Report warns 10 states face budget disasters

updated 5:53 p.m. ET Nov. 11, 2009

SACRAMENTO, California - In Arizona, the budget has grown so gloomy that lawmakers are considering mortgaging capitol buildings. In Michigan, state officials dealing with the nation's highest unemployment rate are slashing spending on schools and health care.

Drastic financial remedies are no longer limited to California, where a historic budget crisis earlier this year grew so bad that state agencies were borrowing to pay bills.

A study released Wednesday warned that at least nine other big states are also barreling toward economic disaster, raising the likelihood of higher taxes, more government layoffs and deep cuts in services.

The report by the Pew Center on the States found that Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin are also at grave risk. Double-digit budget gaps, rising unemployment, high foreclosure rates and built-in budget constraints are the key reasons.

"While California often takes the spotlight, other states are facing hardships just as daunting," said Susan Urahn, managing director of the Washington, D.C.-based center. "Decisions these states make as they try to navigate the recession will play a role in how quickly the entire nation recovers."

Action urged
The analysis, "Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril," urged lawmakers and governors in those states to take quick action to head off a wider catastrophe. The 10 states account for more than one-third of the nation's population and economic output, according to the report.

Historically, states have their worst tax revenue year soon after a national recession ends. At the same time, higher joblessness and underemployment mean more people need government-sponsored health care and social safety-net programs, further taxing state services.

California leads the most vulnerable states identified by the report, which describes it as having poor money-management practices. Since February, California has made nearly $60 billion in budget adjustments in the form of cuts to education and social service programs, temporary tax hikes, one-time gimmicks and stimulus spending, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office.

Many of those fixes are not expected to last. The state's temporary tax increases will begin to expire at the end of 2010, while federal stimulus spending will begin to run out a year after that.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger estimates California will run a deficit of $12.4 billion to $14.4 billion when he releases his next spending plan in January. The governor warned that the toughest cuts are ahead.

Calif. 'not out of the woods'
"I think that we are not out of the woods yet," Schwarzenegger said this week.

At the same time, the Legislature is hamstrung by requirements that budget bills and tax increases be passed with a two-thirds majority, a mandate that the report labeled "a recipe for gridlock."

The Pew report was based on data available as of July 31 and scored all 50 states based on revenue changes, unemployment, foreclosures and budget requirements. It also gave them grades. California and Rhode Island scored worst with D-pluses, then New Jersey and Illinois with C-minuses.

In reviewing why some states are suffering more than others, Pew found that the 10 states tend to rely heavily on one type of industry, have a history of persistent budget shortfalls or face legal constraints making it extra difficult to implement major changes, such as tax increases.

Many require a supermajority vote for passing tax increases or budget bills.

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