last January's... sluggish economy has now picked up steam.  The edgy anticipation of war with Iraq has been replaced by the more prosaic, divisive job of" occupation.  "Bush's stature, once enhanced by bipartisan support for his foreign policy, is peppered daily with attacks from nine Democratic presidential candidates."

"Those changes will be reflected in the fact that Bush is not expected to include a big new tax cut to stimulate the economy, as he did last year.  He is not expected to request more money for rebuilding Iraq - the $19 billion provided for this year should last at least through 2005.  And with his domestic policies under fire on the campaign trail, Bush is spotlighting proposed increases in popular programs - while saying little about areas that will be squeezed."

"Another big change since last year is that simmering discontent with Bush's budget policy among conservatives has come to a rolling boil.  They have complained loudly about the growth of spending during Bush's presidency - almost 24% in three years - much of it for defense and homeland security."

"Bush's biggest test may come not in his budget request but in how much he stands up to Congress to enforce his spending limits.  He has yet to veto any legislation since becoming president, and some Republicans have suggested that he veto a bill this year to reestablish his bona fides as a fiscal conservative."

"Bush and Congress are headed toward an early confrontation.  One of the first bills to come before Congress this year will be a major highway bill - an election-year bonanza for lawmakers up for reelection."

Conservative Democratic Sen. Zell Miller "plans to introduce President Bush at a Bush-Cheney fund-raiser in Atlanta tomorrow and actively campaign for the Republican president," the Washington Times reports.  A Bush campaign spokesperson "added that other Georgia Democrats would also announce their support for Mr. Bush tomorrow, although he would not say who or how many."

DC (1/13)
Dean won, with slightly higher turnout than in 2000 – Washington Times.

Embed Tom Llamas notes Sharpton spent DC primary day visiting different polling sites, which might land him in some trouble since candidates are not supposed to be within 50 feet of a polling site, so an investigation may be in order.  Llamas, who traveled with Sharpton yesterday, reports Sharpton was inside at least three polling sites, and at another one, he was immediately asked to leave upon entering.  Llamas also reports that Kucinich made a late-night call to Sharpton to congratulate him on his placing, and to thank him for bringing up the statehood issue.

Per embed Angela Miles, Moseley Braun says she has no regrets about her decision to not campaign in DC in recent days, noting she did retail politics and some hand-shaking earlier.  Miles notes that on the candidate's announcement day in DC, her then-manager said the DC primary was critical.

Iowa (1/19)
The Des Moines Register updates its look at undecided voters.  The Los Angeles Times seems to have interviewed almost 4,700 people in Winterset, IA: "Locals are weary of campaign speeches and Swiss-cheese promises.  They're tired of gotcha ads, down-and-dirty political mailers and those annoying computer-driven phone messages from candidates...  And if Democratic voters are numbed by the onslaught, Republicans loyal to George W. Bush stopped listening a long time ago.  After nearly a year of enduring nonstop politicking and millions of dollars in advertising, most everybody in this town of 4,700 say they've heard enough."

"Iowa's caucuses are the first chance Democrats will get to have their say about who will oppose President Bush in November.  But for all their importance politically and for all the obsessive attention of the national news media, few people here in Winterset - or elsewhere in Iowa - will actually participate."

The New York Times suggests in separate stories that Kerry and Edwards are gaining ground in Iowa: Story One; Story Two.

The Chicago Tribune also looks at how Edwards and Kerry may have Big Mo.

The AP offers its take on the Gephardt vs. Dean "old guard vs. new guard" GOTV efforts: "Locked in a tight four-way battle for Monday's caucuses, Gephardt is counting on union workers to help him eke out victory.  It's the big question of this campaign: Who's get-out-the-vote system is better?  Dean has more money, a sophisticated voter tracking system and 2,000 Iowans lobbying neighbors and friends on the candidate's behalf, plus 3,500 out-of-state volunteers providing support.  Gephardt's effort includes 600 out-of-state union activists knocking on doors of labor workers, all veterans of political or union campaigns."

The Wall Street Journal's Harwood looks at an old guard vs. new guard split between manufacturing and service-sector labor.  "Though the [labor] movement is unified on issues in theory, service and government workers care most about causes like organizing and government spending.  Manufacturing workers care most about the trade issue that is Mr. Gephardt's trademark."

The Washington Post on the new Dean and Gephardt attack ads in Iowa: "the new commercials captured the state of a tightening race, with the candidates fighting for narrow advantages in a highly fluid environment and attacks flying in multiple directions at once."

"Dean and Gephardt are engaged in an intense battle for first place in Iowa, but veteran Democrats say the order of finish remains highly unpredictable, and Dean's attack on all three of his top opponents appeared to be a ratification of that assessment."

Embed Felix Schein notes that with his new TV ad and all the rhetoric, Dean clearly believes his opposition to the war in Iraq is his ticket to the nomination.  And increasingly, the campaign believes, those supporting others who might drift toward Dean will do so because of this one issue. 

A Gephardt campaign e-mail to supporters focuses on Dean's attack on Gephardt over the war and Dean's switch from supporting to opposing the supplemental.  In his foreign policy speech yesterday, "Gephardt, who supported the war in Iraq, said yesterday he had personally urged President Bush to give international inspectors enough time to search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  But Bush, Gephardt said, ignored his pleas." – Boston Globe

Embed Priya David reports Gephardt addressed his absence from Iowa yesterday: "For my own sake, I probably should be in Iowa right now, tending to next Monday's caucuses and other more parochial concerns.  But the very heart of my candidacy - one of the central reasons I'm running for president, in this time of trial and terror - is to restore American leadership in the world."

The Los Angeles Times: "The ad comes only two weeks after Dean had asked Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe to prod other candidates to tone down their attacks on him - a request McAuliffe rejected."  Also: "Kerry focused his fire on the new ad, rather than debating the war itself."

Embed Becky Diamond notes that on Monday, Kerry responded to a question at an event in Fort Madison about a plan for post-war Iraq, claiming he was the first Democratic candidate to lay out a plan.  Tuesday, Diamond says, at a Kerry event in Independence, a Dean campaign worker handed out flyers stating, "Kerry misleads on Iraq policy."  The flyer shows a side-by-side comparison of the Dean and Kerry post-war Iraq plans and shows Dean had a seven-point plan announced on April 9, while Kerry's was released on July 10.  Kerry said about the flyer: "I don't know what he's talking about.  I'm trying to talk about my vision of the country.  I don't want to get into the negative.  I want to talk about how we're going to make America stronger."

A source close to Kerry tells Diamond that the effort to organize veterans is "unprecedented in Iowa."  The vets are "hard to identify, hard to find, and hard to bring to the caucus process."  The Kerry campaign has veterans calling other veterans -- the vets respond better to fellow veterans calling them than to some 19-year-old, a senior campaign aide says.  This senior aide says "it doesn't take that many voters to shift a precinct."  Kerry's campaign claims 10,000 vets will caucus for him on Monday.

The Washington Post on Kerry's veteran fixation: "Kerry's support for the war in Iraq, and retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark's entrance into the Democratic race, complicated the political calculus.  But now, as he slogs across Iowa from Elks lodges to community centers, Kerry is reviving the military imagery and issues." 

"In caucuses that drew fewer than 62,000 people four years ago, a strong turnout by veterans could be significant.  Iowa has 292,000 veterans, according to the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Kerry campaign has twice contacted by mail the 90,000 registered as Democrats or independents...  Overall, 2,600 of them have signed Kerry pledge cards and 4,500 have said verbally they support him, though it is less certain they will turn out on caucus night."

Embed Dugald McConnell says Edwards worked to paint himself as an underdog on Tuesday.  "They have advantages - Dean and Kerry are busting the caps, Gephardt has lots of organized labor support," he told the press in West Des Moines.  But, he said later that those campaigns were not moving, best he could tell, and the only campaign that's moving was his.

"Iowa backers of retired Gen. Wesley Clark said Tuesday they will air a radio ad asking whether Iowans plan to nominate a candidate who 'can't actually beat George Bush,'" the Des Moines Register reports.   The leader of the independent effort "said the ad isn't directed at front-runner Howard Dean, it raises the question of electability that has dogged the former governor of Vermont."

MSNBC.com's Curry reminds us of why Iowa and New Hampshire begin the nominating process.  As does Cook Political Report editor and NBC News political analyst Charlie Cook in a Los Angeles Times op-ed: "Critics have long suggested that Iowa and New Hampshire... are hardly representative of the nation as a whole...  But it also isn't hard to reach a different conclusion, as Dean apparently did after spending a great deal of time campaigning in Iowa.  Although it's true that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire is truly representative of the country, the two states play an important role in the nominating process that would be difficult to replicate elsewhere."

New Hampshire (1/27)
Boston Herald headline: "Clark soars; Kerry fades in NH."    "Relentless attacks on Dean by Kerry and U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman have hurt the former Vermont governor, pulling him down to 29 percent with Clark at 20 percent in the poll."  Kerry is in third with 15%.

A Clark campaign e-mail to supporters reads, "I've decided to stay here in New Hampshire for most of the next two weeks, inspired by the thousands of volunteers working here with me and the incredible response to our campaign."

The AP covers Lieberman's Clinton legacy" speech in New Hampshire yesterday, noting that "Clinton's personal scandals" will not "stop Lieberman from singing his praises, even though he publicly denounced his behavior five years ago."

"Joe Lieberman tried on Tuesday to envelop himself in the legacy of Bill Clinton by pledging to stick with voters 'until the last dog dies,' but he faced strong competition from rival Wesley Clark for the title of true Clinton heir," says the Hartford Courant. "Lieberman's strategy of embracing Clinton carries a special risk, because he is trying to appeal to the independents and Republicans who continue to express dismay over Clinton's Oval Office behavior, the affair with intern Monica Lewinsky that led to his 1998 impeachment."

Embed Dionne Scott says Lieberman delivered his speech at the same place where Clinton famously turned around his 1992 primary campaign, and gave a little history: "I was the first Senator outside of the South to endorse him.  I stood with him before he was the Comeback Kid."  Lieberman, Scott notes, also proceeded to list Clinton's accomplishments and give examples of how he would follow in his footsteps.

But what about Lieberman's famous speech condemning Clinton in the Lewinsky scandal?  Scott reports that Lieberman didn't mention this in his speech, but when asked about it later, he replied: "I just separated the two.  That's why I opposed the impeachment.  Because I thought that notwithstanding his behavior, he was continuing to enjoy the trust of the American people because he was doing so well for them."

The Washington Post editorial page assesses Lieberman, praising his ideological consistency.  "Mr. Lieberman is offering himself to voters as the rightful heir to Mr. Clinton's Democratic Party and the logical choice for those seeking an alternative to President Bush and former Vermont governor Howard Dean...  It may say more about the current state of the Democratic Party than it does about Mr. Lieberman that he is having a difficult time making this message sell."

South Carolina (2/3)
State Democratic party chair Joe Erwin and other party officials hold a news conference today to discuss the party's preparations for their "First-In-The-South Presidential Primary" on February 3.  The State previews, reporting that the party is well down the road toward readiness for its primary, which it must pay for and staff on its own.  The state party may also use part of the same reporting system Iowa Democrats plan to use Monday night.

Now that DC is over, embed Tom Llamas reports, for the time being, Sharpton will move his operation into South Carolina and Michigan.  Campaign manager Charles Halloran says the DC office will stay open through the February 14 caucus, but some staffers will move to South Carolina. 

Embed Angela Miles says Moseley Braun campaign manager Patricia Ireland reports "things are going well" in South Carolina, though she adds that she's frustrated by comments by Rep. Jim Clyburn, who supports Gephardt.  Ireland says Clyburn is telling the African-American community not to throw away their votes.

More 2004 notes (D)
The New York Times examines the health-care plans of all nine Democratic candidates.  They "disagree, often sharply, on how they would expand coverage, how they would pay for it, whose plan would work best and how many of the more than 43 million uninsured Americans they would try to reach.  But beneath these disagreements is a consensus that a health care crisis of soaring costs and declining coverage has returned."

Embed Marisa Buchanan reports on Clark campaign chair Eli Segal's talk about the campaign and its ties to former President Clinton (a relationship, we'd note, that Clark downplayed when he got in the race): "While the other candidates are banging each other in Iowa, our man is talking about real issues to real people in New Hampshire...  He [Clark] is the mainstream of the Democratic party.  We've done it substantively, we've done it with the endorsements, we've done it with the people who identify with him and we've done it basically with what he says...  We do not think the real Democrat issue resonates with voters."

More: "Many people from the Clinton administration and the campaign believe he is, Wes Clark is the best representation of the views, the substance and the style of President Clinton.  And we are gonna to reflect that this weekend."  Asked about a possible endorsement by Clinton, Segal said Clinton has said he would support the nominee, but also said, "We wouldn't be opposed to it."  Asked about Clinton's role with the campaign: "We keep him abreast of what's going in the campaign.  He's been quite helpful in his advice, I don't think the advice he is giving is unique to us."  Segal also said fundraisers "fairly regularly" link up with the campaign through Clinton. 

And, Buchanan reports, Segal said "the campaign made sure that if Milosevic was going to be critical of our man according to Hugh Shelton, that the President was going to defend both Wes Clark and his own war in Kosovo which the campaign was able to access the president to do."  Buchanan notes this is interesting because at the time, the campaign said they had no involvement with Clark testifying at The Hague, but they did preemptively help by reaching out to Clinton so they could defend Clark's reputation outside of the court as well as within.

The Boston Globe gives Dean's gubernatorial record a thorough look.

Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi to Howard Kurtz on Dean's intense media coverage: "'The coverage doesn't get what this campaign is about, the way it's dramatically changed politics.'"

• Tuesday, January 13, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
Amidst the increasingly public animosity between the Administration and its former Treasury Secretary, don't lose sight of Bush's Number Two, out west for fundraising and State of the Union momentum-building.  President Bush returns from Mexico tonight post-NN, with his next scheduled big event being his to-the-moon speech tomorrow. 

After declaring yesterday that he's had enough, changing his latest position against negative attacks and taking swipes at his top three Iowa rivals, Dean is down for today in Burlington, VT.  Although it's not as hard-hitting as Drudge had billed, the New York Times notes that Dean "has slipped into turbulent territory," now facing tough challenges in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and also after a "faltering performance" at Sunday's MSNBC debate.  Plenty more on this below.

Gephardt gives his foreign policy speech at the Council on Foreign Relations at 8:30 am, then heads to Seattle.  Kerry is Iowa, doing a town hall with Iowa veterans in Waterloo and a concert with Carole King, among other events.  As Dean whacked his top Iowa rivals yesterday, Kerry New Hampshire chair and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen called a press conference -- without informing the candidate, embed Becky Diamond says -- to attack Clark, who seems to be overtaking Kerry for second place in the Granite State.  Shaheen challenged Clark's allegiance to the Democratic party; embed Marisa Buchanan says Clark called the attacks "old-style politics."  Clark remains in New Hampshire today.

Buchanan also reports Clark said he knows nothing about fundraising calls made by Bill Clinton on his behalf, as reported n yesterday's New York Post.  That said, Clark's campaign holds a 2:45 pm conference call today, led by former Sen. David Pryor and campaign chair and former Clinton health care guru Eli Segal, "to announce the arrival of a team of high-profile Clinton officials in New Hampshire.  They will campaign throughout the state and will converge on Saturday at a large scale event with General Clark." 

Lieberman, also in New Hampshire and also feeling threatened by Clark, gives a speech on "building on the Clinton legacy" in Dover at 3:00 pm.  Lieberman on Clark yesterday, per embed Dionne Scott: "These inconsistencies should be measured by people, inconsistencies on this question, on whether he supported the war with Saddam, which he took six different positions on, ultimately opposing it.  Why is it important?  Because when someone is inconsistent as a candidate, it should make the voters wonder whether they really know what kind of president that person would be."

And Edwards also is in New Hampshire later today, doing town halls. 

DC holds its non-binding, "beauty contest" Democratic presidential primary today.  Of the four -- Dean, Kucinich, Moseley Braun and Sharpton -- who are competing, only Sharpton is in DC today.  His victory party tonight is at Republic Gardens at 14th and U.  Kucinich is in North Dakota.  Moseley Braun is down in Chicago.  The other five candidates will not appear on the ballot as a show of support for Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Haley Barbour gets sworn in today as the new governor of Mississippi.  The Jackson Clarion-Ledger says it's the final day of six days of inaugural festivities which have featured performances by the Gatlin Brothers and Kenny Rogers.

As Barbour takes office, the New York Times notes there's more pressure for Connecticut Gov. John Rowland (R) to resign.  "Representative Christopher Shays, the state's most prominent Republican politician and a longtime friend of... Rowland, called on the governor Monday to resign.  'He has lost the trust of the people,' Mr. Shays said. 'And he does not want to work to restore that trust.'"

"The announcement came on the same day that six more Republican state senators said Mr. Rowland's resignation would be in the best interest of the state. Eleven out of 15 Republican senators have now called for him to step aside after he admitted taking gifts from people who are the subject of a federal corruption investigation."

"Mr. Rowland has admitted lying about accepting free work and gifts at his cottage from people who did business with the state. Many of those people are at the center of a federal corruption investigation."

SOTU build-up (immigration, space, etc.)
The Los Angeles Times welcomes the Vice President: "Cheney arrives in Los Angeles tonight as part of a four-day swing through Western states that opens a new stage in the Bush-Cheney reelection effort."

"From now on, aides say, the vice president intends to intensify his work on the campaign - with fundraising and speeches - as it kicks into gear with the president's State of the Union address Jan. 20."

"Traditionally, a vice president takes the role in a political campaign of speaking to the party base, allowing the president to stay more in the center to target independents and swing voters.  But in California, where Republicans tend to be moderate, campaign insiders say Cheney will concentrate on subjects that are not seen as partisan issues, such as national security and space."  (Per the campaign, Cheney raised $300,000 in Denver last night.)

The Washington Times: "Hispanic groups have welcomed President Bush's immigration proposal as a 'good sign' that the issue may rise to the front of politics, though they say it appears to be aimed at political gain more than successful passage in Congress."

An AP poll says "Bush's plan to build a space station on the moon and eventually send astronauts to Mars hasn't grabbed the public's imagination...  More than half in the poll said it would be better to spend the money on domestic programs rather than on space research."

"It made a difference who was said to be behind the plan.  When half the poll sample was asked about a 'Bush administration' plan to expand space exploration instead of the 'United States' plan, opposition increased.  Just over half of Democrats' opposed the plan by 'the United States.'  Once it was identified as a 'Bush administration' plan, Democrats opposed it by a 2-to-1 margin."

The Washington Times says Bush "will ask for international participation" in his proposal.  "Although the thrust of the Bush space initiative will be within the context of domestic policy, sources said the president prefers the United States avoid undertaking such ambitious exploration journeys alone, if at all possible, and that the new plan not rule out international participation."

"As of Friday, however, aerospace industry sources said none of the major U.S. partners in the International Space Station - including the European Space Agency, Japan and Canada - had been contacted to arrange a briefing before the president speaks."

"Inviting such participation is a complex issue, however, whose full effect on the new space policy probably will not become apparent until later this year..."

More 2004 notes (R).
The Washington Post reports that the Republican National Committee "plans to ask the Federal Election Commission today to ban the raising of $300 million or more in 'soft money' by pro-Democratic groups seeking to pay for voter mobilization and TV ads in this year's elections.  The request marks a reversal of traditional Republican opposition to regulating political money.  Democrats say the shift is motivated by the GOP's recognition that tougher regulation might work to Democrats' disadvantage."

"The Republican request would restrict most political spending to 'hard money' contributions, which are limited to $2,000 per individual to a federal candidate.  The Republican Party and President Bush hold a substantial advantage over Democrats in raising such money."

A spokesperson for some of the pro-Democratic groups calls this an attempt to silence progressive voices.

DC (1/13)
The Washington Post calls the contest today "equal parts presidential primary and civil rights protest" in DC's push for statehood.  The Washington Times notes how Sharpton "says he has mentioned statehood for the District in every Democratic presidential debate." 

Embed Tom Llamas says Sharpton will mobilize first-time voters from Anacostia High School. 

Embed Angela Miles says Moseley Braun will be at her Chicago HQ today as DC voters head to the polls.  Campaign manager Patricia Ireland tells Miles the vote isn't crucial because no delegates get assigned from the non-binding outcome. 

Iowa (1/19)
The New York Times has everything you need to know about how the Iowa caucuses work and how delegates are won. 

The Los Angeles Times on the "'crazy tight'" -- per a top state party operative -- Iowa contest: "none of the four candidates seriously vying in the caucuses enjoys a clear-cut advantage over any other.  Dean has spent a record sum on TV ads in Iowa and has frequently drawn large, enthusiastic crowds.  But his blunt speaking can be off-putting to some Democrats, and his prickly nature... has raised questions about his temperament.  Kerry... has a war-hero resume and started the race as a favorite, only to fall back into the pack because of his equivocal stance on the Iraq war and his sluggish campaign style.  Gephardt... is regarded as Dean's toughest Iowa opponent, thanks to his strong support from labor and his roots in the Midwest.  But his vote supporting the Iraq war hurt him, and he is dogged by a perception that he is too much a part of the party's past.  Edwards, of North Carolina, has won favor for his populist message and his largely positive campaign style.  But some voters view the one-term senator as too inexperienced."

Embed Felix Schein reports, following Dean's attacks on his top three Iowa rivals yesterday, that when asked if the change reflected a tightening in the polls, Dean did not try to spin the situation, pointing out that every vote counts and that he is in the race of his life.  While Dean was quick to predict he would win, Schein says, he also cautioned that he isn't taking anything for granted, stressing time and time again the shortcomings of his three rivals.  Schein adds that Dean seemed electrified on the stump yesterday -- but also that Dean's crowds seem to have plateaued.  He has previously visited many of the communities he stumped in yesterday and the crowds did not considerably increase. 

Embed Dugald McConnell notes Dean's shot at Edwards as a Washington pol yesterday is another anecdotal sign Edwards has momentum; Schein notes it was the first time Dean has attacked Edwards in months.  The Raleigh News & Observer says Edwards is gaining in the state. – Charlotte News Observer

The Washington Post: "Dean's decision to push back against his opponents underscored concerns among his advisers and supporters that he has spent too much time on the defensive in recent weeks and that he has sometimes appeared rattled by rivals' attacks and lackluster in debate."

An Iowa "loss by Dean could change the dynamic of the Democratic race, and far from embracing a front-runner's strategy of soaring above the fray, Dean mentioned all his main rivals by name."

"Dean seemed particularly annoyed with the campaign tactics of Gephardt, who has said that Dean would not protect Social Security and Medicare."

The AP notes of Dean's remarks yesterday that they "marked a shift in strategy for Dean, who had been behaving like a front-runner and attempting to shrug off the daily barbs from his rivals.  He told reporters last week that he would remain above the fray."

The Des Moines Register says Dean returned "to the Washington outsider themes that fueled his rise to front-runner status...  But with only seven days until the caucuses launch the 2004 nominating season, a healthy number of Democrats in the Pella audience were still unsure whom they'll back and were considering Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry."

The Boston Globe adds that in "another sign of Dean trying to seize the agenda rather than respond to his rivals' attacks, his campaign staff organized a late-afternoon news conference in which the antiwar candidate railed against the Bush administration" over Paul O'Neill's charges.

Another AP story notes how Dean "is using criticism from his Democratic rivals, Republicans and GOP-leaning interest groups to take in even more cash.  He collected about $1 million last week, spokesman David Carle said Monday."

The Los Angeles Times says Dean "apparently has bought more television advertising in Iowa than any previous presidential candidate...  His total is likely to exceed $2.7 million by Monday, when Iowa Democrats hold their caucuses.  Although exact figures for previous campaigns aren't available, many analysts agree that his spending is a record."

Embed Becky Diamond says Kerry is drawing larger crowds -- averaging 200 people per event yesterday.  At his last event, in Muscatine, Kerry arrived one hour late and it was standing room only for some of 300 attendees.

Embed Angela Miles reports Moseley Braun may be in South Carolina on caucus night because she has received several requests from churches to speak on MLK Day.

New Hampshire (1/27)
The Boston Globe notes how "Clark has executed a powerful flanking operation in New Hampshire that has pushed Kerry into third place in recent polls.  With Kerry facing two critical, possibly decisive tests of his candidacy in the next two weeks... his homestretch strategy of lavishing personal time on Iowa has created vulnerabilities in New Hampshire that are worrying some advisers in the Kerry camp."

While Kerry may feel most immediately threatened by Clark in New Hampshire, the Manchester Union Leader points out Dean's new tax-cut proposal might have been in response to Clark, as well. 

More 2004 notes (D)
The AP gets Clark saying there's nothing contradictory about his remark that a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda existed.  "'It would be naive to think the Iraqi intelligence agency never tracked anyone from al Qaeda, but that's a far cry from saying there's any relationship between Saddam Hussein and 9/11,' he said.  'I've always said there's no relationship.'"

On board his plane yesterday, Clark said "the Bush administration, distracted by plans to invade Iraq, discounted intelligence on Al Qaeda handed over by outgoing Clinton administration officials in 2000, leaving security gaps that made it easier for Osama bin Laden's terrorist agents to strike on Sept. 11, 2001," says the Boston Globe.   "Clark's accusation that Bush bears responsibility for the Sept. 11 attacks has increasingly become the national security centerpiece of Clark's campaign, with Clark going beyond standard Democratic critiques of the Iraq war to confront Bush on the event that has come to define his presidency."

Embed Marisa Buchanan notes that at a Dallas fundraiser last night, Clark, who voted for Nixon twice, included Nixon in his stump speech: "I think we're dealing with the most closed, imperialistic, nasty Administration in living memory.  They even put Richard Nixon to shame.  They are a threat to what this nation stands for!"

Asked by Buchanan in an interview, "What do you think about before you go to bed?" Clark responded: "I usually say a prayer."  Clark also said Bush "misled this country, I think when the American people understand it -- they'll come to a boiling point and throw him out.  It's not just on the war... in Iraq, it's on his lack of effort with the war on terror.  It's the money going back to the wealthy.  It's the stealth cuts in the environment.  It's the neglect of his duties as president of the United States.  He is not dutiful in the sense of following through on what the president of the United States should be doing."

On his own "20-year vision" speech: "I really worked on that speech, I wrote a lot of it myself.  We were up very late that night; I got up early in the morning to finish it.  That was my speech.  I want to help this country dream great dreams and think big thoughts, cause I can see how far we can come.  And I want get the dialogue in this campaign lifted up beyond the mundane and political cut and slash because I don't think that's what Americans should be thinking about.  I think we oughta be looking to lift this country up..."

The New York Times has Sharpton saying, despite his tough words for Dean on Sunday, that he doesn't want minority voters to refuse to cast votes for Dean should he win the nomination. 

The Columbia, SC State says "Dean is likely to get a pass from South Carolina voters for failing to appoint a single black to his Cabinet during 12 years as governor of Vermont, several black leaders and political observers said Monday..."  The story notes Dean has spent money on advertising in African-American media outlets.

A Wall Street Journal editorial page writer dubs Dean's efforts "thus far to win credibility in the 'hood" as "awkward and crude."

The New York Post digs up one more fact about Dean's record on race in Vermont: that it "took until 2001 for Vermont to celebrate Martin Luther King's birthday as a full-fledged holiday and shut state offices in his honor...  Vermont recognized an unofficial King holiday in 1986 (before Dean became governor) but state offices stayed open. In 2000, the state Legislature threatened to pass a law mandating that offices shut unless Dean and the unions cut a deal.  The deal took effect in 2001."

The Washington Times reports, "Many South Carolina Democrats believe presidential hopeful Howard Dean's promise to talk about his relationship with Jesus is a calculated ploy to pander to Southerners - in particular blacks - participating in next month's South Carolina primary."

The New York Times examines how Dean's wife, Dr. Judith Steinberg, is "invisible" on the campaign trail: "I think a lot of couples are like us, where they have two career-couples, and both careers are very important to the individuals,' Dr. Steinberg, 50, said in an interview this fall.  'Each individual has to do what works for her. What works best for me, and what I'm best at, is being a doctor.'"

"'The whole thing has just struck me as a little odd,' said Myra Gutin, who has taught a course on first ladies at Rider University in New Jersey for 20 years. 'There may be some voters out there who say, "well, why isn't she here?  Why isn't she supporting him?"  It's the most outward manifestation of support.'"

The Los Angeles Times, in its Dean profile, covers Dean's rise to governor after the death of the incumbent, noting how Dean "hyperventilated" upon hearing the news, then "drew on the armor of self-possession he used with patients," and went on conducting a check-up.  USA Today looks at Candidate Dean through the prism of his chosen profession; a handy sidebar lists other physician-politicians.

Edwards embed Dugald McConnell reports Edwards revealed Monday that he already has a list of potential running mates. Asked by a girl in Perry if he might choose a woman running mate, he said, "There are women who I have actively under consideration on a list I am considering for vice president."

• Monday, January 12, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaida
Carrying us into this week:

• Debate over President Bush's immigration and space proposals, the latter of which he lays out today, and both of which get cast as State of the Union build-up
• Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's charge that Bush wanted Saddam Hussein from the get-go, living for another news cycle because of O'Neill's turn on 60 Minutes and the book release tomorrow
• Fallout from last night's MSNBC Democratic presidential debate in Iowa and the notion, fueled by the latest round of polls (though remember the difficulties in polling caucusgoers) and his shaky debate performance, that Dean's Iowa lead is slipping.  Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry all stick around Iowa today, while Clark continues to have New Hampshire to himself.

Dean over the weekend, per embed Felix Schein: "You know something interesting, when it was two years out, time passed really fast.  This is the slowest week of my life."

The Des Moines Register on last night's Brown and Black Forum on MSNBC: "Dean has been roundly praised in previous debates for his ability to withstand attack after attack from his competitors for the nomination.  But during Sunday's debate... he seemed uncertain and nervous when the Rev. Al Sharpton grilled him about his record of appointing minorities to top positions during his time as governor."

In short, beyond answering that Vermont has a very small minority population and that a number of minority Members of Congress have endorsed him, Dean seemed ill-prepared to respond.

Also from the Register: "Dean also appeared to stumble during a segment when he was allowed to ask one of his fellow candidates a question.  Instead, he chose to ask Ako Abdul-Samad, a member of the Des Moines school board, a question.  When instructed by co-moderator Lester Holt that the question to Abdul-Samad was not allowed, Dean chose not to ask any of the other candidates a question."  (We'd note that the Dean campaign did not inform MSNBC beforehand of its desire to question an audience member, and such a move would have broken with the agreed-upon format.)

Embed Tom Llamas says the headline for the Sharpton campaign coming out of last night's debate was that Dean approached Sharpton during the debate and acknowledged Sharpton was right about his record on race.  "He reached out.  He said you know you are right... we need to talk about it.  He reached out and that is the right thing to do, rather than to have an apologist.  You can't apologize for a record," said Sharpton.  "If I'm going to challenge Bush's record I want to know those that are on the stage with me I understand their record."  When asked by another reporter to explain the exchange, Sharpton said: "He told me during one of the breaks let's talk and we talked.  He said let's talk.  He said your criticism is fair let me explain it to you let's talk about it, which is the right thing to do," said Sharpton.  Llamas notes that en route back to DC, Sharpton and his campaign questioned Moseley Braun's motives for defending Dean while attacking Sharpton and Edwards; Sharpton said he found it strange.

And Llamas reports that as Sharpton campaigned at a DC Metro stop at 6:45 am this morning, in advance of tomorrow's non-binding DC primary, four people, not together, all African-American, came up and thanked him for what he told Dean at the debate.  One woman said, "You got him on the cabinet," and another said, "At the debate, way to keep them honest."

Also, tonight, MoveOn announces its contest winner.  – Boston Globe

SOTU build-up
Calling the immigration and space proposals warm-ups to the State of the Union, the New York Times says "Bush has inherited his father's syntax but not his cautious goals from a less traumatic time.  As last week proved again, this president has embraced not only 'the vision thing' but the idea of a very big presidency: big ideas, big costs, big gambles.  More than many presidents, historians say, Mr. Bush seems to understand how to use the powers of the office and to see the political benefits in risk.  He may leave the details to others, but when backed into a corner, he doubles his bets."

The Washington Times notes, though, that when "Bush laid out his principles on a major policy initiative in the past, he often ended up signing a bill that left out key parts of what he had requested, or that compromised on basic issues."  The story lists as examples No Child Left Behind, the energy bill, and the Medicare law.  "Claire Buchan, a White House spokeswoman, said the president in each case worked with Congress 'to forge legislation that met his principles and delivered results on behalf of the American people.'"

The Wall Street Journal predicts the space plan "will be hobbled by politics, because it is early in an election year in which Bush aides are scrambling to turn the debate away from the Iraq war.  Even some of Mr. Bush's biggest cheerleaders are wary. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R., Tenn.) says he is unsure how the effort will be squeezed into the current budget picture."

The Boston Globe rounds up Administration officials' Sunday-show insistence that a new space program would not undermine Bush's plan to cut the deficit.  "In previewing Bush's official announcement, to be made this week, White House aides did not discuss the costs of the project."

More 2004 notes (R)
Depending on which advisor you ask, President Bush is either "wholly absorbed by the race," or "far more engaged at this point than his re-election staff likes to admit," said the Sunday New York Times.  

The Wall Street Journal lays out the economic advantages this President Bush has over his father, explaining: "Though the younger Bush also presided over a recession, it ended sooner than his father's did, has been followed by more-rapid growth, and occurred at a time of lower interest rates and greater underlying economic vitality and public optimism."

"Yet the current president also has weak spots in his economic record that Democratic presidential contenders are spotlighting as they begin competing for their party's nomination in Iowa and New Hampshire this month.  The same health-care concerns that haunted the first President Bush are re-emerging, after having eased a bit in the 1990s: Insurance premiums are rising at the same rapid pace, and the percentage of Americans lacking insurance has returned to early 1990s levels.  Debt and bankruptcy are more prevalent among middle-class families than they were back then."

"And the job market has by some measures performed worse under the son than it did under the father."

The New York Times explains that the highly watched unemployment figures "greatly understate the number of people who would like to be working."  Economists say "that the labor force has changed, and the official data no longer easily capture these changes, particularly the sharp rise in low-wage employment.  The disparities in the numbers are giving politicians unusual leeway to make conflicting claims about the employment picture."

"The Democratic presidential candidates, for example, heaped scorn on the Bush administration for the almost nonexistent job creation in December.  The president, on the other hand, pointed to the drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.7 percent from 5.9 percent in November, as 'a positive sign the economy is getting better.'  And the chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, N. Gregory Mankiw, said in an interview that the official job count showing 1,000 new jobs in December was not accurate by itself."

"In challenging the reliability of the official count, Mr. Mankiw sought to water down its message, which is that 2.3 million jobs have disappeared since President Bush took office in January 2001."

Former Bush EPA chief and New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman (R) expresses her unease as a moderate about her place within the GOP in a New York Times op-ed: Whitman notes Democrats have similar problems, but warns that being the majority party doesn't mean the GOP has a lock on the electorate.

According to a new poll, "U.S. Jews would overwhelmingly support any major Democratic candidate over President Bush if the election were held today," says the New York Daily News.  But the New York Sun notes the poll shows Bush faring better with Jews than he did three years ago.

The Washington Post looks at anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist and the grassroots assistance he lends to the Administration and Bush's re-election campaign.  "'He is an impresario of the center-right,' the president's strategist, Karl Rove, said in an interview.  Rove said Norquist's activists helped President Bush push trade promotion, tax cuts, judicial nominees and tort reform, among other items. 'They've been out there slogging for us in the trenches.'"

Politics of education
Noting how many of the Democratic presidential candidates voted for No Child Left Behind and how almost all of them are now attacking it, the New York Times says the "debate over education in this year's campaign has in many ways resulted in a strange role reversal."

"Republicans who for years argued that the federal Department of Education should be abolished are championing legislation that imposes a strict testing regimen and penalizes school districts for failure.  Democrats, traditionally associated with federal programs and mandates, are arguing for more state and local freedom."

"Though some groups close to Democrats, like teachers' unions, have fundamental problems with the legislation, many Democrats say the party abandons the law at its peril.  The centrist Democratic Leadership Council last week warned that backing away from the act was conceding leadership on education to Mr. Bush."

"The candidates have tried to meet this challenge by arguing that the law needs to be changed and financed better, not repealed.  But many Democrats say they have fallen short in explaining how to do that."

"Until the last few weeks, the Democratic candidates have criticized the education law mainly on the grounds that the budgets from the Bush administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have not provided as much money as promised in the act...  But more recently, the attacks have sharpened to focus on the law's requirements for testing, standards and achievement.  The criticism reflects complaints from teachers' unions, but also groups that supported the law."

The story notes Lieberman "has been the most supportive of the law, arguing that the problems are natural growing pains," while Dean "has been its harshest critic."

DC (1/13)
Embed Angela Miles reports Moseley Braun says she will not be going to DC for the primary on Tuesday and would not say why.  She also says she is not certain where she will be the night of the primary.  Miles notes that unlike Sharpton, Moseley Braun cannot afford radio ad time.  

The last pre-caucus debate
The New York Times: "The debate revealed no major new differences among the candidates, and for the most part allowed them to use their last joint televised appearance to restate the themes most of them have been sounding in the state for more than a year.  But the strains of relentless campaigning were evident in their hoarse voices, sagging faces and short tempers."

"After the debate, Dr. Dean was the only candidate who did not appear to discuss his performance with reporters, and his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, uncharacteristically cut short an exchange with journalists eager to get his post-debate take."

The Washington Post: "Beyond the gamesmanship of the debate, the evening underscored a genuine question facing Dean if he retains his early lead in polls and fundraising, and becomes the nominee: Can a Democrat who has little history working African American constituencies, and whose campaign to date has been powered far more by college-educated whites, generate the enthusiasm necessary to bring out the base Democratic vote?"

"Dean shrugged off the barbs from Sharpton and others, saying, 'I believe I have more endorsements from both the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus than any other candidate on this stage.'"

The Boston Globe notes the discussion of race could have an impact on South Carolina's February 3 Democratic primary.

The New York Post analysis of Dean's performance: "It was a performance that could only fuel jitters among Democrats; if he isn't ready to debate Al Sharpton, how can he out debate George Bush?"

MSNBC.com's Curry also looks at Dean's payroll tax-cut plan and the debate it sparked at the debate.

Embed Dugald McConnell suggests the debate last night took on additional importance for Edwards after his Des Moines Register endorsement, since potential caucus-goers were checking him out and the endorsement gave him more visibility.  Elizabeth Edwards said there wasn't much to say about the debate.  Edwards himself told McConnell, "I thought there was a fair amount of sniping going on tonight, but on the whole I was able to focus on what I want to do for the country."  McConnell also says that on Sunday, several people told him they came out to see Edwards because of the Register endorsement, to check him out and see what the fuss was about.  In Altoona, the campaign said 512 people signed in.

Embed Becky Diamond notes Kerry was battling a cold heading into the debate.  She says Kerry used populist themes again, trying to tap into anger among Democrats about unfair workplaces and the disparity they feel in the workplace and in society.  Post-debate, Kerry told a gaggle of press about the debate: "It had its moments of heated exchanges.  I would have liked to have been able to keep the target on George Bush and have it be a little bit more about the real issues and not some of these confrontations.  But all in all I think we had a good discussion about some of the issues."

The New York Daily News reports: "Before the debate, Kerry, who some pundits think is in a race with Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina for third place in Iowa, tried to take some of the wind out of Dean's endorsement from popular Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin on NBC's 'Meet the Press'...  He accused Harkin of endorsing Dean only because he thinks he will win.  Kerry produced what he said was a Harkin E-mail that has him calling Gephardt his real choice.  The Harkin camp didn't dispute Kerry's assertion."

Embed Karin Caifa notes how Kucinich gave up his usual debate focus on Iraq to try to make a broader appeal to voters on issues like health care and tax cuts.  When listing "first things first" for a Kucinich Administration in his first response, he said first would be "cancel the tax cuts to the rich," followed by "get out of Iraq" second, and he directed his question to Moseley Braun rather than to Dean.  Still, Caifa says, he told Chris Matthews he'd mentioned Iraq at least five times.  Kucinich was excited about the outcome of the debate, surprised at the amount of attention he received from the national media afterward.  "We have had a tremendous response following this debate," he told Caifa before exiting the spin room.  "Something must be happening here."

Embed Dionne Scott points out that Lieberman intended to ask his opponents to sign a letter to President Bush demanding he quickly and fully fund election reform law.  Scott says that Lieberman's apparent ramble was all actually related to election reform, but the long road he took to get there sucked out whatever wind he may have received from the gimmick.  In the spin room afterward, Scott asked Lieberman what happened.  He chuckled and offered a little self-deprecation: "If you thought my remarks were long in posing the question, wait until you hear my first State of the Union address.  It's going to be memorable."  He added that he thought the issue of election reform was an important one and that he intended the letter to be a unifying statement by the Democrats to Bush.  Lieberman said the letter was circulated to the other candidates and that he already had seen Kucinich sign it.

Still, Scott notes, this was classic Lieberman and may speak to some voters' and pundits' perceptions that he's not fiery enough to widely appeal to Democratic primary voters.  Frequently, he takes several minutes and/or paragraphs to directly answer questions posed by voters.  Scott says some voters have told her they appreciate Lieberman's depth, while others have said Lieberman's delivery is the reason they will support another candidate.

Embed Angela Miles says Moseley Braun appeared pleased with her performance at the debate, although she did say that having the candidates questions interspersed throughout the debate became a bit awkward.  She disputes the suggestions that she showed any special support for Dean when she called Edwards out on calling Dean a hypocrite.  As far as her comments aimed at Sharpton, Miles reports, Braun says if you want to start an argument on race in this country, it's not real hard to do -- just throw out whatever and folks get mad at each other, and it hasn't been constructive.  Braun says the bigger question is how you build bridges and bring people together.  Once again, Miles notes, few reporters were interested in interviewing Braun post-debate.

More Iowa (1/19)
 "Computers and telephone lines, not to mention human beings, have failed to deliver the information needed to determine a winner in a prompt fashion for the nation's first step on the road to the White House," the Chicago Tribune reports. "As the world watches next Monday evening, the pressure will bear down on Andrew Brown and Dave Vogelaar, two technology gurus hired by the Iowa Democratic Party to make sure caucus results are funneled from 1,993 precincts to a convention center in Des Moines."

Embed Becky Diamond notes Kerry has a rally on the steps of the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines today to highlight the number of state legislators who have endorsed him: 27 so far, according to the campaign -- more than Gephardt and Dean combined.

The New York Times looks at the difference between the candidates' TV ads in Iowa -- "an exercise in tact" -- and the "body blows" issued by direct mail.  "The heavy dose of hard-hitting mailings, primarily from Mr. Gephardt and Dr. Dean, who lead in the polls here, has created a two-tiered media campaign.  The one on television adheres to Iowans' oft-stated distaste for negative campaigning.  The one in Democratic mailboxes plays to what strategists hope are the base political instincts of the undecided without gaining too much notice from news media referees, who could amplify the negativity."

Screaming to become a TV story?  The Des Moines Register covers Camp Dean in Iowa:.

New Hampshire (1/27)
Gephardt on Dean in New Hampshire, per embed Priya David: "Oddly, I don't think he gets much out of New Hampshire because he's been so far ahead, it's assumed."

While the other candidates were debating last night in Iowa, Clark "had New Hampshire to himself," PoliticsNH.com notes.  "The question and answer session gave Clark the opportunity to show off his foreign policy skills compared with front-runner Howard Dean.  'I know (Dean), and I like him.  But I've spent a lifetime in public service negotiating peace agreements and cease fires.'  As he likened his foreign policy experience to major league baseball, Clark sought to distinguish himself from the rest of the pack of candidates.  'I'm the only one in this race who's pitched in a major league game and thrown a 95-mile-an-hour pitch.'"

Walter Shapiro tails Karen Hicks, who is running Dean's New Hampshire campaign.  "While most top Dean staffers have relocated to Iowa... Hicks has been entrusted with New Hampshire with minimal outside interference.  But in conversations Saturday at the Dean national headquarters in Burlington, Vt., I picked up a hint of nervousness about the sudden rise in New Hampshire polls of Wesley Clark."

More 2004 notes (D).
The Washington Post analyzes the Democratic candidates' plans for tax reform.  "One by one, candidates are embracing fundamental changes to the tax system -- from eliminating the need for tax returns for most Americans to consolidating the bewildering plethora of tax credits -- likely making the issue unavoidable during the general election campaign."

The New York Post reports Bill Clinton is making fundraising calls for Clark.  "'Bill is said to be personally involved and it's believed he's begun making money calls on Clark's behalf,' one of [New York] state's best-connected Democratic activists told The Post."

"'Word out of the Clinton camp is that Bill and Hillary think this is a key moment for the Clark campaign,' the activist continued."

The Boston Globe got Dean harshing on a GOP questioner yesterday.

Edwards is still savoring the endorsement he received from the Des Moines Register, the Washington Post says.  "'This is a huge moment in this campaign -- we have extraordinary momentum,' the North Carolina senator told a standing-room-only crowd at the Heartland Senior Services Center in Ames.  'On January 19, we're gonna shock the world.'"

Edwards also crowed about the endorsement on the Today Show.  "It's a big deal," he told Matt Lauer.  "I think it's a huge stamp of approval."  He went on to say, "I can challenge George Bush everywhere in America.  I can challenge him in the North, in the West, and in the South, where I'm from."

Serendipitously, Edwards gets his five-link New York Times write-up today.

And the Washington Post runs an editorial assessing Edwards' candidacy, noting the positive campaign he is running, in addition to his growing confidence and thoughtfulness.  But: "That apparent deepening helps but does not entirely allay concerns about his inexperience."

The Los Angeles Times profiles Gephardt and the lessons he learned from his defeat in 1988.

Embed Priya reports Mark Olson of the JayHawks has a new band, the Creek Dippers, who have signed on with Gephardt.  David says Olson was channel-surfing during a gig in some major city when he heard Gephardt giving a speech on health care.  The speech resonated with him and he wrote Gephardt a letter asking if he could help.  Olson didn't hear anything for awhile, then suddenly got a message this past Tuesday asking if he could be in Cedar Rapids on Friday to play a rally.  David says he grabbed his fellow musicians and they jumped in van and drove from Joshua Tree, CA to Cedar Rapids in time to play the gig.  He says they're going to ride along as far as they can.

Embed Karin Caifa reports 15 Kucitizens headed east from Santa Cruz, CA five days ago, picking folks up in Utah, New Mexico and Colorado.  The road trip, which will next make its next stop at Kucinich HQ in Cleveland before heading to New Hampshire for two weeks, is an effort to get the message out to younger voters about the campaign.  Caifa boarded the bus outside the Polk County Convention Center in downtown Des Moines and says organic macaroni and cheese (though it smelled like, um, something else) was cooking on a makeshift stove, and things were a little chilly because the bus has no heat.  The vehicle was retired as a school bus in southern California, according to its owner, and it runs on biodiesel fuels, including soybean oil.

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Graham: Sotomayor OK 'barring meltdown'   Obama: Don't bet against us on health care Sotomayor hearings have a broader purpose GOP: Sotomayor must assure her neutrality  NYT: Palin's route to resignation   Officials: CIA program targeted al-Qaida Obama savors Ghana moment A.G. Holder considering torture probe Obama urges patience on stimulus plan Officials push for health care in spite of delay Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: