First Read

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(First Read will take a holiday hiatus until January 5^th.  While First Read is on vacation, follow all of the day's political developments in MSNBC.com's politics section, www.politics.msnbc.com.)

• Tuesday, December 23, 2003 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaida
Beyond the morning's scant political news, our last missive of 2003 is about what you have to look forward to come January 2004, both before and in between the January 19 Iowa caucuses, the January 20 State of the Union, and the January 27 New Hampshire primary.

The story: Will the improving economic outlook, the capture of Saddam Hussein and apparent end to Libya's nuclear weapons program, and the raised terror threat level change the course of the Democratic nominating contest from without, i.e., through public opinion, between now and New Year's? New Washington Post/ABC numbers show Bush benefiting from "growing optimism about the economy and a spike in support for going to war in Iraq." The poll also shows Dean "surging ahead" in the Democratic contest but "faring badly" against Bush "both in a hypothetical trial heat and on who is trusted to handle both national security and domestic issues."

"The poll findings... also underscore the concern within the party that, because of the heavily front-loaded primary and caucus calendar, a Democratic nominee may effectively be picked before party activists outside a few early states have had a chance to evaluate the candidates and participate in the decision."

The Washington Times, noting Dean's lack of comment on Libya: "Libya's decision to give up its weapons of mass destruction is making it harder for Democrats such as Howard Dean to disparage President Bush's war against Iraq, which prompted Libya's move."

Will Dean's Democratic rivals' charges of foreign policy inexperience and giving tax breaks to Enron slow his momentum from within? Team Gephardt e-mailed a hypothetical "Ghost of Christmas Future" description of a Nominee Dean getting hammered on Enron, Medicare and NAFTA in a fall 2004 debate. The Kerry camp e-mailed "Dean flubs on Israel." What the Dean campaign chose to respond to in writing yesterday: Clark's insistence that Dean asked him to be his running mate.

Will a single candidate emerge as an alternative to Dean? Further fueling the Clark theory, the Boston Globe says the prospects for a Dean-Clark ticket seem to be fading as "the two candidates are now locked in a bitter dispute over that very issue, increasingly directing attacks at one another and seemingly rejecting any chance they might work together to defeat President Bush."

"Clark, whose campaign has developed a solid fund-raising machine, is one of the few candidates other than Dean to continually grab headlines... Clark is also a Southerner, which could undercut Dean's bid in key Southern states. Unlike Dean, Clark has had a long career in international affairs. And Clark has also shown visible -- if incremental -- improvement in New Hampshire, home of the Jan. 27 primary."

Embed Marisa Buchanan reports Clark just added a 9:00 am visit to the Oklahoma City bombing memorial to his schedule for the day. The New York Times covers how Clark used the raising of the terror alert to blast the Administration for devoting resources to fighting a war against Iraq.

Polls: NBC and The Wall Street Journal will poll in January before the caucuses and SOTU. Junkies can feast on forthcoming MSNBC/Reuters Zogby tracking polls in Iowa; New Hampshire; February 3 states Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico and South Carolina; and later on, in Michigan and Wisconsin. The first track will be released on Sunday, January 11 on Meet the Press; ensuing tracks will be released on NBC and MSNBC at 7:00 am. The polls also will be posted on MSNBC.com.

Debates and Forums: The Des Moines Register hosts its debate on January 4, featuring all candidates but Clark and Sharpton (no network sponsor/feed to be made available). The NPR (radio-only) Iowa debate is on January 6. The MSNBC Brown and Black Forum (debate) takes place in Des Moines on January 11, featuring all candidates but Clark. The ABC/WMUR New Hampshire debate is on January 22. The New Hampshire Democratic Party dinner is on January 24. The MSNBC South Carolina Democratic Party debate takes place in Greenville, SC on January 29, followed the next morning by a Dialogue with America's Families Democratic candidate forum, focusing on family issues, with Tom Joyner in Columbia, SC.

Money: December 31 marks the end of the fourth fundraising quarter. Dean and Clark are likely to trumpet their totals while their rivals hope their more mixed results are overtaken by other events. Our friends at the Center for Responsive Politics hold a seminar in DC on January 7, on the impact of McCain-Feingold on the MO's of the parties and independent groups.

First Read will return on Monday, January 5. Happy holidays and thanks to all our readers.

Politics of information
For the second time in a week, the Washington Post spotlights the Bush Administration's penchant for secrecy: "The administration has been unusually successful keeping its policy deliberations out of public view, and millions of government documents -- including many historical records previously available -- have been removed from the public domain."

The Wall Street Journal reports, "The Bush administration released a pair of much-awaited reports on the quality of American health care" -- the National Healthcare Quality report and the National Healthcare Disparities report -- "after extensive revisions that made the findings more upbeat than some experts thought justified. The two studies, produced by a research arm of the Department of Health and Human Services, went through numerous drafts and were exhaustively reviewed within HHS, officials said. In several cases, language included in drafts prepared this summer was toned down, emphasizing improvements or challenges rather than problems that afflict the quality of care in public and private health systems in the U.S."

Medicare
The Washington Post revisits GOP Rep. Nick Smith's bribery allegations against the House GOP leadership along with reports of lobbyist heavy-handedness in the Republican full-court press to pass the Medicare bill.

The Wall Street Journal has a two-fer on the Medicare bill's Health Savings Accounts: one report on the Treasury Department's announcement that contributions to the accounts will not be taxed, which also notes that there are "hurdles for people to qualify for the accounts;" and an editorial calling the accounts the "saving grace" of the bill, and "an enormous improvement over most existing health insurance options, especially for the individual and small business market."

More 2004 notes (R)
The Los Angeles Times previews, then picks apart the Administration's "new Big Idea for the election year - speeding the nation's transformation into an 'ownership society.'"

"The president highlighted the notion last week in signing a bill to help 40,000 low-income families annually make down payments on homes... As he spoke, Treasury officials tinkered with proposals for a new generation of tax-break-driven savings accounts, administration allies in Congress pushed plans to partially privatize Social Security and GOP activists pored over voting data that they claim shows the formation of a new - and conservative - 'investor class.'"

"But before the 'ownership society' takes on an election-year life of its own, it is worth examining a few key struts to the argument that this is what America is, or could shortly become."

"Claim 1: We're all capitalists now. The single most cited statistic in the ownership society argument comes from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. It shows that the percentage of families who own stock has rocketed in the last two decades from less than 20% in 1983 to more than 50% in 2001. The implication is that the country is already well on the way to a new, privatized future and the president's proposals would simply hasten the process."

"But there are some important caveats to the advocates' case. The years they pick to measure the recent ownership trend coincide with one of the most powerful bull markets of the 20th century. If ever there was a time during which stock holdings should soar, it would be then. In addition, most polls suggest that it is only direct ownership of stock, and not indirect ownership through mutual funds and the like, that has much of an effect on people's political attitudes..."

"Finally, wealth - whether of stock, houses, cars or almost anything else of material value - is spectacularly and increasingly concentrated among the top tier of households. So too, arguably, would be the benefits of the president's proposals."

"Claim 2: The road to the ownership society is paved with tax breaks. Chief among the proposals that Bush is apt to push in the coming campaign will be two tax-protected savings accounts that the administration unveiled, but quickly dropped, this year. The first is a new 'retirement savings account' to which individuals could contribute $7,500 a year and from which they could withdraw funds tax-free after age 58. The second is a 'lifetime savings account' to which people could contribute similar amounts and from which they could withdraw funds any time for any purpose."

"Yet the nation has a lot of experience with tax-break-driven accounts intended to solve big problems or recast society, and their record is decidedly mixed...."

"Claim 3: There's no reason to pay attention to the stock market bust of 2000 and the corporate and investment scandals of the last two years."

"On the face of it, pushing the notion of an ownership society just when prominent institutions such as the New York Stock Exchange and the mutual fund industry are gripped by allegations of fraud seems risky. But many GOP strategists figure it's a way for the president to take the political offensive by reaching out to key constituencies such as young voters, who tend to think they can't rely on government programs such as Social Security and will have to make their own financial way."

"And it could help divert attention from scandals such as Enron Corp. by depicting a sunny future in which almost everybody owns a piece of the rock and portraying Republicans, rather than Democrats, as their zealous protectors."

"The real danger for Bush may be that in focusing on ownership, he highlights the gulf between what Americans want and what many have. That could get voters wondering whether they really have gotten that much out of their recent encounter with the investment world."

More 2004 notes (D)
Embed Priya David gets Gephardt yesterday defending the Democratic Leadership Council (with whom, we'd note, he has had an on-again, off-again relationship over the years, which right now seems to be on) against Dean's domestic policy proposals: "Well, I've never understood when he's said he's the head of the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. I happen to think that a lot of us in this race have done a lot with Democratic values through the years. And to write off the DLC as not a part of our party is not a good way to become elected president. We need to unite the Democrats. We've got a broad tent in this party, we've got a lot of diverse views, and we need everyone moving in the right direction to beat George Bush. So I don't think it's a good idea to be writing off the DLC or the more moderate part of the Democratic Party."

An e-mail from Gephardt campaign manager Steve Murphy reads, "While some in the media have foolishly suggested that the Democratic race is all but wrapped up, I can tell you that they are putting their money on the rabbit in a Tortoise vs. Hare race... Unlike both Dean and Bush, Dick Gephardt doesn't need a running mate to serve as our commander in chief."

Dean embed Felix Schein has Dean from yesterday saying: "One of the reasons I wish the others guys running for president would tone it down a little bit is that at the end, we're all going to have to pull together in order to beat George Bush... And even the Democratic Leadership Council, which is sort of the Republican part of the Democratic party -- I used to say I'm from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party; there's the Republican wing of the Democratic Party -- we're going to need them too, we really are."

The Los Angeles Times: "While Dean shares much of the group's political philosophy, conservative fiscal principles and progressive social ideals, he has been at odds with its leaders, who have questioned his ability to beat President Bush."

Schein notes the Kerry and Gephardt campaigns were distributing flyers and press releases at Dean events in New Hampshire yesterday. One Kerry aide handed out donut holes with a release ridiculing Dean's statements on foreign policy and his claim that he needs to plug a hole in his resume on that front. Schein also says that at least two of the last four events seemed to have included planted questions: one about Dean's jet and its owner and the ethics of Dean's decision to use the plane, and the second about whether or not Dean has any military experience.

But while "Dean complains about the incessant attacks he gets from rivals, critics argue he's not a bit shy about lobbing bombshells himself," the Des Moines Register notes. "Rival campaigns... made available assaults Dean has launched, including a direct-mail piece that landed in the homes of Iowa Democratic activists over the weekend. 'A good biography isn't enough,' the piece argues. 'Dean is the only candidate motivating the Democratic base and who is electable in every region. Sen. (John) Kerry and Rep. Gephardt voted for the president's war in Iraq and for Bush's No Child Left Behind Act. Only a candidate who opposed the Iraq war can make the case as a Bush alternative - we can't win with Bush light.'"

In an interview with the Boston Globe yesterday, "Dean said... he would not file an answer -- due in Washington County Superior Court in Vermont today -- to a lawsuit against him demanding that he unseal papers from his governorship, and instead would leave the matter to his friend William Sorrell, the current attorney general in Vermont."

"Dean's rivals pounced on his refusal to file an answer, saying Dean was wrongly placing responsibility for the records' release on the attorney general."

Dean is now under fire for an answer he gave to an Iowa newspaper, the New York Times reports. "Asked by The Quad-City Times... to complete the sentence 'My closest living relative in the armed services is,' Dr. Dean wrote in August, 'My brother is a POW/MIA in Laos, but is almost certainly dead.'" Dean's brother was traveling in Southeast Asia as a tourist. "His answer to the newspaper's question, published on Dec. 14 as part of a regular feature on The Quad-City Times's editorial page..., drew complaints from readers and a rebuke from the newspaper's editorial board on Sunday. The editorial was circulated to a handful of reporters on Monday by a rival campaign."

"Dr. Dean called the editorial, which referred to his brother as a 'renegade,' 'one of the greatest cheap shots I've ever seen in journalism.'"

USA Today examines not only Dean's fundraising, but his campaign's money management, finding he has a lower "burn rate" than his top rivals, and that his contributions have grown more exponentially.

The Dean campaign is taking earmarking to a new level. A new e-mail to supporters from campaign manager Joe Trippi says "we need to put our resources now toward ballot access, campaign operations, get out the vote efforts, voter outreach, and television and radio advertising. You can make a contribution toward the area of your choice by clicking on the icons below."

Embed Dugald McConnell gets Edwards on the Democratic infighting: "One of the things that you will see in this campaign is character. Character shows in more than policies. It shows in how you respond when candidates attack. You turn on your television, and at a time when the public is hungry for leadership and someone to lift us up, there's sniping. I don't think voters in New Hampshire care about what someone said yesterday about some nuance, or what someone said seven years ago. They are looking for a leader to lift people up and make us proud again."

Embed Becky Diamond reviews Kerry's 24-hour, "Real Deal" campaign swing through Iowa: The first event started half an hour late because Kerry was at a closed ed board meeting. When Kerry arrived at the construction site in Davenport for lunch with workers, the event was shot by Kerry's media team for future ads, and about one-third of the construction workers were from Illinois. Kerry left the event to shoot stand-ups for commercials in downtown Davenport. He ran half an hour late at that, Diamond says, and by the time the campaign bus was back on the road, it was about 3:00 pm, several hours into the start of the 24-hour campaign day, and Kerry had met 40 voters. Kerry's third event was at a child care center where there were eight people of voting age and about that many kids.

Diamond says the day did get going after that -- more activist events, more attendees, and some fun activities like bowling and football in a parking lot. At about 12:15 am, Kerry's two daughters organized a round of Secret Santa for the 12 people on the bus (not including themselves or the driver) working the overnight shift. You got a number and picked a present, and the next person could decide if they wanted your gift. Diamond says Kerry picked a miniature of a house, which he had to turn over to the ABC off-air, who told Kerry there are few times in life when he could imagine saying something like, "Senator, I want your house, hand it over."

Sixteen hours into the day, at which time Diamond filed, Kerry had met with approximately 425 voters -- probably as many as he could have met in a normal campaign day.

Holiday weekend heads-up: Diamond says Kerry will deliver "a major speech" in New Hampshire on Saturday. An aide close to Kerry says the speech will "frame the race" and highlight the choice voters in New Hampshire face over the next 30 days.

The Wall Street Journal suggests Iowa is good for Kerry, "not just for the political bounce he hopes to get but also because the small-town directness of voters here already has made the Massachusetts Democrat a better candidate. His answers are less curt, his appeals more personal. Gone are the prep-school jokes about hog farms." The Journal finds "a second-place Kerry finish remains possible and would give him a much-needed boost before the New Hampshire showdown Jan. 27 with his nemesis, Mr. Dean."

Kucinich embed Karin Caifa reports that while the rest of the country went to orange, Kucitizens in Delaware sent out a "red alert" to supporters Monday encouraging them to help the campaign collect 100 more signatures for the minimum 500 required for the Delaware primary ballot. Caifa also says the campaign is on track to raise the same amount of money they did in the last two quarters: between $1.5 and 2 million.

Embed Dionne Scott reports on the Liebermans' move into their New Hampshire apartment yesterday. Son Matt drove from Connecticut with boxes of pots and pans to help his father set up. The fully furnished two-bedroom apartment, leased for a month, will serve as the family's home base until the January 27 primary. The apartment complex in northern Manchester is home to not only Lieberman's New Hampshire press secretary and deputy state chair, but also to members of the Kerry and Clark campaigns.

An e-mail from the Liebermans asks supporters to donate their frequent-flier miles to US troops (just like an earlier Dean e-mail).

The Moseley Braun campaign issued a press release yesterday touting her "successful" New Hampshire trip. Embed Angela Miles notes it's the first time she has seen the campaign spin an entire trip. Miles' own take on the New Hampshire swing was different: for example, the crowds were often thin; and while the candidate seemed to sway some voters, a number of attendees said they remained undecided. Overall, Miles says, people seemed to enjoy meeting the candidate and hearing her speak, but the question remains whether they will vote for her.

Ralph Nader won't run as a Green, but may still run as an independent, says the Washington Post.

The Washington Times, pegged to Kerry's and now Clark's use of four-letter words, looks at "the potty-mouth primary." The paper also reviews the presidential candidates' holiday greetings.

Redistricting
The Washington Times notes final arguments begin today before the three-judge federal panel tasked with deciding the fate of the GOP-orchestrated Texas redistricting plan, which would give the party more congressional seats there. "Actions last week from Austin and Washington gave little hope for the Democrats. The U.S. Justice Department, which must approve such redistricting to ascertain that voters' rights have not been violated, weighed in on the side of Republicans on Friday."
 
"Federal judges also tossed out a portion of the Democrats' case in Austin - which had claimed that the Legislature had no right legally to redistrict except every decade."

The Austin American-Statesman says 16 members of the state's Democratic congressional delegation have asked the Justice Department to release a staff report that might show politics played a role in its decision to side with the GOP last week. "Justice Department spokesmen did not return calls Monday seeking comment on when or whether the report will be released."

• Monday, December 22, 2003 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
We enter the holiday news wormhole amidst a welter of mixed signals and political rhetoric on how safe Americans really are, and the Democratic nominating contest may look different as a result when we emerge two weeks from now.

Saddam Hussein is in custody and Libya is ending its nuclear weapons program, but al Qaeda's presence has sent the terror threat level to orange.

The Boston Globe tells us the Democratic presidential frontrunner believes the country is no safer with Hussein gone, is consistently anti-war but inconsistent on certain aspects of the war, and concedes he has a hole in his resume on foreign policy but will "plug" that hole with his running mate. Dean's top rivals, still having to explain their positions on the war, are now trying to stake out territory to his right on Hussein and homeland security.

Beyond an inside-baseball fight between the Dean and Clark camps over whether or not Dean asked Clark to be his running mate, you can feel the media starting to seize on Clark as a likely Dean alternative. Clark gets "anti-Dean?" stories in the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times, both of which note his one-dimensional campaign platform.

The Washington Times phrases the results of a new AP poll this way: "Americans believe 2-to-1 that going to war in Iraq was the right decision, rejecting Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean's assertion that military action was wrong and should not have been taken..."

"A poll of 1,001 adults conducted during three days last week for the Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs found increasing support for President Bush's decision to invade and occupy Iraq, suggesting that Mr. Dean's antiwar views may be losing support just weeks before Democrats begin choosing their nominee."

"The AP poll found that Americans by a substantial margin believe war was the right course of action. Sixty-seven percent said the Bush administration made the right decision in going to war with Iraq."

"Notably, seven in 10 Americans said they believed the war was an important part of the battle against terrorism, and not a distraction from that effort, as Mr. Dean and other Democratic critics have charged."

"Jay Carson, Mr. Dean's chief spokesman, dismissed the AP poll, saying that 'the governor has never based his foreign policies and decisions on polls. He believes, as do many, many others, that the United States is not safer today than we were before Saddam Hussein was captured.'"

A Kerry e-mail from yesterday, slugged "a dangerous lack of foreign policy experience," highlights Dean's concession that he has a hole in his resume and likens him to Bush, "who has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it's not enough to have a seasoned team of foreign policy handlers, it takes a President with his/her own experience, vision, and skills in national security and diplomacy to make America safe in a dangerous, post-9/11 world... It's not just a matter of checking off a box on a resume, the way to have a President who can handle foreign policy is to elect a President who knows something about foreign policy." Another Kerry e-mail recalls his recent speech on homeland security.

Kerry on Dean this past weekend, per embed Becky Diamond: "Tom Delay and other Republicans have been sitting around gleefully saying they would love to have Howard Dean. Karl Rove has been very public about it... I think they know what I know - which is what I've been saying - that America needs leadership and national security. Foreign policy is a critical issue in this campaign."

Other rival camps focus on Enron and Dean's previous embrace of captive insurance companies in Vermont, and demand that Dean unseal his records to see whether he met with Enron execs. Gephardt, per embed Priya David: "I don't think you can make the charge against George Bush if in your own state you were advocating and putting up with tax breaks for Enron and other corporations. It just leaves you in a position where you can't draw that line with George Bush, and that's the point I'm trying to make."

An e-mailed statement from Lieberman's campaign director, reacting to a Sunday TV interview of Dean's manager: "Contrary to Joe Trippi's claim, Howard Dean does have the power to unseal his secret files, and could single-handedly end this delay today with a simple letter. Joe Trippi consciously misled the American people today by suggesting that Howard Dean's papers are tied up in court, but he knows full well that Governor Dean has the ability to unseal the records if he wanted. We Democrats don't have a chance to replace the secrecy and stalling of the Bush Administration if we engage in the same tactics. We Democrats are better than that."

Dean embed Felix Schein got an exclusive interview with the candidate last night, in which Dean talked about the attacks by his rivals:

Q: Do you think you can get away with not responding to the attacks?
A: "No. You cannot get away without responding. You have to respond. The question is how you respond. Do you respond in kind or do you just point out that they are wrong and move on to the next thing."

Q: Is it hard for you to stay quiet?
A: Yeah, I am somewhat of a street fighter. If someone punches me I am apt to chase them down and I need to be restrained by the people who know better and have been in the game longer than I have."

Today, President and Mrs. Bush spend the day at a series of holiday observances and Vice President Cheney visits troops and fundraises in Washington state.

Gephardt is in the midst of a 17-county tour of Iowa with a somewhat modified stump speech: embed Priya David report Gephardt now singles out Dean, charging that Democrats need a candidate who expresses more than just anger at Bush. Kerry starts off a 24-hour day of campaigning in Iowa with a new bus wrapped with shiny red tape with the words "Real Deal Express" on the side, says embed Becky Diamond. Kerry on his long day: "I've been involved in public life long enough to know when I'm deluding myself or not -- this campaign is picking up steam. People in Iowa listen and take this seriously. It doesn't matter what the polls say... You're looking for who can lead this country..."

Now that Edwards has visited all 99 counties in Iowa, embed Dugald McConnell notes, the next milestone to achieve is 100 town hall meetings in New Hampshire. The campaign is vague about the count, but it is somewhere in the mid-80s, and they say Edwards has personally met with more than 7,500 voters. Edwards does two more town halls today.

And Lieberman and son Matt move into their new -- and, embed Dionne Scott reports, newly kosher -- New Hampshire apartment.

Health care
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein previews a study being released today on uninsured Americans which shows the problem is about to get worse: "Today almost one in six Americans lacks health insurance." And now that "public programs are facing debilitating cutbacks," "...the result will be a continuing rise in the number of uninsured Americans - even if the recovering economy slows the loss of health insurance on the job."

"A study due to be released today by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington shows that 34 states over the last year have cut spending on either Medicaid, which provides health care for the poorest families; CHIPs, which primarily insures children in working-poor families; or both. The result could be to eliminate health coverage for 1.2 million to 1.6 million low-income people, almost half of them children."

The economy
The AP coverage of its own poll highlights 55% of registered voters saying they approve of Bush's handling of the economy, while just 43% disapprove. "That is Bush's best number on this measure... since the third quarter of 2002, though he briefly came close to this level - at 52 percent - last July. A month ago, 46 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved of Bush on the economy."

USA Today continues spooling out its mid-December survey of economists: "In their most optimistic end-of-the-year outlook in years, the economists expect the stock market to continue to rise. And business spending, a key economic element, is expected to rebound strongly after being largely absent."

"Leading the economy will be business spending, which has picked up as firms replace aging, obsolete machinery and add new technology to boost productivity. CEOs are showing they are more confident about the future."

"The confidence boost will also lead employers to add jobs. The median forecast for the 2004 year-end unemployment rate is 5.5%. That would be the lowest rate since fall 2001."

"The improved job market will likely keep consumers shopping. That's important because consumer spending accounts for more than three-quarters of all U.S. economic activity."

"Despite the increase in activity, inflation, now the lowest in decades, will likely remain low. That will allow Federal Reserve officials to take their time raising interest rates."

"All of this is great news for President Bush: All of the 57 economists who responded to a question about Bush's prospects said the economy will help the president's re-election campaign."

The Sunday Boston Globe looked at the New Hampshire economy: "In 1992,... Democratic candidates could literally walk from their campaign offices to find boarded-up buildings, soup lines, and other scenes of despair for nightly newscasts. This time, New Hampshire is not being so accommodating. While the state hardly escaped the recent recession unscathed -- losing nearly 20,000 jobs -- it nonetheless can boast an unemployment rate that, at 4.3 percent, is among the nation's lowest and about half that of the early 1990s. Its labor market is beginning to improve, and regional economists forecast the state will continue to add jobs over the next year at a faster rate than both New England and the United States as a whole."

"The result, say political observers, is that the economy is no longer a hot campaign issue in New Hampshire, where the national debate is often shaped. And ultimately, Democrats may lose what many once viewed as their most potent argument for ousting the administration."

More 2004 notes (D)
More from embed Felix Schein's exclusive Sunday night interview with Dean.
Q: "If you were writing this story, what would you write?"
A: "I would try something new if I were a journalist. I think a lot of journalism is gotcha - can you find something that I said in 1985 that contradicts a position now. A lot of it is Senator so-and-so said something about Senator so-and-so and there is a lot of back and forth. You know that doesn't really contribute much to the debate... The things that I would like write about if I were a reporter is policy differences. Go into the policy. First of all, ask the tough questions about policy. How are they really going to finance this? Get everybody's healthcare plan side-by-side and find out what it costs from an analyst and that is an interesting story."

More A: "Here is a story I would like to do if I were a reporter. I would like to take everybody's proposals for spending money and add them up and see how big the deficit is going to be by the Democrats who are running against the President and see how do they plan to pay for it. That would be a very interesting thing to do and I think people would be impressed. Okay, Senator so-and-so has $14 billion worth of spending here and $106 billion there. Let's see what Senator so-and-so has on the tax revenue side. Those are the kinds of things that don't get done in journalism that should that require some resources and investigative capacity. Instead, what often gets done is General Clark said this and Howard Dean said that, John Kerry said this about each other. It is not very informative."

Q. "What is it that we don't get to see?"
A. "I am on the phone all the time. When I am not with you and I am in the van and there is cell service then I am on the phone. I am raising money. I am calling people I hope will endorse me - people in Iowa or people like the Vice President. I am getting advice from people around the country including former Presidents. You live your life on the phone if you are not shaking hands with people."

Speaking of, Clark seems opposed to the way Dean is raising and spending his money. Embed Marisa Buchanan got Clark saying this: "if you look at what Howard Dean is doing he is in fact using money. He's made a big fact of the, of having the most money available of any candidate, and not only is he using it for his own campaign, he's trying to outspend his opponents. He's also using it to influence others who are trying to support him. I think I read somewhere that he's actually contributing money to another candidate's campaign, I think it was in Iowa, a man that was running for Congress -- that's the oldest trick in the book! That's what guys like Tom DeLay and others in Congress do with their so-called 'leadership PAC's.' So, I understand why he does it, it's the conventional American way of politics, it's to use money. But I think that if we're gonna break the conventional mold on politics, we ought not to use money like that..." (Clark's party might disagree...)

The Boston Globe considers Dean's challenge to turn his Internet supporters into voters.

Bob Novak in his column today notes Democratic Establishment angst about Nominee Dean, and on Sunday, Novak said Democratic sugar daddy George Soros is starting to have doubts about Dean.

Bob Graham "appears to be positioning himself into contention if Howard Dean tops the ticket," says the Miami Herald, which reports Graham met privately with Dean and Clark at last month's Democratic convention in Florida.

Embed Dugald McConnell gets Edwards on Dean: "Governor Dean is not setting my agenda. I think that's one of the problems with these other candidates spending all their time focused on each other. It's important to show why you're different. It's important to show why you should be president. But it's also important to stay focused on what you would do as commander in chief, and what you will do as President of the United States."

On Sunday in a suburb of Cedar Rapids, Edwards had the largest crowd McConnell has seen him draw in the last several weeks: a few hundred. The speech was tailored to a party activist crowd: less about issues, more partisan, and more energetic. The event also featured a confetti shooter. (McConnell says the crowd and even many staffers were surprised by the sudden whoosh.)

The Los Angeles Times does Edwards on the trail.

The Wall Street Journal considers Gephardt as a potential alternative to Dean. "His campaign has all the textbook elements: policy ideas, a well-crafted stump speech, a loyal staff, a candidate who always has the stamina for one more event... White House strategists believe that by blending all-American wholesomeness with a full-throated appeal to economic discontent, Mr. Gephardt may have the best chance against Mr. Bush in the Midwest battlegrounds where the 2004 election may be decided."

"The question is whether Democrats want to make the head-over-heart choice that Mr. Gephardt represents."

Kerry seems to be downplaying his Iowa efforts even as his staff builds them up. After being told by a spokesperson that Kerry will be spending approximately 75% of his time in Iowa from now until the caucuses, embed Becky Diamond gets this from the candidate: "I didn't say I was going to have such a strong showing - we're doing very, very well. We're growing very strong. Others are picking it up - others who observe Iowa are noticing. People are making commitments because they are focusing on who can be president of the US - who can beat George Bush - who's ready to fill the shoes and become the leader and commander in chief and lead the US to a safer foreign policy."

Noting Kerry's struggle in New Hampshire, the New York Times considers his strategy to do well enough in Iowa to boost his chances in the Granite State -- "a kind of 'slingshot effect,' as Mary Beth Cahill, who took over a month ago as his campaign manager, likes to call it."

The Hartford Courant looks at the Kerry campaign's "flawless spin" about New Hampshire, which sends "the message that Kerry is so far down in the polls that simply finishing second with a higher percentage than the mid- to low teens would be seen as a comeback. And Kerry himself showed he remained upbeat and ready to fight."

Kucinich got Sunday profiles in the New York Times Magazine and the Boston Globe.

Embed Angela Miles notes the Moseley Braun campaign has just over a week to meet the December 31 deadline of raising $5,000 in 20 states in order to receive federal matching funds. Campaign manager Patricia Ireland tells Miles they are still a few states short, and that she is calling old high school friends in those states to generate the necessary cash. Ireland says she is not certain Braun was able to meet the goal in New Hampshire; they are still tally gin up from fundraisers during Braun's four-day swing through the state. Meantime, Miles reports, Ireland says there is a back-up plan: apparently the candidate is expecting some sort of windfall to come her way during January. Ireland won't say where the money will come from, but does say it would help pay off the current debt, which she calculates is around $125,000.

The New York Sun looks at the Democratic party's delegate-selection process, noting "every state Democratic Party must submit a delegate selection and affirmative action plan to the national party. It must contain representation goals for four groups African Americans, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Americans, and Native Americans based on the share each represents within the Democratic electorate." Critics say these plans are quotas, the paper adds, while party officials insist they're not.

We'd note that Republicans, according to Republican National Committee officials who held a delegate-selection briefing last week, have no rules providing minority representation other than to "encourage" participation, and GOP rules say that each state "shall endeavor" to have equal participation of men and women.

• Friday, December 19, 2003 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
We're a month out from the Iowa caucuses and, as one campaign e-mail notes, less than 1,000 hours from the New Hampshire primary. Still, you can feel the inexorable, pre-holiday slowdown in political news. We'll continue to publish through Tuesday.

President Bush meets with his Secretary of Health and Human Services and director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy this morning. Edwards and Dean are in Iowa; Dean this morning was endorsed by New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey. Clark is in New Hampshire. Kerry is in New Mexico. Lieberman is in Delaware.

Schwarzenegger moved $2.7 billion yesterday, and Kerry had an $850,000 day. See below for more.

Usually the Democratic presidential campaigns quietly gripe about being overshadowed when either Clinton enters the picture. But yesterday and today, several are welcoming the former President to the fray. Dean's domestic policy speech yesterday gave some of his rivals and the Clinton-era party Establishment another opening to try to derail him with his alleged critique of the FPOTUS in his domestic policy speech.

The New York Times: "Dr. Dean said he was not criticizing Mr. Clinton. He said he was not calling for bigger government but an 'era of fairer government.' He said that Mr. Clinton had moved the country toward the middle, 'but under President Bush the country's moved toward the far right, and if you want to move the country back toward the middle, which I want to do, you've got to talk about issues that other folks are apparently unwilling to talk about.'"

"Called for comment, Bruce Reed, a former Clinton adviser who is now president of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said, 'He took a cheap shot at Clintonism which wasn't appreciated.' Mr. Reed added: 'You know it just doesn't make any sense. One day Dean says Americans are no better off with Saddam out of power, now he seems to be saying Democrats are better off with Bill Clinton out of power.'"

Presumably the Times got the same e-mail we did from a rival presidential campaign suggesting comment be sought from Reed and Joe Lockhart.

As did PoliticsNH.com: "'It's a little odd that Dean would take the Clinton Administration to task to win over Democrats,' Joe Lockhart, the former press secretary for President Clinton, said in an interview with PoliticsNH.com arranged by a Democratic rival campaign. 'Particularly I cannot understand why he would want to put down President Clinton in New Hampshire where the former president is still very popular.'"

On a conference call yesterday, per embed Dionne Scott, Lieberman charged Dean with attacking Clinton's economic record. Lieberman said he was "startled" by that part of Dean's speech, and said he himself plans to build on the Clinton era, when more than 22 million jobs were created, unemployment was at its lowest in three decades, and the economy moved from record deficits to a record surplus.

Even more notable was the reaction from Clark, who, as embed Marisa Buchanan notes, lashed out at Dean unprompted by the media for only the second time of the campaign. A Clark release, from Clark's Clintonista-heavy press operation: "This isn't the first time [Dean's] done this. Last month, it was reported that Governor Dean wanted to distance himself from Bill Clinton's economic legacy when he called for 're-regulating' the economy. Now, in a speech he gave today, he essentially claimed that President Clinton didn't stand up for America's working families. Did Howard Dean live through the same eight years as the rest of us?"

The Clark campaign holds a conference call today at 11:00 am in which Clinton Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor and Council of Economic Advisors chair Laura D'Andrea Tyson "discuss how General Clark would embrace President Clinton's economic policies, which helped create more than 22 million new jobs, not distance himself from them, as Governor Dean has."

Buchanan also says that when Clark lashed out at Bush yesterday about how the September 11 attacks could have been prevented, Clark was also asked if any blame could be laid at Clinton's feet. Clark deflected the question without referring to Clinton at all. Clark: "I think the record is clear that more could have been done..." He added, "I would like to think that there were more robust military options that could have been taken in the summer and fall of 1998. But until we see the report we don't know the full extent of those options."

The economy
USA Today has a year-end Wall Streeters survey: "For the first time since 1999, Wall Street will have something to celebrate on New Year's Eve. But don't get too giddy just yet. One of the top feel-good stories of 2003 - the triumphant return of the bull market - will be old news in a matter of days. That's because 2004 is a whole new ballgame. What tomorrow brings, no one knows."

"All of the good news may force the Federal Reserve to finally ratchet up interest rates, which could have a sobering effect on stocks. The U.S. dollar remains weak. Inflation may make a comeback. Jobs may or may not come back, depending on whom you ask. And don't forget, the turmoil in Iraq isn't likely to drop off the front pages of newspapers anytime soon. And Osama bin Laden, the terror kingpin who struck at the heart of Wall Street on Sept. 11, 2001, is still on the loose."

The "White House is ready to move ahead with" the President's initiative to boost personal savings, the Wall Street Journal says, "but Mr. Bush's advisers are debating how to shape the plan to win the broadest support. Indeed, the administration may not release the full details until the spring, so it has more time to cut deals with lawmakers and financial-service firms."

"The initial plan envisioned what amounts to two supersized IRA-style accounts. Each account would have a maximum contribution of $7,500 annually, much higher than the current contribution limits on traditional IRAs. Gains would build up tax-free in both accounts, as they do in regular individual retirement accounts."

"Conservative activists are throwing their weight behind the new accounts, because they see them as a first step to remaking Social Security from a system of government payouts to one that includes private accounts. The activists are counting on Mr. Bush to make partial privatization a presidential campaign issue."

The federal unemployment benefits extension ends tomorrow.

2004 Notes (R)
The Wall Street Journal culls more tidbits from the NBC/Journal poll: "36% of Americans identify with the president's party, about the same as when he became president; 39% called themselves Democrats. Bush's adversaries retain big edges on prescription drugs for seniors, education, and fighting corporate corruption, while opening new ones on reducing the deficit and controlling spending. Bush tax cuts haven't widened his party's tax advantage."

"Republicans are favored to hold Congressional majorities, since few House seats are competitive... But the poll casts doubt on Republican hopes for realignment."

"Republicans' 35 percentage point national defense edge is smaller than pre-9/11."

The Washington Times has this lead: "Bush's job-approval rating yesterday jumped to the highest level in six months as he made his fourth visit of the year to hospitalized troops, a group that Democrats accuse him of neglecting." The rating, 63% according to the new Gallup Poll, is mentioned at bottom of the story after Bush's knees and Colin Powell's prostate surgery. The story notes, "In recent months, Democrats and the press have groused that Mr. Bush does not attend the funerals of soldiers killed in Iraq. Historically, it is unusual for presidents to attend individual funerals of fallen troops, although they routinely visit the injured."

As the Los Angeles Times says, Democrats squeezing money out of California but spending it in states with earlier contests is old hat. But the story has this: "Republicans, meanwhile, are looking ahead to November. The leaders of President Bush's reelection effort in California were announced Thursday in Sacramento by campaign Chairman Marc Racicot. Westwood financier Gerald L. Parsky, Bush's top political operative in California, was named state chairman. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was named as honorary chairman, but the depth of his role in the campaign was unclear."

"For Bush, California poses a steep challenge, but his campaign advisors hope some of Schwarzenegger's popularity will rub off on the president... Racicot described the governor's name, reputation and credibility as key assets for Bush. But many political analysts attribute Schwarzenegger's victory to the special circumstances of the recall effort, in particular deep voter dissatisfaction with Gray Davis, the Democratic governor who was ousted. The outcome of the 2004 presidential race in California, they say, is likely to hinge on whatever drives Bush's popularity nationwide - jobs, national security or other issues."

"Still, Parsky sought to cast the president Thursday as more compatible with the California electorate than he was in 2000, when he was trounced in the state by his Democratic rival, Al Gore. Parsky said Bush had earned new support among moderates with school reforms and Medicare coverage of prescription drugs for the elderly."

"Nonetheless, one of California's top GOP strategists acknowledged that California was pretty far down on Bush's list of target states - well below Florida, Pennsylvania, and others where the election was close in 2000."

The Republican National Committee holds a background briefing on its delegate selection process today at 11:30 am.

California
Speaking of Bush's honorary Golden State chair, a lot of papers cover Schwarzenegger's "bold" move yesterday to unilaterally redirect $2.7 billion to local government to replace revenue lost after Schwarzenegger got rid of the car tax. The Los Angeles Times gives it two stories: Story One and Story Two.

The San Francisco Chronicle: "While both budget moves appeased two vocal constituencies, the actions also compound the dilemma the new governor will face in January, when he must present a budget that erases a $14 billion deficit while sticking to his pledge not to raise taxes."

Campaign finance
The AP on possible McCain-Feingold SCOTUS fallout: "Democrats who have been forming groups to avoid spending restrictions in the campaign finance law may face bad news: The government's new chief election regulator is warning that their activities could be reined in." The new Republican FEC chairman, chosen yesterday, "said he believes a recent Supreme Court ruling may require his agency to limit the groups' activities."

"Democrats, however, say the new law provides for an exemption for special tax-exempt political groups, known as 527s, and they formed several of them. The goal is to use the groups to help Democrats better compete with Republicans, who enjoy a significant edge in raising small contributions allowed under the law."

The new chairman "said that while he has not formally made up his mind, he believes the court's ruling may require the FEC to treat the new groups like regulated political committees. That would mean the groups would be limited to accepting no more than $5,000 in donations from each individual, and would be banned from taking corporate or union money. It also would require them to disclose their finances and spending to the FEC."

The folks at the Center for Responsive Politics agree that this could in fact happen.

The Washington Post editorial page takes Edwards and Gephardt to task for not disclosing their bundlers, as Bush, Clark, Dean, Kerry and Lieberman have.

Embed Becky Diamond notes of Kerry's personal loan to his campaign: Kerry initially loaned his campaign $850,000 from his personal credit, and is in the process of obtaining a personal loan secured by the family home in Boston. Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter tells Diamond the money is currently being spent, but that it's "impossible to itemize on what." The campaign, Cutter says, has had the money "for less than a week." The money "will be used as part of overall strategy: ads, staff, field, etc."

Diamond says a senior Kerry aide told her the amount of the loan will be at least as much as what the campaign would have received in matching funds from the FEC. Diamond had called the FEC in November when Kerry was about to opt out of matching funds, and an FEC spokesman told her that as of the third quarter, only about $5 million of what Kerry had raised at that point could be matched. When Diamond asked the senior Kerry aide whether the loan would be about $5 million, the aide said she had made some good calls.

Per Diamond, the move is a sign that Kerry believes in his own campaign. It's also a sign that his fourth-quarter numbers will be less than stellar. Diamond reminds us that Kerry talked about wanting to raise money from the people and not from his own assets when he made the decision to opt out.

The Boston Globe: "Kerry, the first candidate in the presidential race to make a loan to himself, will use the cash to mount an onslaught next month of television advertising, campaign swings, and other efforts to catch up to Howard Dean, his better-funded chief rival for the Democratic nomination, advisers say."

"Kerry and his spokesman... said they could not predict the final amount of the home loan because it has not been secured yet, but the campaign will announce the details once the loan is made."

"The move also makes Kerry the first prominent Democrat to draw on personal funds for a presidential race since enactment of campaign finance restrictions in the mid-1970s that followed the Watergate scandal," says the Los Angeles Times.

The Washington Post: "Sources said Kerry was close to running out of money to finance his campaign. After getting off to a fast start, raising more than $7 million in the first quarter of 2003, sources said he is likely to raise between $1 million and $2 million in the final three months of the year, just when demands for travel, staff and television advertising are escalating rapidly. Those demands are expected to grow geometrically in January."

"Kerry, aides said, will pay off the mortgage himself without help from his wife."

A Dean campaign e-mail out of Iowa swipes at Kerry for "bettin' the farm."

More 2004 notes (D)
A Dean e-mail to supporters urges them to support US troops overseas by sending care packages and donating frequent-flier miles. Embed Felix Schein points out this line at the end: "Many of you, like me, did not support a unilateral war in Iraq. But the brave women and men of the U.S. military deserve our support and gratitude even as we seek to change the policies that put them in danger."

The AP reviews the transcript of Clark's testimony at The Hague. The Los Angeles Times covers last night's 700-plus Clark fundraisers featuring Clark biopic America Son.

Clark goes up with an ad on New Hampshire's WMUR Saturday night during the Patriots-Jets game.

Embed Dugald McConnell reports a visit to Edwards' Raleigh HQ revealed a giant inflated snowman occupying one of the cubicles and Secret Santa pouches on one of the walls, but after the holidays, McConnell says, the Raleigh office will empty out as all "non-essential personnel" head for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Embed Karin Caifa says of Kucinich's current three-day swing through Iowa that campaign sources say a third-place finish there is possible, citing Clinton's weak poll numbers in December 1991 and poor finish there in 1992. Of course, Caifa notes, Sen. Tom Harkin was running for president then.

Embed Dionne Scott says just to show how determined the Lieberman campaign is to become the anti-Dean, a Lieberman New Hampshire staffer showed up at Dean's speech yesterday -- according to New Hampshire spokesperson Kristin Carvell -- dressed as the Grinch, wearing a mask, green jacket, striped stockings and boots. The staffer was carrying two Christmas stockings, one representing the $2,700 more in tax relief that a New Hampshire family of four would receive from a President Lieberman, and a second stocking, representing Dean's plan, filled with coal.

Embed Angela Miles says Moseley Braun campaign manager Patricia Ireland confirms her candidate will not appear on the
ballot in New Mexico or Virginia. Ireland tells Miles that while fine people live in those states, the campaign has to prioritize and

does not have the resources to compete there. Meanwhile, a source tells Miles that Moseley Braun's fourth-quarter fundraising total may end up worse than her third-quarter total. Braun raised around $125,000 last quarter; her best quarter was her second, when she raised $150,000. Campaign manager Ireland believes they have raised around $75,000 for the fourth quarter, but contends the campaign is generating momentum.

Embed Tom Llamas notes Sharpton announced his delegate slates in 10 New York congressional districts yesterday.

• Thursday, December  18, 2003 |9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
President Bush's right knee comes under scrutiny: he gets an MRI and visits with wounded US troops at Walter Reed. Aspiring opponents Dean, Clark and Kerry are all in New Hampshire today; Edwards, Gephardt and Lieberman are down.

The stop-Dean effort continues while Dean targets Bush, big business, big government, and his own party. In a 1:00 pm speech in Manchester, the domestic complement to his Monday foreign policy speech, his campaign says he will "call for a new set of supports designed to address the critical needs of working families: universal access to health care, affordable higher education, accessible child care, and a secure retirement." The AP says Dean's "campaign staff has been preparing what it said will be estimates of how much more people in selected states are paying or what services they're not getting because of Bush's tax cuts. Dean made clear that he planned to take his own party to task for supporting those reductions, but he also signaled that he will try to steer his campaign rhetoric back to a more moderate message...'"

The New Republic also previews: "Instead of slavishly paying tribute to the politics of mid-'90s Clintonism, as every other major candidate is doing, Dean is going to point out how the Third Way lost its way... If Clintonism simply means planting the ideological flag in the center, [Dean's aides] add, then that center will just keep drifting right as Democrats repeatedly accommodate themselves to the Republican tug. Dean is merely positioning himself as the Democrat who is willing to tug back."

Dean also will talk about his "vision for corporate responsibility" -- a favorite theme of Edwards, who just went up with such an ad in New Hampshire. (Embed Dugald McConnell notes that while other campaigns are mixing it up on Iraq and national security, Edwards keeps airing straightforward issue ads.)

Kerry holds a Granite State presser at 10:00 am, then does more chili feeds. A Kerry aide sent embed Becky Diamond an unprompted e-mail saying of Dean, "Karl Rove will eat this guy alive," and that Dean is "not ready for prime time." The aide wrote "it's pretty stunning -- a President (sic) who thought we needed 'permission' from the UN to do anything about Iraq... And who thought apparently we would only join a multilateral force if asked to by the UN rather than trying to nudge the UN to do it? Acquiescence not leadership?" He pointed to this Dean quote: "Had the United Nations given us permission and asked us to be a part of a multilateral force, I would not have hesitated to go into Iraq, but that was not the case."

Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the group airing the "Osama ad" told Diamond, "This isn't fear mongering - if you look at the ad and you listen to the ad --the ad is about the issue of foreign policy and national security experience." Those ads are coming down later this week, the AP reports, but may reappear in other key states later on.

The Lieberman campaign yesterday said they agree with Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi that the "Osama ad" airing in key states is over the top -- but that it's the kind of ad Republicans would likely run again nominee Dean. Per embed Dionne Scott, Lieberman ad-maker Mandy Grunwald said they object to "the visuals, the fear it tries to engender with those visuals."

Clark goes up with another ad in New Hampshire today. Embed Marisa Buchanan notes the campaign expects to see 750 house parties/fundraisers across the country tonight, all featuring a viewing of Clark biopic American Son.

The Manchester Union Leader says the New Hampshire Democratic chair is calling for the candidates to calm down and focus on beating Bush. She "isn't naming names, but her warning comes in the wake of Joe Lieberman's latest round of attacks on Howard Dean, heightened anti-Dean rhetoric from John Kerry and a nasty new anti-Dean ad featuring Osama bin Laden, paid for by a group funded in part by unions backing Dick Gephardt."

Within the Democratic party core, objections to Dean aren't based only on national security. Certain union political directors within the AFL-CIO are unhappy, one of them says, with Dean's position on right to work and with AFL-CIO president John Sweeney for allegedly giving Dean a pass on it. One political director for a union backing another Democratic candidate says that if it's Bush vs. Dean, that union won't necessarily back Dean: "We are going to look at everything, we will look at all options."

The Washington Post does a definitive "Dean said," but will it matter to supporters? "Dean's penchant for flippant and sometimes false statements is generating increased criticism from his Democratic presidential rivals and raising new questions about his ability to emerge as a nominee who can withstand intense, sustained scrutiny and defeat President Bush."

"Dean's remarks, his critics say, are in keeping with his history of making statements that are mean-spirited or misleading. He has distorted his past support for raising the retirement age for Social Security and slowing Medicare's growth. He has falsely said he was the only Democratic presidential candidate talking about race before white audiences. And he made allegations -- some during his years as governor -- that turned out to be untrue."

"To be sure, plenty of presidential candidates have bent facts and stretched figures to sharpen a point or blunt criticism. And interviews this year suggest that many voters give Dean high marks for speaking his mind."

The Los Angeles Times spotlights Dean's statements on the war: "A close examination... during the last 15 months shows that he has consistently voiced opposition to the United States invading Iraq without the support of the United Nations and repeatedly argued that President Bush did not make the case for going to war. But Dean... has made conflicting statements about the danger posed by Saddam Hussein and the conditions under which he would support going to war."

In an interview with some reporters on a flight Monday night, the Boston Globe  Dean "admitted that he has begun to weigh his words more carefully because, 'I'm aware now that I'm speaking not only to Democrats, I'm speaking to the whole country.'"

But: "At the same time, he described himself early in the flight as the 'front-runner' for the nomination, only to say as his plane landed, 'I don't see myself as the front-runner.'"

Politics of national security
Per the New York Times, to President Bush, the question of whether or not Iraq possessed WMD has become a non-issue. "On Tuesday... Mr. Bush suggested that he no longer saw much distinction between the possibilities. 'So what's the difference?' he responded at one point as he was pressed on the topic during an interview by Diane Sawyer of ABC News."

"To critics of the war, there is a big difference. They say that the administration's statements that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons that it could use on the battlefield or turn over to terrorists added an urgency to the case for immediate military action that would have been lacking if Mr. Hussein were portrayed as just developing the banned weapons."

After the Republican National Committee issued a press release on former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's comments yesterday, the Washington Times lists Albright, Dean, McDermott, Kennedy and Matsui in covering "sprouting" Democratic "conspiracy theories" about the timing of Saddam Hussein's capture. "Some Democrats expressed alarm that the party was drifting out of the 'mainstream.'"

2004 notes (R)
The Washington Times covers fallout among social conservatives after Bush's seeming support for civil unions in his ABC interview earlier this week. Noting gay marriage has "supplanted abortion" as the hot social issue for 2004, for now, USA Today says new Gallup numbers from "Monday and Tuesday underscored the perils of Bush's approach. It showed the intensity of feeling among those who oppose same-sex unions."

A CAFTA battle is now in store for 2004: The Washington Post covers the just-reached trade accord with Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras. "Under the agreement, clothing made in Central America would come into the United States duty-free if the fabric and yarn was made in the United States or one of the Central American partners. But at the insistence of Central American negotiators, the agreement also extends duty-free access to apparel made in part with Mexican and Canadian materials. And for some clothing, like boxer shorts, bras and pajamas, additional loopholes were opened for Chinese material."

The story notes, "[f]ew economists believe that the Central American Free Trade Agreement would significantly affect the U.S. economy." However: "If, as promised, the administration pushes for passage early next year, the White House will present congressional Republicans with a difficult trade vote just as a wave of protectionist sentiment crests in Washington."

"Republican congressional leaders looked at that challenge with chagrin yesterday. One senior leadership aide said Bush could lose as many as 30 Republican votes in the House, especially from textile states that have been losing jobs. Republican seats in North and South Carolina will be open in the 2004 election, the aide noted, and two of the retiring members, Reps. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.), will seek open Senate seats against Democratic rivals likely to capitalize on the Bush administration's trade policies."

"...[T]he accord was attacked by labor organizations, which contend that it would weaken existing labor protections. Health care groups decried U.S. intellectual-property provisions that would protect U.S. pharmaceutical companies from low-cost Central American generic drug makers."

"Perhaps more important to its political fate was the reaction from U.S. textile makers and sugar growers," who "swiftly came out against the deal."

The Wall Street Journal: "Some Democratic presidential candidates were quick to criticize the accord as bad for American workers." Like Gephardt: "'Cafta accelerates the race to the bottom for U.S. workers and workers around the world... Thousands of textile and apparel jobs will be lost in South Carolina and across the country,' he said, citing a key Democratic primary state. 'Thousands more jobs will be lost in the agricultural industry.'"

Politics of information
The Washington Post looks at the Administration's "creative editing" of its website, while the Washington Times covers civil rights groups' lawsuit to stop the Administration "from entering immigration information into a national crime database, saying the data is being misused in the wake of the September 11 attacks on America."

More 2004 notes (D)
The latest New York Times/CBS News poll gives Democrats some hope: "Forty-five percent of voters said they would probably vote for Mr. Bush, compared with 39 percent who said they would probably vote for his Democratic opponent, no matter who that is. And 38 percent say they do not believe that Mr. Bush was legitimately elected." But the poll also finds most voters are largely unmoved by any of the nine Democrats, and that one-fourth of voters already have a negative view of Dean.

The Raleigh News & Observer offers a detailed refresher on the candidates' positions on the Bush tax cuts.

Because of the "Osama ad," the Des Moines Register says Iowa has become "a front line in the wars over new kinds of political ads." Another Register story notes "Dean's supporters from other states have written more than 100,000 letters to Iowa Democrats encouraging them to support Dean in the leadoff caucuses. The campaign has organized another round of letters to go out this week, campaign manager Joe Trippi said Wednesday... He said the campaign's internal polling shows three-fourths of Iowa Democrats who say they plan to go to the caucuses have received letters. Some have received several letters."

The Boston Globe notes how "Kerry has sharply curtailed campaign visits to states beyond Iowa and New Hampshire, betting virtually all of his political chips on success in one short month: January." The Globe says Kerry plans to spend the first two weeks of January in Iowa, with day trips to New Hampshire. "Since Nov. 9, Kerry has visited only one of the seven Feb. 3 primary states -- Arizona -- and only for three hours on Veterans Day."

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) tells the Herald he doesn't think Kerry can win the nomination.

Clark is now shooting for a second or third place in New Hampshire, notes PoliticsNH.com. "[Clark's] talk of a second place finish in New Hampshire makes him the first to start painting an even gloomier picture of Sen. John Kerry's campaign, who until recently appeared to be the second place finisher."

Kerry himself, to embed Becky Diamond: "I'm running against the clock here. I'm trying to meet as many voters as I can, as fast as I can. I'm going to work as hard as I can as a human being to get every vote I can get. I think the campaign is doing very well - we have energy and we're growing. We got over a rough spot a month or two ago - campaigns go through that and now people are really looking and saying who can be president - who can beat George Bush."

Embed Marisa Buchanan says Dean only made it into the conversation at Clark's town hall once last night, when Clark was asked how his draft movement could attempt to achieve what the Dean movement has. Clark took a rare moment to compare and contrast: "Maybe for him it is about the movement. Because he always says, you know, this isn't about me, it's about you. And that's the sort of favored thing to energize people. But, they (the draft movement) brought me into this because it was about me. And I'm running because it's about you all."

One New York Post article says Clark thinks Hussein should face the death penalty, while another Post piece says Clark supports the controversial School of the Americas, "a position that's likely to alienate some Democratic primary voters."

Dean gets it from all sides in the Washington Post: his campaign manager and communications director get lengthy Howard Kurtz Style profile treatment -- -- while his foreign policy speech from Monday gets a Post editorial page verdict that while it "was described as a move toward the center,... in key ways it shifted him farther from the mainstream."

"The former Vermont governor has compiled a disturbing record of misstatements and contradictions on foreign policy; maybe he will shift yet again, this time toward more responsible positions."

Embed Dugald McConnell notes that amid a week of fundraisers ranging from Florida to Philadelphia, Edwards told reporters he is making progress on the money front. "Do I have the money? Yes, we do." Spokesperson Jennifer Palmieri said that thanks to more time spent fundraising, they expect this quarter to be better than the last. When asked if Edwards would consider using his own money, as Kerry may do (but hasn't yet), Palmieri shook her head no.

Moseley Braun embed Angela Miles looks into the campaign's efforts at a strong showing in the DC beauty contest, with Sharpton looming. Campaign manager Patricia Ireland tells Miles they are doing some pricing and placing an order for signs, which she hopes will go up in DC within a week with the help of college students and some sort of midnight run. Ireland also says the campaign is pricing auto-dialing to ID potential voters. The Moseley Braun DC HQ just opened on December 8.

The New York Times profiles Moseley Braun, saying her candidacy, in part, is "a mission to win back her reputation."

Embed Tom Llamas says Sharpton's campaign is limiting travel for the next couple of weeks, as the holiday season gives the campaign time to regroup. This week, Llamas says, staffers have been busy fundraising and putting together campaign manuals for volunteers in different parts of the country. With the matching funds check coming, Llamas says to expect Sharpton to be back out on the road full-time come the New Year.

• Wednesday, December 17, 2003 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
OK, it was just one focus group, and it was in Ohio, which has lost a lot of jobs and isn't so threatened by terrorism.  But the way Dean's rivals are piling on him for alleged weakness on national security, in the face of those Democrats and D-leaning independents gathered Toledo Monday night who worry about their jobs and health care, has us thinking Dean's collective Democratic opposition, including that 527 group running those "Osama ads," are asking Democratic voters to look further ahead -- i.e., to the general election -- than they're inclined to.  Even if the argument that national security credentials = electability may prove true. 

Strategists on both sides say Democrats don't win primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, or the Heartland on national security.  (Maybe it helps in more conservative, vet-heavy South Carolina.)  Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry are running on other issues, but not currently with the vehemence with which they are attacking Dean over the war and his comments on Saddam Hussein's capture.  So 33 days out from the Iowa caucuses, is this the best way to stop him? 

The focus group was conducted for UPenn's Annenberg Public Policy Center by pollsters Peter Hart and Bob Teeter, who also poll for NBC and the Wall Street Journal.  Coincidentally, CNBC's Capitol Report, The Wall Street Journal, and NBC's First Read covered it.  "Perhaps the capture of Saddam Hussein will yet interrupt Howard Dean's march toward the Democratic presidential nomination," says the Journal.  "But no one who heard a dozen Midwest Democrats talk politics here in the wake of the news would bank on it."

Gephardt yesterday: "a candidate with no foreign policy experience is not going to beat George Bush."  He and Kerry zeroed in on Dean's inconsistencies on the war as a way to get at Dean's character, as well.  Kerry yesterday, per embed Becky Diamond: "He supported authorizing the President to go to war.  And then he criticized the people that voted to authorize the President to go to war.  Both ways - he took the position and then he criticized the position he took...  I think people want a president who is clear - who has one solid position about how you protect America." 

A Gephardt fundraising e-mail says: "Voters today are questioning whether a candidate such as Howard Dean who has so politicized the war in Iraq that he lowered his credibility to almost zero on foreign affairs now stands a chance against George Bush."

A Kerry fundraising solicitation e-mail is headlined: "The Bottom Line: National Security:" "George W. Bush and Karl Rove plan to run on national security in the general election.  Bush and Rove do NOT want to run against John Kerry -- they know that he can meet Bush head-on when it comes to national security and win."  A Kerry campaign e-mail last night reads, "Democratic candidate for President John Kerry" -- nice phrasing there -- "will head to New Hampshire to continue pushing his national security agenda and what he will do in his first 100 days to secure America."

Embed Dionne Scott notes Lieberman's attacks on Dean on the war are part of his effort to win New Hampshire independents, moderate Democrats and disgruntled Republicans.  Dean's response to Lieberman's criticism yesterday, per embed Felix Schein: "I think that is typical Washington politics.  It is what the American people are sick of and that is why they don't vote because of silliness like that. I am here with a positive agenda.  I am here to talk about hope, opportunity, education and jobs and I am gonna keep talking about that and they can say what they like."

Schein says Dean spoke before massive crowds yesterday, turning out about 500 people at a seniors center in Sun City, AZ, then rallying with about 300 hundred people in Yuma, AZ.   He also filled an airport hanger in Sierra Vista, AZ with about 300 people before closing the evening before at least 400 diehards in Las Cruces, NM.  Schein says Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (a big centrist/DLC Democrat, we'd note) endorses Dean today.  And New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey's expected endorsement on Friday reminds us of a press briefing from a few years ago hosted by the DLC in which they touted McGreevey's win as a DLC victory.

Even the White House yesterday got in on the act.  The Boston Herald says press secretary Scott McClellan's response to Dean's charge that Hussein's capture doesn't make the country safer marked "a drastic change from previous attempts by the White House to stay out of the nine-way Democratic primary race and signals a growing sense by the administration that Dean will be the nominee."

Today, the Lieberman campaign holds a conference call to roll out a new New Hampshire ad at 11:00 am; a campaign source says the ads hammers at the "forward with Lieberman, not backward with Dean" theme.  The Clark campaign holds a call to roll out a new New Hampshire ad on Iraq at 1:00 pm.  Clark e-mailed potential donors trying to raise $1 million off his testimony at The Hague.

Edwards visits a child care center in Charleston, SC to discuss education and children's health care.  Embed Dugald McConnell says to also look for him to speak about discrimination, a day after Jesse Jackson led a demonstration in the city to protest a commando-style high school drug raid last month that critics say singled out minorities.  Attorney Marlon Kimpson, an Edwards supporter, told McConnell Tuesday he is already working on a lawsuit in the matter.

An Edwards backer and state lawmaker in South Carolina told McConnell: "Dean was an antiwar draft dodger, who built his whole platform on being against this war.  Now that Saddam has been captured, any Democrat who votes for Dean has to be out of their mind, because there's no way he can win against Bush." 

And President Bush himself will deliver "a major speech about the future of space travel" at today's events commemorating the first flight in Kill Devil Hills, NC. – Charlotte Observer 

Politics of national security
Using both pre- and post-capture surveys, just like our NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the latest New York Times/CBS News survey also finds Bush's approval ratings increased after Hussein was found.  "But even in the glow of Mr. Hussein's capture, Americans worry that United States forces will be mired in Iraq for years, are concerned that the attacks on American troops will continue and say that President Bush has no plan to extricate the United States from Iraq ... And 60 percent of Americans said the United States was as vulnerable to a terrorist attack as it was before Mr. Hussein was pulled from a hole in Ad Dwar."

The New York Daily News writes up the findings from both polls.

Politics of national security (D)
The Boston Globe suggests problems with many of the Democratic candidates' positions on Hussein's capture, not just Dean's: "Clark, who has staked his candidacy on opposition to the war, has tried in recent days to balance between cheering the capture of Hussein and opposing the US intervention in Iraq...  Kerry has walked a similar tightrope, saying on Sunday that he thinks Hussein might have been caught sooner with a globalized effort.  And [Dean,] who has praised Hussein's capture, has also been saying that America is not necessarily safer with Hussein in custody."

"Those statements might satisfy activist Democratic primary voters who haven't wavered in their opposition to the war, said Marc Landy, a political science professor at Boston College.  But they could pose a dilemma in the general election, when voters aren't as likely to make such distinctions."

Walter Shapiro: "it was stunning how quickly the capture of Saddam Hussein morphed into something quite different: a high-decibel debate among Democrats over Howard Dean's foreign policy views."

"The Democrats out to topple Dean from his front-runner's perch divided into two camps.  There were those who angrily attacked Dean by name (Joe Lieberman, John Kerry and Richard Gephardt) and those who preferred to draw their contrasts more subtly (John Edwards and Wesley Clark).  But what united the former Vermont governor's mainstream opponents was the desperate conviction that the Iraq war, which had powered Dean's insurgency, would also prove to be his undoing."

"The political problem, though, lay in defining the precise nature of Dean's vulnerability."

The Los Angeles Times saw it this way: "Dean's presidential rivals offered two distinct lines of argument against the Democratic front-runner on Tuesday, challenging him for opposing the war with Iraq and for having too little foreign-policy experience."

One academic "said the danger for Democrats in painting Dean as a candidate of the left is that they are giving Republicans material to use against him, should he emerge as the party's nominee."  As a release yesterday from the Republican National Committee tried to do...

The Washington Post says the criticisms of Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman "reflected not only the effort to disrupt Dean's march toward the Democratic nomination but also the increasingly competitive jockeying among the other candidates to emerge as the clear alternative once the field begins to winnow..."

The Manchester Union Leader reports on Lieberman's portraying Dean "as a 'backward Democrat' who will weaken the nation's defense, raise middle-class taxes and start a trade war costing millions of jobs.

The Des Moines Register says Kerry charged Dean "is unfit to be president because he dismissed Saddam's capture Saturday as unlikely to improve U.S. safety."

"But Dean's rise as a top contender is mostly about his willingness to oppose President Bush, a foreign policy expert said."

Embed Becky Diamond says Kerry's speech yesterday was one of his strongest performances in months.  His message was simple and focused: Hussein's capture was good, Bush is a bad president, Dean is dangerous, and Kerry should be president because he is responsible, experienced and a tested leader.   Diamond says the speech was the first time she has heard Kerry so forcefully attack Dean at a formal policy event.  Previously, he had gone after Dean in response to voters' questions on the trail and at less formal message events.  

We'd note that when asked on a Monday conference call about Dean's line that "Saddam's capture doesn't make the US any safer," Kerry supporter and former Sen. Max Cleland (D) said he didn't disagree with Dean's statement.  Cleland said Hussein's removal has made the United States "marginally safer," but that it has also created a power vacuum that has now been filled by "jihadists."

Dean on the Americans for Jobs, Healthcare and Progressive Values TV ad featuring bin Laden, per embed Felix Schein: "I am disappointed in the stuff about the 527.  That I was surprised at.  That I am still shocked by that, that you would use a 527 to attack other Democrats.  It never occurred to me that that might happen."  Also: "I think it is a personal attack.  And it is very similar to what the Republicans did to Max Cleland last year - morphing Saddam, or was it Osama, I forgot - into Max Cleland.  The Republicans are well known for that and I expect it from that which is why I am not a Republican.  I don't expect it from Democrats and I don't think we ought to behave like that."

And note for the record, when that Democratic party media fund gears up, that Dean also said, "I would not permit an ad of the nature that is up there now." 

Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi on Capital Report: "...the only way we're going to get rid of those kinds of ads is if two million Americans contribute $100 to our campaign and we have a real honest debate."

An aide close to Kerry told Becky Diamond, "I think the use of Osama bin Laden's image is a distraction from the legitimate concerns of democrats about Howard Dean's glaring lack of foreign policy judgment and experience.  I can only imagine what kind of ads Karl Rove would gleefully run against Howard Dean."

The "Osama ad" is causing problems for Gephardt.  The AP: "Several labor unions that endorsed Dick Gephardt donated $50,000 apiece to a group broadcasting commercials that question Democratic presidential rival Howard Dean's credentials...."

"One of the unions, the International Association of Machinists, called Tuesday for the group, Americans for Jobs, Healthcare and Progressive Values, to pull the ad and release the names of its financial backers.  Other labor unions that gave money to the group include the Laborers International Union of North America and the Ironworkers Union, both of which have endorsed Gephardt for president."

"Gephardt said Tuesday he had no idea who was financing the group."  A spokesperson for the group said they will not pull the ads.

A New York Times adds the latest editorial slamming the ad.

The Washington Times covers the Dean campaign's efforts to "distance itself" from earlier Dean suggestions that Bush had prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks, and criticism of Rep. Jim McDermott (D) from a fellow Washington state Democratic congressman for suggesting the capture of Hussein was timed for political reasons.

The economy
The Wall Street Journal says "Christmas has come early to much of the Great Plains, a region racked by five years of agricultural recession...  [O]n the Plains, where the economy is more dependent on agriculture, rising farm spending is helping states such as the Dakotas and Nebraska out-perform the nation in terms of job creation."  USA Today says the only thing missing from the rosy picture painted yesterday by another uptick in housing starts and a drop in inflation is an increase in hiring.

The State notes "Democratic presidential candidates" -- Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman -- "blamed President Bush and his trade policies Tuesday for the 4,400 South Carolina jobs lost between October and November - the biggest loss recorded for that month since the 1982 recession."

Toledo
More on the Democratic focus group.  Pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group with Bob Teeter, said on CNBC's Capital Report: "We're talking about Middle America; we're talking about the heartland in Ohio and southeast Michigan.  The public is very concerned about the economy, first and foremost, and why?  Because they don't see that bounce that we hear in the numbers.  All of the things say it's better times, but if you're going through it people feel stretched, they're worried, they're hard-pressed.  So if you're a Democrat, you better be able to talk about the economy, you better be able to tell the public how you're going to make it better, if you're going to win the Democratic primaries."

And on Dean: "I think that the abrasiveness was mentioned.  It is a sense that what they've seen is--he knows himself, but at the same time he may be too sure of himself, and a sense that he's cutting against a lot of things.  And I think that's his downside."

The Wall Street Journal says the group "produced three clear impressions: They're voting their fears over the economy, not security; they loathe George W. Bush; and they credit Mr. Dean -- far more than any rival -- with a feisty defense of their values."

"A year ago, Mr. Dean barely moved the needle in The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with 1% among Democratic primary voters.  Today, his 25% showing has wiped away the front-runner fantasies of Joe Lieberman or Wesley Clark, who once led such surveys based on familiarity and media fluff."

"The Journal/NBC poll and Mr. Hart's focus group, sponsored by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania, offer an explanation.  And it begins with the fact that Democrats are not happy."

"They have lots to learn about the Democrats.  But most preferred a candidate who will stand up for Democratic values rather than one with the best chance to win."

"Participants voiced concern about [Dean's] inexperience in foreign policy.  But when Mr. Hart asked who planned to vote on national-security issues, just one hand went up.  In the Journal/NBC poll, Democrats cited domestic issues, vision and leadership as most important."

More 2004 notes (D)
The Washington Post marks Kosovo as a defining moment for Candidate Clark: "Lately, Clark has taken to pulling out a book of photographs of atrocity victims in Kosovo when he speaks with reporters about his experience.  On Monday and yesterday, he confronted deposed Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic for the first time since the war, testifying behind closed doors at the U.N. war crimes trial..."

"But the campaign's description of the war skips over a persistent debate not only over how Clark managed it and fought with his superiors over tactics, but also whether the war was avoidable or well planned.  The debate has intruded on Clark's campaign, as he is frequently asked about recent criticism by former bosses who had argued that the war was an unworthy gamble."  Clark himself, unwaveringly, says no.

The Los Angeles Times notes how "Dean is quietly reaping endorsements from high-ranking Latino officials, a development that bodes well for him in Southwestern states."

Embed Priya David says of Gephardt's fundraising progress that when asked at a recent campaign stop, Gephardt said he's looking to pull in about $7 or 8 million by the end of the year, with matching funds.  That's short of the $10 million originally hoped for, but the campaign continues to say they will have enough money to battle on in the early primary states.

Embed Karin Caifa gets this quote about Dean from new Kucinich endorser Matt Gonzalez, who just lost a Green bid for the San Francisco mayoralty: "When you consider how easy it is to try to water down your views to get more voters to support you, versus simply taking what you believe in and try to argue why our ideas are better, that's really the hard part of politics, and Dennis has led the way down that path."

The New York Times notes the change in Lieberman and the new excitement within his campaign after Gore endorsed Dean and US soldiers captured Hussein.  "The changes in Mr. Lieberman's once-sleepy campaign certainly have given his staff a much-needed jolt."

Embed Dionne Scott says a number of Lieberman staffers have volunteered to defer paychecks for the month of January.  Campaign director Craig Smith asked staffers if they'd be willing to make the sacrifice, and spokesperson Jano Cabrera (who went without pay once or twice while working for Gore) said, "We're in the homestretch, making use of the resources that we have to be as competitive as possible in January."  Since last fundraising quarter, Scott says, the campaign has raised $11 million total, placing Lieberman behind five of his rivals in funds raised.  They expect to receive around $4 million in matching funds.

Embed Angela Miles notes Moseley Braun's seeming recovery from being home with "the flu" in time to do an interview with CNN yesterday.  After inquiring as to her sudden ability to do TV, Miles herself got an interview with the candidate.  The campaign now says Moseley Braun will be down Wednesday so she can rest some more.  Miles notes this is the second time the candidate has claimed to be sick, only to make an appearance on a sick day.

Embed Tom Llamas gets Sharpton at his endorsement event yesterday taking veiled potshots: "I challenge every candidate that gets endorsements to explain your history with the person you endorsed and the history of the candidate," he said.  "Stop the drive-by campaigning, tell us where you been, don't tell us what deal you've cut."

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