Explainer: Housing's 10 least underwater areas
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Getty Images file
Want happy neighbors? Go where there’s home equity. Places like Pittsburgh, Yakima, Wash., and Hartford, Conn. — smaller metros where homeowners are the least “underwater” on their mortgages.
Call it “treading water.”
Back in the day, sunny cities in Florida, casual coastal communities in California, desert hot spots like Phoenix and Las Vegas, and creative class towns in the Pacific Northwest were all the real estate rage. Because of the “underwater” phenomenon, not any more. Underwater status is defined as a homeowner owing more on their mortgage than their home could sell for on the current market.
“It’s definitely an important indicator of how well a market is doing,” says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, the Seattle-based real estate data site. “Underwater status can spur foreclosures and strategic defaults. It also suppresses housing demand because current owners can’t sell and are trapped.”
According to Zillow.com, 21.5 percent of the nation’s single-family homes with a mortgage were underwater at the end of second quarter 2010, down from a peak of over 23 percent a year earlier. (Zillow.com estimates 60 percent of all U.S. homes are mortgaged, with the rest owned outright). The two major factors that contribute to being underwater are home value declines and the size of a home buyer’s down payment, Humphries notes. A larger down payment combined with smaller price decline in some markets can prevent a homeowner from going underwater. Of course in the case of disastrous markets like Phoenix down payment wouldn't matter much.
Another measure impacting a local market’s underwater status is a market’s “transactional velocity” — or the rate of transactions per year. Even in markets that have seen major home price declines like Detroit, Humphries says, a slower-moving market where fewer properties change hand each year may indicate that owners have more history — and thus, more equity—in their homes, and thus may have a higher likelihood of escaping an underwater situation.
These ten communities all have less than 8.4 percent underwater status among single-family homes. While several have seen home values tumble precipitously from recent-year peaks — Boston (down 16.8 percent), Cape Cod (down 22.7 percent), and Springfield, Mass (down 12 percent) — all ten of these markets have shown annualized growth over the past decade.
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1. Pittsburgh, Pa.
Istock / Getty Images file
Underwater: 5.6 percent
Second quarter median price: $107,164
Peak time and price: July 2008, $112,629
Fall from peak: -5.1 percentPittsburgh has had pleasantly stable ride during the national real estate meltdown. Over a ten-year period Pittsburgh homes showed an annualized increase of 3.1 percent, well in line with what is normal for a healthy market. Pittsburgh employers include many government and “eds and meds” employers, including Carnegie Mellon, University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center which together collectively employ 100,000. According to Moody’s Analytics, Pittsburgh housing remains affordable relative to other Pennsylvania metropolitan areas. Its employment declines weren’t as steep as other markets, and growth in education/medical as well as the energy sector should keep the market healthy until local employment rebounds to pre-recession levels, which believe could happen during in 2012.
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2. Tulsa, Okla.
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Underwater: 6.1 percent
Second quarter median price: $117,135
Peak month: June 2010
Fall from peak: 0 percentTulsa has delivered a “lukewarm” recovery, according to Moody’s, but its recovery suggests “self-sustaining growth” in the future. The city’s low costs, quality of life, and strong transit system are boons for livability. The city has mortgage delinquency rates well below national averages, and its home prices have risen modestly, but steadily, year over year, without major dips like other more volatile markets. Over the longer term, the city is expected to grow alongside the rest of the nation.
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3. Oklahoma City, Okla.
Paul Hellstern / Associated Press
Underwater: 6.1 percent
Second quarter median price: $119,257
Peak month: June 2010
Fall from peak: 0 percentOklahoma City didn’t see a drastic rise in home values like other cities did, but on the flip side, it suffered very little from the downturn. The city’s life sciences and IT sector are positive for the real estate market, and locals enjoy a high standard of living and quality of life relative to locals in other markets, around the state, according to Moody’s.
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4. Cape Cod area, Mass.
Julia Cumes / AP file
Underwater: 6.9 percent
Second quarter median price: $318,026
Peak month: August 2005
Fall from peak: -22.7 percentCape Cod may be among the many New England communities that benefited from higher down payments which can keep the contagion of negative equity at bay, according to Humphries, the Zillow economist. Cape Cod's Barnstable can expect benefits to its housing market as regional tourism continues to drive the local economy and as commuters to other cities such as Boston consider living in or spending more time in the area, according to Moody’s.
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5. Yakima, Wash.
Getty Images file
Underwater: 7.2 percent
Second quarter median price: $137,586
Peak month: September 2008
Fall from peak: -3.7 percentYakima’s agricultural roots and own housing dynamics have placed its market on a different schedule for recovery than other U.S. communities, according to Moody’s. While an overgrowth of hops crops may leave some agricultural businesses vulnerable, and lumber oversupply may mean that industry is slow until 2011, the city has nonetheless already exited the recession and is enjoying a resilient housing market.
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6. Springfield, Mass.
Getty Images file
Underwater: 7.2 percent
Second quarter median price: $190,256
Peak month: June 2006
Fall from peak: -12 percentThe Springfield, Mass., area shows short-term promise but may be lackluster over the long-term scenario, according to Moody’s. While the area is less expensive for commercial tenants than nearby Boston or Hartford, and is thus creating some jobs in professional services and financial organizations, it may not have sufficient growth industries or a sufficient population influx to counter locals moving away, Moody’s says.
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7. Lancaster, Pa.
Getty Images file
Underwater: 8 percent
Second quarter median price: $178,064
Peak month: August 2007
Fall from peak: -7.2 percentLancaster has recovered quickly from the downturn, but may lag the nation next year due to declines in low-tech manufacturing businesses. The city’s industrial roots and below-average educational achievement could also be negatives. But it is less expensive than Philadelphia and potentially an alternative location for cost-conscious employers considering relocation an hour-and-a-half away. Job growth will also come from residential construction and other sectors, according to Moody’s. If nothing else, for the time being housing appears to be stabilizing more rapidly than it is elsewhere in Pennsylvania, or the U.S., according to Moody’s.
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8. Hartford, Conn.
Getty Images file
Underwater: 8.3 percent
Second quarter median price: $224,393
Peak month: July 2006
Fall from peak: -9.9 percentHartford, home of much of the American insurance industry, “appears set” for a market recovery, according to Moody’s. Home prices appear to have hit bottom over the past year and a lack of new residential construction suggests that the market is undersupplied. That means despite some foreclosures, household net worth and home equity are in good shape and thus “strategic defaults” — i.e. just walking away from a mortgage — are less likely. While employment is expected to grow slowly, population growth is expected and the community is faring better than others in New England, according to Moody’s.
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9. Boston, Mass.
Getty Images file
Underwater: 8.3 percent
Second quarter median price: $331,568
Peak month: July 2005
Fall from peak: -16.8 percentThough it’s an academic and technology hub, Boston is also an expensive city that could suffer from a second, small housing price decline, according to Moody’s. On the plus side, the largest city on this list is expected to see above-average population growth. Its biotech sector is healthy, and the area’s medical and healthcare sector could be helped by the passage of healthcare reform. In addition, Beantown home prices may rebound quickly even if they continue to fall nationwide.
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10. Utica, N.Y.
Michael Okoniewski / AP
Underwater: 8.4 percent
Second quarter median price: $99,710
Peak month: July 2007
Fall from peak: -5 percentUtica suffered a “mild recession” and is experiencing a proportionately mild recovery. The region is expected to recover by late 2011, faster than the rest of New York state as a whole, according to Moody’s. Major employers in healthcare and government may cushion the local economy, but may not help it grow. Over the long term, the region may not beat the national economy. But some employers, like Rome Labs, may benefit from increased investment, according to Moody’s.
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