SNAP ANALYSIS: U.S. envoy led N. Korea back to talks, not action

By Jon Herskovitz

updated 5:28 a.m. ET Dec. 10, 2009

SEOUL - North Korea is likely to respond to a U.S. envoy's visit with a pledge to return to faltering nuclear talks, but chances for progress will be mainly determined by the secretive state's internal political and economic concerns.

Stephen Bosworth said after a three-day visit to Pyongyang that the North shared a common understanding on the need to implement a long-stalled disarmament-for-aid deal. The North did not commit to a return to the six-way talks.

Here is what may result from Bosworth's visit:

North Korea pledges to return to the talks but may muddy the waters with demands including a format change, recognition as a nuclear arms power, dropping of U.N. sanctions or talks on a formal peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean War.

The United States and others will not be satisfied with a simple return to talks and tell the North at least to pick up where it had left off on implementing a previous deal. This means having it resume a stalled project to take apart its Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear plant that makes arms-grade plutonium, and allowing international inspectors back into the country to verify claims Pyongyang made about its nuclear program.

A fresh round of six-party talks is possible, which would ease tension in the economically vital North Asia region, but prospects for a breakthrough are unlikely.

North Korea could see a resumption of pledged aid equal to about $250 million if it follows through on previous commitments while bettering the atmosphere for international humanitarian assistance that slowed to a trickle due to its military moves.

North Korea's troubled $17 billion a year economy has only become weaker due to fresh U.N. sanctions imposed after its nuclear test in May and the suspension of hefty handouts from the South due to Pyongyang's foot dragging in the nuclear dealings.

Leader Kim Jong-il needs cash to win the favor of cadres as he prepares for succession in the communist dynasty and to implement his pledge to rebuild the state's economy by 2012. This may force him to make concessions at the nuclear talks.

Few expect him ever to give up nuclear arms, which his state trumpets as the crowning achievement of his "military-first" rule that has prevented a U.S. invasion.

The biggest concession he may make would be a complete dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear plant.

U.S. President Barack Obama can keep the pressure on North Korea by keeping the status quo because the U.N. sanctions have hurt the North's already depleted coffers and Pyongyang's international finances are already being squeezed by U.S. Treasury action.

North Korea does not like being ignored and it could try to force Obama's hand through military actions such as missile tests, skirmishes with the South or even another nuclear test.

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