Lessons are learned from every election

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - Every election matters. Anyone that tells you otherwise doesn't understand politics.

That said, not every election sends sweeping messages that are easy to discern, but every election provides lessons worth learning.

And that brings us to this Tuesday's elections.

Here's the thing: The lessons are already known, no matter the results.

We know that whether Jon Corzine wins or loses, he won't get 50 percent, meaning more than half of the state voted to oust him in a very blue state.

We know that the Republican Party has to deal with two rifts, one that is ideological, the other a battle between the establishment and grassroots. The two rifts are not interchangeable.

We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters — from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in New York's 23rd Congressional District.

And we know that the president's coattails have gotten shorter.

The first evidence, of course, appeared in Georgia late last year. That’s when the Democrat in the Senate runoff got trounced, in spite of Obama’s popularity peak. He simply didn’t have the Obama turnout machine behind him. So even during the best of times, Obama's brand is not always transferable. So why should we believe he can be the difference now?

So it isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages.

The angry independent
Let's start with what should be the biggest lesson: The return of the angry independent.

The one thing Daggett and Hoffman have in common is that they both have anti-establishment, anti-political party credentials. And both used those attributes to gain credibility.

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While lots of folks want to paint 2010 as either a midterm election like 1994 (Democratic over-reach backlash), or 1982 (economic angst), let me suggest that things are looking more like 1992, when a billionaire gadfly galvanized the radical middle.

Distrust in government is running at record highs, as evident in our latest NBC-WSJ poll. Couple that with the economic angst and the fact that Washington looks too cozy with Wall Street, and industry in general, and you have a recipe for a potentially tumultuous electorate.

Candidates who stand up to the establishment and find a reform message will benefit, no matter their party label. Obviously, this isn't easy for incumbents which is why I expect you'll see many looking for ways to take symbolic stands, to send the message they are trying to shake things up.

The elected official who most needs to do this is President Obama. He needs a veto of some Democratic, pork-filled bill. Or a high-profile firing. The fact is there are a lot of "change" voters from 2008 who are still looking for change. Many of these voters are angry independents.

NY 23’s example
The second lesson to come out of these elections is from upstate New York. It is an exaggerated example of what the GOP is facing internally, but it's playing out on the national stage and in the conservative blogosphere.

Doug Hoffman's likely victory in New York’s 23rd District may be the start of the Republican Party finding its grassroots groove, to propel themselves back into the majority by 2012. Or, as Democrats and some DC-based GOP strategists believe, it will be emblematic of a party that has become too insular and too conservative, and has turned off independents to the point where a less-than-popular incumbent president will be able to win re-election in 2012.

Hoffman's likely victory, combined with the forced party switch of Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, has conservatives emboldened, particularly the folks at the Club for Growth. The first half of 2010 is going to be a fight inside the party about finding balance — and whether or not candidates should "fit" districts or states even if it means they aren't down the line conservatives.

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